TL97 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Models are going to correct north. Why so? Everything looks like a South Jersey Landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 heh. By the way, hard not to lean on the Euro a ton for this winter, given how it handled this storm, and how early it was onto it. GGEM had it first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 ? If anything, it looks like a Delaware Bay hit or so. Not that it really matters. We are all getting crushed. I think it was in jest. :-p Southern New Jersey looks like the eventual "center" landfall. But yea such a large area will be effected by the wind field of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Models are going to correct north. I know its weenie to exrapolate like this, but satellite sure looks like it is moving more NNW than WNW, and I'm ok with that. I'm probably just seeing what I want. But, as everyone has noted, it isn't going to matter that much in the grand scheme of things with this baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think it was in jest. :-p Southern New Jersey looks like the eventual "center" landfall. But yea such a large area will be effected by the wind field of this thing. Somebody's awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I know its weenie to exrapolate like this, but satellite sure looks like it is moving more NNW than WNW, and I'm ok with that. I'm probably just seeing what I want. But, as everyone has noted, it isn't going to matter that much in the grand scheme of things with this baby. You must have Don Cherry's jacket over your eyes then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Somebody's awake. At this stage prolly best to not jest about landfall location changes, or if you must post in banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 anyone else noticing the lull areas filling in on radar as they move west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 sure looks like it's going to come in still tropical https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/262942032555823104/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 You must have Don Cherry's jacket over your eyes then. lol, My neighbor who has a boat tied up at a marina nearby called saying he thought it was coming in south of the NHC track. Looks like it is right on the track to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 You can really see the core "pop" on the last couple frames of this sat loop http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 More out of curiosity than anything and not that I think it matters a ton at this point as the storm has already started, but since its looking likely it comes in still tropical, would NWS hoist hurricane warnings at this point, or would it just muddle things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 With the last hour or so on satellite and radar, this thing looks more organized and stronger. If this comes ashore as a low cat 2 hurricane, which might not be impossible now, and the NHC issued no warnings... oh man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robb Black Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 MD SHA just stated (via twitter) that snow was falling in Garrett County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Great... 11 am HLS from LWX in SPS form says tht hurricane force wind gusts to 70 mph expected with possible gusts to 80 mph in a region including DCA and BAL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 More out of curiosity than anything and not that I think it matters a ton at this point as the storm has already started, but since its looking likely it comes in still tropical, would NWS hoist hurricane warnings at this point, or would it just muddle things? Would just muddle things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Great... 11 am HLS from LWX in SPS form says tht hurricane force wind gusts to 70 mph expected with possible gusts to 80 mph in a region including DCA and BAL... And increases in rain totals... worst time windwise expected to be 6pm tonight to 6am Tues when all our power will go out and we play a game called pop goes your power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Would just muddle things... Thanks...kind of a moot point now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Would just muddle things... Agree about the muddle. Save it for the congressional hearings - they will work it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And increases in rain totals... worst time windwise expected to be 6pm tonight to 6am Tues when all our power will go out and we play a game called pop goes your power Kind of disappointing in that I'd much prefer to have the highest winds during the day when we can actually see things happening. I still hold out hope that power outages will be less than expected. I have a good feeling about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 AND POSSIBLY 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT A REGION LOCATED BETWEEN BEL AIR MD...POINT LOOKOUT MD...AND HAGERSTOWN MD BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Here's my opinion. Who, beyond this board, cares that it comes in as a "tropical" system or not? What difference does it make to the people the NWS is supposed to forecast for? If the storm is going to produce a hurricane-like wind field and hurricane-like storm surge, who cares if it's not a tropical system at landfall? Just issue the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 CHANGES SINCE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ---------------------------------- * THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WINDS FROM SANDY ARE NOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. * RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED. THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO AREA IS NOW FORECAST TO RECEIVE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * THE POTOMAC RIVER IS LIKELY TO GO INTO FLOOD STAGE BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 AND POSSIBLY 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT A REGION LOCATED BETWEEN BEL AIR MD...POINT LOOKOUT MD...AND HAGERSTOWN MD BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS. Like Yoda said, this was updated too... RAINFALL AND FLOODING --------------------- * 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF THE BAY. * 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FREDERICK... WASHINGTON AND FREDERICKSBURG METRO AREAS. * 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DC METRO COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WESTERN MARYLAND WEST OF HANCOCK MD. * THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE AND DANGEROUS FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 hurricane hunters getting 99 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Anybody know what the all time record highest gust ever recorded at DCA is. Been looking for it but cant find it. 98 miles per hour during Hurricane Hazel on (Friday) October 15, 1954; see http://www.washingto...1ZtdJ_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wes Check your PMs ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 hurricane hunters getting 99 mph winds. Clean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 SmartCast Update 29/15Z-30/15Z Groton, Bridgeport, Long Island, JFK, Atlantic City, Nantucket will see potential for the strongest wind fields of 60-80MPH over the next 6-12 Hours. La Guardia Region: Winds will be NE at 35-45MPH with Gusts between 55-60MPH through next 24 hours. Mdt-Heavy rain throughout the day. Max 24-hour precip accumulation will be 1.72”, Max wind gust will be 59MPH. Newark Region: Winds will be NE at 35-40MPH with Gusts between 50-55MPH. Moderate to Heavy rainfall throughout the day. Average rainfall rates will be around .15” per hour. Max 24-Hour precip accumulation will be 2.01”, Max wind gust will be 52MPH. Nantucket Region: Winds will be NE at 50-55MPH with gusts 70-80MPH. Max wind gust will be 80MPH. BWI Region: Winds will be WNW at 35-40MPH, with gusts between 50-55MPH. Rainfall rates of .42” per hour from 15Z-22Z, then down to .20” per hour til 30/15Z. 24-Hour Precip accumulation will be 4.85”, Max wind gust of 52MPH. DC/Dover/Andrews/Langley Region: Winds will be 35-40MPH with gusts up to 55-60MPH. Rainfall rates around .46” per hour through 19Z, then .30” per hour through 04Z. 24-Hour Precip Accumulation around 4.2 to 4.85”, Max wind gusts of 62MPH. Long Island Region: Winds will be 40-45MPH with gusts up to 60-65MPH. Max wind gust expected is around 65MPH. Full output hour by hour uploaded: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 98 miles per hour during Hurricane Hazel on (Friday) October 15, 1954; see http://www.washingto...1ZtdJ_blog.html Thanks! Dont think thats going to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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