dmac Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BWI: 71 DCA: 66 IAD: 60 WV: 27in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DCA - 66 BWI - 72 IAD - 68 34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DCA 53 BWI 61 IAD 66 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DCA 53 BWI 61 IAD 66 17" looks like you're the new Woody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 looks like you're the new Woody! To be blunt...yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DCA: 69 IAD: 69 BWI: 69 Tiebreaker: 34.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DCA: 65 IAD: 55 BWI: 65 Tiebreak: 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 DCA: 74 IAD: 71 BWI: 79 Tiebreak: 33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DC. 64 IAD. 58 BWI. 71 Snow - 42" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Contest closed and 33 entries. Pretty big spread top to bottom. It's going to be a wild 48 hours. I'll post the final results after my power comes back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Damn. I missed it. I hope the lowest gus winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Because I'm a # geek...I averaged each column. It would be pretty cool if the averages end up being the closest to verification. DCA: 66.82 IAD: 64.45 BWI: 71.73 Snow: 28.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Contest closed and 33 entries. Pretty big spread top to bottom. It's going to be a wild 48 hours. I'll post the final results after my power comes back on. I like eagle mans tie breaker number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 If guidance continue its current trend through landfall then 5alarm and biggerboat have the best odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If guidance continue its current trend through landfall then 5alarm and biggerboat have the best odds. I don't know, Bob. Well into the 80s seems a real stretch to me. But I'm just a scab so I don't know a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 I would love to easily agree with you mattie and yes, it really doesn't seem "possible" at all but...if 925mb winds are screaming at 100+mph then it's actually in the realm of "possible". July 2010 was estimated at 60-65mph in my immediate area. The derecho speaks for itself. Adding 15-20mph on top of that is downright frightening. It all seems so surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Damn. I missed it. I hope the lowest gus winds. I believe that MN Transplant won it. Out my way, about 5 miles east of Dulles, it was truly the perfect storm -- lots of excitement, with a 30-second power outage and no damage whatever. The peak wind gust at Dulles was 54 mph, compared with 71 mph during the June derecho. Also, the maximum sustained wind speed there was only 39 mph, compared with 59 mph in the derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I believe that MN Transplant won it. Out my way, about 5 miles east of Dulles, it was truly the perfect storm -- lots of excitement, with a 30-second power outage and no damage whatever. The peak wind gust at Dulles was 54 mph, compared with 71 mph during the June derecho. Also, the maximum sustained wind speed there was only 39 mph, compared with 59 mph in the derecho. Unfortunately, no. My initial forecast would have won (which is in the spreadsheet), but I edited before the deadline. D'oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 I have the results done. I just want to verify the #'s. I pulled verification #'s off of srh.noaa climate page. DCA:61 BWI: 60 IAD: 54 Are these correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I have the results done. I just want to verify the #'s. I pulled verification #'s off of srh.noaa climate page. DCA:61 BWI: 60 IAD: 54 Are these correct? thats what i read as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Verification results. Congrats to veteran member leesburg04 for taking top spot, MN Transplant a close second and BTJustice for rounding out the top 3. I should have made my guesses before the last model suite because it threw me off and had me believing we were going to get pounded. Glad we didn't though. I've dealt with enough tree damage. I'll host the first accum snow contest. Maybe we get lucky this year and have it happen in Nov. The -NAO seems like a permanent feature the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Unfortunately, no. My initial forecast would have won (which is in the spreadsheet), but I edited before the deadline. D'oh. Aha, got sucked in by the hype, huh? But you get points for honesty -- you could have pulled an Anthony Weiner and claimed: SOMEONE HACKED MY ACCOUNT AND EDITED MY PICKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Because im good like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Didn't win but not too shabby. Beat fxw176 so that is all that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Didn't win but not too shabby. Beat fxw176 so that is all that matters I beat Aviationdave. That's really all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Verification results. Congrats to veteran member leesburg04 for taking top spot, MN Transplant a close second and BTJustice for rounding out the top 3. While I recognize that you stated -- "Closest to the total wins it all" -- as an objective third party it seems to me that BTJustice should have been judged the winner. His predictions were better than leesburg 04's for DCA and IAD, and the same for BWI. Overall, his three individual picks deviated from the actuals by 6, 3, and 1 (total 10), whereas leesburg 04's three individual picks deviated from the actuals by 8, 12, and 1 (total 21). MN Transplant's original picks deviated from the actuals by a total of only 9, but his revised picks deviated from the actuals by 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 While I recognize that you stated -- "Closest to the total wins it all" -- as an objective third party it seems to me that BTJustice should have been judged the winner. His predictions were better than leesburg 04's for DCA and IAD, and the same for BWI. Overall, his three individual picks deviated from the actuals by 6, 3, and 1 (total 10), whereas leesburg 04's three individual picks deviated from the actuals by 8, 12, and 1 (total 21). MN Transplant's original picks deviated from the actuals by a total of only 9, but his revised picks deviated from the actuals by 20. I was reading this Rodney, and believe it is an excellent point. Knowing climatology and figuring out the forecast based on this storm's situation would indicate that BT deserves the win, because his overall deviation was the best. Additionally, if the contest winner was to be Leesburg, then we should've just guessed a cumulative number. I'm with you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I want to thank RodneyS and ddweatherman for their support. I had a long acceptance speech already prepared. I'm challenging the ruling on the field here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I went low-- did well. A little too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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