EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That is one heck of a map. Saving this image to remember for the rest of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 00Z GFS might be the worst hit yet. It really clobbers us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If winds can work down to surface, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 00Z GFS might be the worst hit yet. It really clobbers us. tomorrow afternoon and evening are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bw26 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm new to alot of this - but the new 00z GFS moves to HEAVY snow quite a bit south into southern WV and southwestern VA, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 00Z GFS might be the worst hit yet. It really clobbers us. And watching satellite fire convection at the center and Atlanta predicting trop storm force gusts...this is beyond the real deal. If you haven't fully prepared your property and yourself then please get up at dawn and finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If winds can work down to surface, wow Wow, that's crazy. Definitely the biggest run yet for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And watching satellite fire convection at the center and Atlanta predicting trop storm force gusts...this is beyond the real deal. If you haven't fully prepared your property and yourself then please get up at dawn and finish. I have prepared my body by filing it with beer and pizza. It will not be affected by the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The latest gfs is serious and not a fantasy. It is the most accurate irt potential impact. No chances should be taken. Our only widespread threat to life and property is trees. Solid advice is to not expose yourself to that risk for any reason for 48 hours. People in flood area should already know what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Very possible BWI and/or DCA could match all-time record low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have prepared my body by filing it with beer and pizza. It will not be affected by the winds. This board needs a thumbs-up or like button... hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have prepared my body by filing it with beer and pizza. It will not be affected by the winds. Our only difference is bourban. I highly recommend it. Even if the wind did affect...you wouldn't feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 700 mb on the GFS for 2 p.m. tomorrow: 5 p.m.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Very possible BWI and/or DCA could match all-time record low pressure. I believe I saw in one of LWX's discussions that the all-time record low pressure at BWI, IAD, and DCA was set in the March 1993 Superstorm. Around 960mb or just above. So this could get very close or break it, yeah. Lowest pressure I experienced was in Cleveland, OH...during the Jan. 26-27, 1978 blizzard...957mb. If the winds from this event at its peak are anything like that storm...oh, boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I just remembered I got a Kestrel 4500NV Pocket Weather Tracker for my bday and just brought it out... would it be any good for wind measurements since it can take them? And wow, no thanks 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm not even in the direct path like y'all up there in NOVA and MD, but that newest GFS run really cranks the downsloping NW winds here in western VA. 850mb winds are 80-100kts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Starting to show signs she might be starting the westward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I give most of us till noon or so before our power starts going out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 plz keep banter in banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Even out here in the valley GFS gives over 80knts at 900mb with moderate precip falling. Probably the most destructive run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 70.5W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 i feel like there's been nothing new on the forecast for days.. oh look nj with a giganto storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 i feel like there's been nothing new on the forecast for days.. oh look nj with a giganto storm Can chuck it in with Snowpocalypse as one of the great perfectly-modeled megastorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy will have sustained winds of 80 mph at 5am AL, 18, 2012102906, , BEST, 0, 352N, 705W, 70, 950, HU, 34, NEQ, 420, 330, 360, 270, 1004, 500, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, AL, 18, 2012102906, , BEST, 0, 352N, 705W, 70, 950, HU, 50, NEQ, 150, 150, 200, 150, 1004, 500, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, AL, 18, 2012102906, , BEST, 0, 352N, 705W, 70, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 150, 0, 1004, 500, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Zone Forcasts now state wind gusts of 70 to 75 mph in MD east of Frederick County (including them) all of SE MD... all of NE MD... and including DC/Arlington and King George VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 For posterity (cut out Marine/Aviation sections) AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 311 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE SANDY IS APPROXIMATELY 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON D.C. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY...AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TONIGHT. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK INLAND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THIS LARGE STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/... 