TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ukie, GGEM, RGEM,Nogaps all NE..hmmmm wonder which set is right Probably the opposite of whatever you support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Someone did. Others (Amped, weatherMA) posted 952 and 948 at landfall. Readings I gathered: Landfall pressures: 12Z NAM ~955mb 6Z NAM ~950mb 12Z GFS ~947mb 6Z GFS ~950mb Latest VDM (below) is extrap 960, and we are still >48hrs from landfall. Again, not trying to be a weenie, I'm just trying to understand the discrepancy and what it means. CSNavy and Turtlehurricane have raised the same question in the main thread. 000 URNT12 KNHC 271655 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/15:37:40Z B. 29 deg 18 min N 075 deg 44 min W C. 850 mb 1071 m D. 40 kt E. 064 deg 22 nm F. 154 deg 52 kt G. 066 deg 35 nm H. EXTRAP 960 mb I. 17 C / 1525 m J. 24 C / 1532 m K. 18 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 1518A SANDY OB 14 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 71 KT SW QUAD 16:11:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB SPIRAL BAND TSTMS NW SIDE OF CENTER SONDE DATA UNAVAILABLE ; Just my opinion with a cane the stronger they are the better chance they can influence the environment/steering around them for a bit...with a big noreaster don't we usually say stronger storms tend to be left of modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOON UPDATE... SUN AFTN HEADLINES... * AFTER REVIEWING 12Z NAM AND GFS WE WILL LIKELY HOIST HIGH WIND WATCHES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MON AND MON NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. * COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MON/MON NIGHT FOR BOTH COASTS...ALL OF RI AND MA. * FOR THE COASTAL WATERS STORM WATCHES WILL BE HOISTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MON/MON NIGHT. MORE LATER. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. Let's see.......who will they leave out???? (I assume they are only referencing their CWA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Can a met clarify the discrepancy between Maue's hi-res maps and the ncep/raleigh maps for the surface pressure on the gfs? Is the 936mb from Maue's site correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Let's see.......who will they leave out???? (I assume they are only referencing their CWA). Lol, you're in the ALB CWA right? I doubt they'll be giving us HWW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting..All the foreign models with a NE shift and US a smidge south. If the GGEM is NE...then i think we may have to consider the trend might be real It's called model convergence, when the foreign models were generally the furthest SW and US models the furthest NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ukie, GGEM, RGEM,Nogaps all NE..hmmmm wonder which set is right i'll side with the ensemble mean that's been consistent four runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 right up your fanny, enjoy the EYE Imagine the eye moving over BDR and Joe posting during it."Just cleared out...warm and sunny with a light breeze. Pulling out the oysters as I type. +15 on the day. BSE2 rolls on" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 right up your fanny, enjoy the EYE That's a pretty significant move NE now on Sandy. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Imagine the eye moving over BDR and Joe posting during it. "Just cleared out...warm and sunny with a light breeze. Pulling out the oysters as I type. +15 on the day. BSE2 rolls on" BFE LOL, seriously now he is not in a good spot, that predicted surge is already 2 feet higher than Irene I believe in BDR. actually BDR had 4.4 in Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Can a met clarify the discrepancy between Maue's hi-res maps and the ncep/raleigh maps for the surface pressure on the gfs? Is the 936mb from Maue's site correct? After examining a number of text products for such locations as BLM, FRG, and JFK for the 12z GFS, the lowest figure I found was just under 952 mb. The higher pressure is probably the right one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think lower to central nj landfall is the default for now. Particularly if the euro remains in this camp. Hanging ones hat on CMC and your crazy uncle is fraught with peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NCEP: BASED ON THE NAM BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS... THE MODEL HAS INITIALIZED SANDY ABOUT 20 NM E OF THE OBSERVED 12Z POSN OF 28.8N 76.8W. THE NAM CNTRL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 10 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. THE GFS BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVED POSN... THOUGH THE GFS CNTRL PRES IS 10-15 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. THE NAM BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE 15Z NHC TRACK DURING THE DAY SUN AND THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NWD THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK INTO MON NIGHT. FROM MON NIGHT THRU TUE THE NAM BRINGS THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION OF SANDY FARTHER WWD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE OR NHC TRACK. THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM COMPARES SOMEWHAT BETTER TO CURRENT CLUSTERING BY THAT PART OF THE FCST. THE GFS THE GFS STRAYS TO THE NE/N OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK F36-60 LATE SUN-LATE MON... CURLING A LITTLE TO THE W/S BY TUE. BY F84 LATE TUE THE GFS CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE SEWD OF THE NAM. FOR MOST OF THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE FCST THE GFS IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE SFC LOW. CONSULT LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING SANDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy is beginning to look much healthier on satellite. Will diurnal max make a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 After examining a number of text products for such locations as BLM, FRG, and JFK for the 12z GFS, the lowest figure I found was just under 952 mb. The higher pressure is probably the right one. I had a 949mb at 60hr on the Plymouth map generation page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just my opinion with a cane the stronger they are the better chance they can influence the environment/steering around them for a bit...with a big noreaster don't we usually say stronger storms tend to be left of modeling? Yep have learned that general rule. But that doesn't really explain why the big discrepancy (almost all models are 10-20mb too high for the next 12 hours) and whether that will continue (extrapolated would mean a 930s landfall vs. the ~950 that most models are showing now). As you say, could impact our track if we are grossly under-forecasting the pressures. But it also will significantly impact what we can expect with winds. The main thread discussion has sort of hand-waved this off as "unchartered territory". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Messenger will be RAP ing to us all day tomorrow. No more RUC updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apparently the NHC has changed their mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good call http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/10/we-get-results-hurricane-warnings-for.html?spref=tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I had a 949mb at 60hr on the Plymouth map generation page. That sounds reasonable. I just did a quick check. If the 936 mb figure were accurate, I should have seen numerous figures in the low 940s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy will still probably look it's best in about 2 days imo. It will be more enhanced baroclinicly while the shear actually drops signficantly. Still about 40 kt right now, drops to 16 kt per the 12z SHIPS in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Holy Schit the GGEM absolutely smokes the Cape and Islands... good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yep have learned that general rule. But that doesn't really explain why the big discrepancy (almost all models are 10-20mb too high for the next 12 hours) and whether that will continue (extrapolated would mean a 930s landfall vs. the ~950 that most models are showing now). As you say, could impact our track if we are grossly under-forecasting the pressures. But it also will significantly impact what we can expect with winds. The main thread discussion has sort of hand-waved this off as "unchartered territory". If you are not getting an answer from tropical dudes that is uncharted too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Curious....anybody have ggem ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good call http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/10/we-get-results-hurricane-warnings-for.html?spref=tw crazy. Maybe they read Ryan's posts on the forum Who says you can't fight city hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apparently the NHC has changed their mind That's good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 re-read tweet...it appears Dr. Knabb is saying no warnings from NHC because of confusion. No switch it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good , lots of chatter elsewhere, they got the hint. Put away the damn textbook Well, that doesn't make sense given they were going to keep it as a hurricane near the coast but then have non-tropical watches and warnings. If they were truly going with the textbook it wouldn't be a hurricane on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That's good news. Where did you see that Phil? I haven't seen that on NWS Chat yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If you are not getting an answer from tropical dudes that is uncharted too. Actually, I didn't ask any of the tropical people... CSNavy / Turtlehurricane had this discussion on their own in the main thread. Meanwhile... what a beauty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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