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Sandy Prediction Contest


Parsley

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DE 77 (WNW general)

MD 75 (WNW BWI)

PA 83 (NNW near PHL)

NJ 115 (ENE near Asbury Park)

Not being in your region, I am unfamiliar with extent of PHL rain network, but I am predicting storm totals of 15-20 inches in parts of eastern PA and northwest NJ, possibly north central NJ, so will enter 17.5 inches here, location near Easton

This is all based on a north central NJ landfall. Obviously DE would go higher for gusts if it turns out to be closer to them.

(note, edited rainfall max from 20-25, 22.5 to current numbers, at 10:05 EDT Sunday)

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Here are the peak ASOS gusts that are known at this time:

NJ

ACY 64

MIV 44

TEB 72

DE

KILG 58

PA

KPHL 68

KPNE 66

KPTW 59

MPO 59

VAY has been offline since around 7pm last night, but they reported a 54mph gust in one of the last updates. A nearby wx station showed two 62mph gusts btwn 8-9pm, but low confidence in those reports...

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VAY has been offline since around 7pm last night, but they reported a 54mph gust in one of the last updates. A nearby wx station showed two 62mph gusts btwn 8-9pm, but low confidence in those reports...

Probably right. These stations appear to have lost power, but look like they are the max for each state:

ABE - 70

EWR - 78

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a bit stronger than i thought wind wise. nearly 80mphin ewr. i thought wed peak in the mid 70s. judging by nearby stations i probably hit 65 to 70 mph here in monmouth. im without power as is most of the county. my anemometer peaked at 43mph but its blocked from the ne by my house. im sure i wouldve recorded 60 or higher since its up at 25 feet. tree damage is incredible.

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OK, I think we can declare a final outcome for wind:

PA: 70

NJ: 78

DE: 58

Total error, ordered winner to loser wink.png :

Maximum lawman: 13

allman15: 14

ThunderRoad (revised): 19

Isotherm: 21

DavidK: 21

famartin: 22

RedSky: 25

Stebo: 27

cast4: 28

Quakertown needs snow: 29

Parsley: 30

Obones63: 31

chubbs: 38

Spanks45: 39

Engine2211: 40

ThunderRoad (original): 40

tombo82685: 48

iceman56: 48

Roger Smith: 69

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OK, I think we can declare a final outcome for wind:

PA: 70

NJ: 78

DE: 58

Total error, ordered winner to loser wink.png :

Maximum lawman: 13

allman15: 14

ThunderRoad (revised): 19

Isotherm: 21

DavidK: 21

famartin: 22

RedSky: 25

Stebo: 27

cast4: 28

Quakertown needs snow: 29

Parsley: 30

Obones63: 31

chubbs: 38

Spanks45: 39

Engine2211: 40

ThunderRoad (original): 40

tombo82685: 48

iceman56: 48

Roger Smith: 69

ray do i get bonus pts for missing the max wind by your home station by 4 mph.

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Cool-Ray, where do I pick up my check?

The irony is that I went low on the winds (my experience is that winds very rarely ever verify) and then lost power for two days from the wind. Winds were absolutely howling here on the main line and I bet they never got much over the mid-40s sustained. Makes me wonder what it sounded like to be in Homestead for Andrew--probably like the end of the world

OK, I think we can declare a final outcome for wind:

PA: 70

NJ: 78

DE: 58

Total error, ordered winner to loser wink.png :

Maximum lawman: 13

allman15: 14

ThunderRoad (revised): 19

Isotherm: 21

DavidK: 21

famartin: 22

RedSky: 25

Stebo: 27

cast4: 28

Quakertown needs snow: 29

Parsley: 30

Obones63: 31

chubbs: 38

Spanks45: 39

Engine2211: 40

ThunderRoad (original): 40

tombo82685: 48

iceman56: 48

Roger Smith: 69

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