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Sandy Prediction Contest


Parsley

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Trying to keep this simple....

Predict the highest wind GUST (mph) for each state (ASOS only).

PA:

NJ:

DE:

Predict highest rainfall total recorded in the PHI NWS area (this could be ASOS, CoCoRaHS, etc.)

Rain Total:

Crap, you beat me, I was gonna do something like this:

Peak gusts for these groups:

Outer coastal plain - GED, WWD, ACY, BLM

Inner coastal plain - DOV, MIV, VAY, WRI, NEL

Fall line - ILG, PHL, PNE, TTN

Piedmont - PTW, RDG, DYL, ABE, SMQ

Ridge and Valley - MPO, FWN, 12N

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In terms of unofficial gusts, I think we'll see some reports 85-90mph gusts along the immediate shore of New Jersey and potentially the south coast of LI as well. Officially, for ASOS, I do believe the coastal stations will achieve hurricane force gusts, but probably not by a lot. However, they will frequently gust to hurricane force for a 24+ hr period of time which is very damaging.

NJ - 75mph

DE - 68mph

PA - 62mph

Inland gusts tend to be overestimated a bit with most situations; I think the majority of folks in E PA will peak in the 55-60mph range for gusts. NJ inland generally 60-70mph, and coast like BLM, ACY, etc, probably 70-80mph.

Highest rainfall total - 9.25"

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In terms of unofficial gusts, I think we'll see some reports 85-90mph gusts along the immediate shore of New Jersey and potentially the south coast of LI as well. Officially, for ASOS, I do believe the coastal stations will achieve hurricane force gusts, but probably not by a lot. However, they will frequently gust to hurricane force for a 24+ hr period of time which is very damaging.

NJ - 75mph

DE - 68mph

PA - 62mph

Inland gusts tend to be overestimated a bit with most situations; I think the majority of folks in E PA will peak in the 55-60mph range for gusts. NJ inland generally 60-70mph, and coast like BLM, ACY, etc, probably 70-80mph.

I suspect there'll be one or two reports of winds gusting to near 90 mph at the immediate coast. But that's not where the ASOS sites are... :whistle:

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I suspect there'll be one or two reports of winds gusting to near 90 mph at the immediate coast. But that's not where the ASOS sites are... whistle.gif

Yeah as I mentioned in the NYC thread, the actual peak wind gusts are not the biggest problem, it's the fact that will be gusting to this level for a long time. Coupled with saturated ground via 4"+ of rain, trees may come down.

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I suspect there'll be one or two reports of winds gusting to near 90 mph at the immediate coast. But that's not where the ASOS sites are... whistle.gif

I agree with you and Isotherm (on the higher gusts). I just took the ASOS route because you know PHI will do a "highest gust" list when all is said and done, as well as a rain totals.

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if coastal waters of DE and NJ (i.e. Delaware Bay) count, then...

Predict the highest wind GUST (mph) for each state (ASOS only).

PA: 67 mph

NJ: 86 mph 77 mph

DE: 87 mph 73 mph

Predict highest rainfall total recorded in the PHI NWS area (this could be ASOS, CoCoRaHS, etc.)

Rain Total: 11.06"

Edit: d'oh, you said ASOS only. Use revised numbers. (As Ray said, 85-90 mph gusts right along the shore and on the Delaware Bay itself are totally possible, but they won't be picked up by an ASOS.)

(Even though it wouldn't be an ASOS, does Bader Field have any weather observing site at all?)

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Yeah, good point. I think we can grandfather that one in.

Sorry - deleted original post, just wanted to make sure by calling it Wildwood Airport that it was correct, it is actually called Wildwood Cape May County Airport:

Here is the ASOS site I was talking about: http://w1.weather.go...story/KWWD.html

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