usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like we have model consensus into central NJ/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 ANyone know how much rain the euro gave us. The gfs looks like 3-5 while the nam more than 5. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks for re-starting the updates thread, wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Latest pressure from Sandy this morning is 951mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wes, when I looked at the gfs qpf it showed most of us in the 5-10" window color and 4" pretty much everywhere else. NAM is crazy. I'm not trying to split hairs at all. It just looked to me that widespread 5"+ totals are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Also High Wind Watches now upgraded to High Wind Warnings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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Another unusual thing about sandy is the heaviest precip totals are all very near or south of the center. IIRC landfalling tropical cyclones typically deteriorate into an oblong shield with the heaviest precip to the NW of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ANyone know how much rain the euro gave us. The gfs looks like 3-5 while the nam more than 5. Just curious. from i95 west about 30-40 miles 5-6, i95 to del border 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 from i95 west about 30-40 miles 5-6, i95 to del border 6-8 Was that total for the whole thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 from i95 west about 30-40 miles 5-6, i95 to del border 6-8 Nice to see you around again. You kick ass with euro data in the winter and we thank you. I tried piecing together the euro track in the SNE forum but got tired. I know the euro does the same central NJ lf. How far south does the center track as it moves west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nice to see you around again. You kick ass with euro data in the winter and we thank you. I tried piecing together the euro track in the SNE forum but got tired. I know the euro does the same central NJ lf. How far south does the center track as it moves west? I think i saw north central MD on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Was that total for the whole thing? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think i saw north central MD on the 0z run. yea it pretty much rides the pa/md border then rotates south by hagerstown then over dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 yea it pretty much rides the pa/md border then rotates south by hagerstown then over dc Thanks. GFS/NAM combo pretty much the same thing. That's part of the sheer madness with Sandy. She just parks for a bit and spins herself to near death before deciding to move north. I guess I'm forced to believe it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Another unusual thing about sandy is the heaviest precip totals are all very near or south of the center. IIRC landfalling tropical cyclones typically deteriorate into an oblong shield with the heaviest precip to the NW of the center. And yet, it looks like a nice little PRE setting up over Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Does anyone know if MD Transportation Authority has ever closed the I-95 / I-895 tunnels? I found references to possibly closing them when Irene went through (if pumps couldn't keep up.) Gotta be on the roads Mon afternoon + Tue morning and suspect the Key Bridge will be closed. Thus, trying to figure out plan B and possibly plan C. I strongly recommend not driving around. I'm pretty much 100% certain someone will be killed by a falling tree while driving around unnecessarily. I almost got my dumb ass killed during the July 2009 storm when a branch came through my roof in my dining room. It stopped less than 6 inches from my head. Sounded like a gunshot and showered me with drywall and insulation. I chose to stand by the glass door to watch while my family was safe in my lower level family room. I've replayed that in my mind literally 1000's of times. I will NEVER put myself in harms way again unless it is absolutely necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like we have model consensus into central NJ/ The latest tracks I'm seeing have shifted south...southern NJ or even DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I strongly recommend not driving around. I'm pretty much 100% certain someone will be killed by a falling tree while driving around unnecessarily. I almost got my dumb ass killed during the July 2009 storm when a branch came through my roof in my dining room. It stopped less than 6 inches from my head. Sounded like a gunshot and showered me with drywall and insulation. I chose to stand by the glass door to watch while my family was safe in my lower level family room. I've replayed that in my mind literally 1000's of times. I will NEVER put myself in harms way again unless it is absolutely necessary. Agree with this. That's pretty scary having a branch almost fall on top of you. It's no fun to drive around unless you have to during such an event. Standing water, trees/power lines down, etc. That said, I have the car gassed up just in case it's needed for an emergency. I had to travel the day after the derecho event, tank was kind of low. Not that I was planning in advance of a derecho, of course! With the power out damn near everywhere, there was nothing open for quite a distance, and I was getting nervous about running on empty. I was going up toward Philly, and finally was able to find a place up in northeast MD, after the low gas light had been on for a little while. At least this storm, one can anticipate and plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How often do extra-tropical cyclones make landfall as hurricane status? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The latest tracks I'm seeing have shifted south...southern NJ or even DE. Yeah most of the tropical models at 12z came in far southern NJ or DE, although i do not know if the tropical models mean anything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The latest tracks I'm seeing have shifted south...southern NJ or even DE. I thought they just consolidated into a narrower envelope. At least with the latest nam/gfs/euro combo. Which reliable model did you see pressing towards DE? On another note...the Euro has done something nothing short of amazing with Sandy. I think it all came down to properly handling the block. I'm going to keep that in the front of my mind this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah most of the tropical models at 12z came in far southern NJ or DE, although i do not know if the tropical models mean anything anymore. NHC's track looks slightly north of what they had before, but still landfall in central NJ. Maybe it appears "farther north" because once its inland, they take it into central PA rather than across northeast MD. But at this point, I don't think that makes much difference in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I thought they just consolidated into a narrower envelope. At least with the latest nam/gfs/euro combo. Which reliable model did you see pressing towards DE? On another note...the Euro has done something nothing short of amazing with Sandy. I think it all came down to properly handling the block. I'm going to keep that in the front of my mind this winter. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 A track near Southern NJ would be better I think for the MA as far as winds go because 850 LLJ is displaced well sw of low center. Further north track would actually be worse, meaning stronger winds. FWIW we were thinking potential 60kt gusts perhaps isolated 65kt gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Another unusual thing about sandy is the heaviest precip totals are all very near or south of the center. IIRC landfalling tropical cyclones typically deteriorate into an oblong shield with the heaviest precip to the NW of the center. But those storms are usually moving north and east and are with the best frontogenetic forcing. Here the storm turns west due to the upper low and the cold air associated with it. With Sandy being a hybrid warm core system, the best temp contrast and frontogenesis is on the south side. weird but logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FWIW I was trying to get an opinion from a met on this earlier: do these tropical/cane models hold any weight whatsoever at this point? Technically, the NHC cone still leaves open the possibility of this landing anywhere from Ocean City to the Hamptons. I was telling some of the RIC people that this doesn't matter as much for NOVA/MD/DE/NJ/E PA but the weather on the edges (down here and parts of SNE) sort of hinges on landfall position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 The latest tracks I'm seeing have shifted south...southern NJ or even DE. I thought the euro was central but didn't have very good resolution. It did seem like the gfs shifted south some. They all are clustered close enough together that it doesn't seem to make much difference except that the southern track gives us bob's 5 inch plus amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I thought the euro was central but didn't have very good resolution. It did seem like the gfs shifted south some. They all are clustered close enough together that it doesn't seem to make much difference except that the southern track gives us bob's 5 inch plus amounts. I think he was talking about the tropical models not the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 A track near Southern NJ would be better I think for the MA as far as winds go because 850 LLJ is displaced well sw of low center. Further north track would actually be worse, meaning stronger winds. FWIW we were thinking potential 60kt gusts perhaps isolated 65kt gusts. I think that's probably right though as it approaches and leaves, we'll still get plenty of winds. It also depends on the stability some and the closer we get to the storm and the heavier the showers, the better chance I think of transporting the winds to the surface but.....I'm no expert on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think that's probably right though as it approaches and leaves, we'll still get plenty of winds. It also depends on the stability some and the closer we get to the storm and the heavier the showers, the better chance I think of transporting the winds to the surface but.....I'm no expert on it. The showers may be key in mixing that down. It could be one of those deals where sustained winds aren't strong, but you get these fitfull gusts from nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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