yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 oh hai BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 70.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES Wasn't the low on recent model runs 951? Edit: Just saw that the GFS had landfall of 948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Convergence zone over the lower Chesapeake Bay has experienced at least 15 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. More rain there is likely. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Hurricane models look slightly south showing a Delaware hit or far S NJ landfall. Either way, we're only talking a few miles here. Couldn't believe it when winds were increased to 85. Might be more intensification to come. WOW. It's going to be rocking here soon. 947 mb!! *EDIT - 6z GFS slightly south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon just found 941mb pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Precip totals on the 06Z look comparable to the 00Z when you take into account what has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon just found 941mb pressure 941.8, though extrapolated down from flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon just found 941mb pressure Good morning! Where can one find the up to date recon info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The Wall is approaching fast. Bout to get rough out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Power outages should start in next 4 hrs or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like the turn west is happening. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/java-swir-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It seems some of the modeling for Sandy's pressures might end up being right. Perhaps not the 920's but 930's seem attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It looks like this evening peak winds and then a lull. 100kts at 850 over DCA at 00z. Probably a 6hr period of very strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It looks like this evening peak winds and then a lull. 100kts at 850 over DCA at 00z. Probably a 6hr period of very strong winds. I guess the "good news" of a nearby landfall is the possibility of the center being so close we might get a lull. I'd welcome that during the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 It looks like this evening peak winds and then a lull. 100kts at 850 over DCA at 00z. Probably a 6hr period of very strong winds. The weather channel just siad that there was an extrapolated pressure of 941 mb though the official pressure with the storm is 946 so it did strengthen during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It looks like this evening peak winds and then a lull. 100kts at 850 over DCA at 00z. Probably a 6hr period of very strong winds. I guess the "good news" of a nearby landfall is the possibility of the center being so close we might get a lull. I'd welcome that during the overnight hours. the only problem is that by that point...the damage may already be done. Would the winds pick up again after the "lull"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 the only problem is that by that point...the damage may already be done. Would the winds pick up again after the "lull"? I agree with you regarding the damage. I have just not been looking forward to the high wind gusts during the overnight hours tonight. I still expect it's going to be bad though. I'm sure that your question is directed toward Coastal, but my understanding is that they would pick up again, but with the storm weakening after landfall, any few hours that we can avoid the high winds would be a bonus (as far as I am concerned anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The weather channel just siad that there was an extrapolated pressure of 941 mb though the official pressure with the storm is 946 so it did strengthen during the night. the only problem is that by that point...the damage may already be done. Would the winds pick up again after the "lull"? Yep, this will be a big blow. KML, I just meant that you guys probably won't see 70mph gusts all night because the 850 and 925 lows should move close by near Midnight. Would think winds increase again from the south towards morning. But this evening looks wild there with heavy rain and everything, This is given current track. Eastern MD will be windy all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That heavy band of rain could really bring down gusts near 00z and 03z tonight. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yep, this will be a big blow. KML, I just meant that you guys probably won't see 70mph gusts all night because the 850 and 925 lows should move close by near Midnight. Would think winds increase again from the south towards morning. But this evening looks wild there with heavy rain and everything, This is given current track. Eastern MD will be windy all night. Thanks for the response! Again, cannot stress how much us DC folks appreciate you popping in. What an incredible evolution scientifically. Guess this will be one for the textbooks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yep, this will be a big blow. KML, I just meant that you guys probably won't see 70mph gusts all night because the 850 and 925 lows should move close by near Midnight. Would think winds increase again from the south towards morning. But this evening looks wild there with heavy rain and everything, This is given current track. Eastern MD will be windy all night. The 850 wind for DCA is 105 kts at 00Z At my house the 925 mb is 80 and it does look that stable below that level so this will be real deal or so it seems. I just hope no tree falls on my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We all hope you and everyone else stays safe through all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 850 wind for DCA is 105 kts at 00Z At my house the 925 mb is 80 and it does look that stable below that level so this will be real deal or so it seems. I just hope no tree falls on my house. That's just unreal. Stay safe down there guys and gals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 We all hope you and everyone else stays safe through all this. My sentiments exactly. The GFS has us well into the 5 inch plus contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 850 wind for DCA is 105 kts at 00Z At my house the 925 mb is 80 and it does look that stable below that level so this will be real deal or so it seems. I just hope no tree falls on my house. Yeah this looks rough for you guys, and I would imagine the eastern shore of MD with warmer waters allow for even greater mixing there. Even if there was a strong inversion, rule of thumb imo is 100kts at 850 will give you strong winds no matter what. 105kts and the ability to mix somewhat like you guys have, that should be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I guess the "good news" of a nearby landfall is the possibility of the center being so close we might get a lull. I'd welcome that during the overnight hours. Yeah, but the bad news is the LLJ rotates overhead beforehand..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My sentiments exactly. The GFS has us well into the 5 inch plus contour. I plan on checking my rain gauge at noon. It should be quite full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yeah this looks rough for you guys, and I would imagine the eastern shore of MD with warmer waters allow for even greater mixing there. Even if there was a strong inversion, rule of thumb imo is 100kts at 850 will give you strong winds no matter what. 105kts and the ability to mix somewhat like you guys have, that should be wild. I've never seen winds like that on a sounding for this area before so it's uncharted territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm legitimately kind of scared. I live in a basement studio apartment...kinda wondering if the drain on my enclosed porch area will handle the water before it gets to my door. Can't believe she strengthened overnight. Amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I saw mention of Sting jets in the New England thread a day or two ago and maybe being a possibility with this storm of bringing strong winds down to the surface. To my limited knowledge it looks as if the setup isn't conducive of this but I was wondering the take of any Mets who may have some knowledge on the subject. With those high winds just off the surface it could possibly be a major concern for a limited area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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