06Z IAD SNDG IS IN. THE STORM IS MAKING NRLY PROGRESS AT 10-15 KT. CURRENT HPC FCST CONT TO TAKE THE STORM IN SRN NJ. THIS IS AN EXPANSIVE STORM. RGNL RDR SHOWS THE HVIER RAIN BANDS HV MOVED ONTO THE ERN SHORE AND WL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE BAY INTO ST. MARY`S-ANNE ARUNDEL B4 DAWN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY...AND KEEP GOING DOWNHILL AFTER THAT. ALL THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN OUR GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. A SUMMARY OF WHAT TO EXPECT: RAINFALL/FLOODING...WILL BE DISCUSSED IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. FLOOD THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT. PLEASE REFER TO THAT. WINDS...HIGH WIND WARNING STARTS AT 8 AM TODAY IN ALL AREAS... THOUGH IN SOME OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS IT MAY STILL BE CLOSER TO NOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS WINDS IS EXPECTED...LASTING LIKELY WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDS WILL DO DAMAGE AND CREATE POWER OUTAGES. SNOWFALL. XPCT COLD AIR TO WRAP ARND THE SWRN SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT HV BEEN WRESTLING WITH HOW MUCH. THERMALLY CONDS LOOK MARGINAL...BUT DYNAMICALLY IT LOOKS IDEAL. CANNOT IGNORE BUFKIT PTYPE OUTPUT NOR SREF GDNC ALL POINTING TO COPIOUS SNOW. BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT IN THE FAR WRN SXN OF THE CWA. THIS WL BE A DANGEROUS COMBO AS HEAVY SNOW WL BE COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS. WL BE RUNNING WITH 6-12 INCHES THROUGH TUE. E OF THE WESTERN FRONT...THE SNOW THREAT IS LOW. TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING...WILL BE DISCUSSED IN TIDAL/COASTAL SECTION BELOW. THIS THREAT IS VERY COMPLEX SO REFER TO THAT SECTION FOR A DETAILED DISCUSSION. BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE STORM CENTER IS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SUITE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER BULLETINS/WARNINGS FOR EVEN MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE IMPENDING STORM. PLEASE TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY...THIS IS GOING TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE ARE CONCERNED BECAUSE THE MDLS ARE IN CONSENSUS REGARDING THE CUTOFF LOW STALLING OVR CENTRAL MD TUE. HVY RAINS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLD THREAT. PRVS SHIFTS DID AN XCLNT HYDRO SXN...WHICH IS BLO. THERE RMNS PTNTL FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ON IMPACTS...WHICH LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT. IT`S PRETTY AMAZING TO SEE THAT JUST LAST YR - OCT 29/30...A NOR`EASTER BROUGHT HVY WET SNOW FM THE HIGHER ELEVS OF ERN W.V./WRN MD TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES IN THE NERN U.S. FEAR IS THIS IMPACT WL HAPPEN AGN. METEOROLOGICALLY THIS STORM IS SOMEWHAT UNCHARTERED TERRITORY...AND SNOWFALL AMTS ARE DIFFICULT TO GET AN EXACT HANDLE ON. ELEVATION LOOKS TO BE A KEY FACTOR. FOR NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT 2000 FT AS BEING THE KEY HGT. IN HIGHLAND CO THE TOWN OF MONTEREY IS AT 2900 FT. DRIVING N TO PENDLETON CO THE ELEVATION IN FRANKLIN IS 1800 FT - THIS COULD LEAD TO BIG DIFFERENCES IN TOTALS FOR TOWNS JUST 21 MILES APART. THE THREAT OF UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES THRU MUCH OF THE WK...PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF PRECIPITATION MAKING IT EVEN BEYOND THE WESTERN FRONT INTO THE REST OF THE HIGHLANDS... MAYBE EVEN UP TO THE BLUE RIDGE. E OF THE MTNS...2ND HALF OF THE WK WILL BE THE CALM AFTER THE STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. && .HYDROLOGY... WE HV 5-9 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE I-270 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN MARYLAND. AMOUNTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER CLOSE TO THE BAY. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS AND RAPPAHANNOCK BASIN...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF JUST 1-3 INCHES IN THE STAUNTON/WAYNESBORO/ CHARLOTTESVILLE/HARRISONBURG AREAS. OUR RAINFALL PROJECTIONS HAVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN PER SIX HOUR PERIOD FOR 24 HOURS IN THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. SOME FLASH FLOODING WOULD OCCUR IF MORE THAN THIS IS EXPECTED...AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE FALLEN LEAVES /OR PERHAPS OTHER WIND-DRIVEN DEBRIS/ MAY CLOG DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. THESE FACTORS ALSO APPLY FOR LONGER-DURATION STREAM FLOODING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND LENGTHY... EVEN ON STREAMS THAT ARE USUALLY FAST TO RISE AND FALL. THE FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE TONIGHT. THE SMALLER STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN WE TURN ATTENTION TO THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...FIVE OF THOSE POINTS /CONOCOCHEAGUE...MONOCACY...OPEQUON...SENECA...AND ANTIETAM/ ARE FORECAST TO GO TO FLOOD. WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDING THAT IN THE FLOOD WATCH BUT WARNING DECISIONS WILL LIKELY COME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IF THE FORECASTS HOLD...WHICH SO FAR...THEY HAVE. IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE CREST MAY NOT GET DOWN TO LITTLE FALLS UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sheets of rain at 9 hrs DCA and to the N and E per 06z NAM... 3" rain DCA and to the N and E by 2 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 6z NAM shifted south prob 40 miles or so into S NJ... 960mb at landfall. At 24 hrs... 968mb in S PA near Mason-Dixon line... heavy heavy rain Precip through 27 (still more to come) is 5"+ along a line from FDK to EZF and east of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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