Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I believe this has updated I will be curious to see how a storm moving northward and then northeastward - then turns west - impacts storm surge. If a system coming up through the Gulf of Mexico moves due north into Mississippi - has plenty of time to pile up water - doesn't turn left or right - then I assume the storm surge would be worse. The wind field around Sandy is so large - pressure potentially so low - the ocean action must be incredible (well away from the storm). But - for storm surge itself - I wonder how a sharp left turn would change momentum of the storm surge. Also wondering just how high water could rise in the New York City area. Most of us on this forum were worried last year when they evacuated large areas that ended up not having too many problems. Will people listen this time around. I was in Europe when that storm hit - I remember many of us thought the amount of news coverage was insane (call it hype or whatever you want to call it). Granted some areas had major damage. They still haven't figured out how to bicubically interpolate the points so it can connect them with arcs instread of lines. Landfall a bit northof where extrapolation sugests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL...luckily it's the nogaps. I would cream just to see something like this in my lifetime. It's amazing to see how steadfast the NHC track has been. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 EDIT: IF euro is down with the GFS cluster....fine. If the EURO is NE, obviously toss the GFS/NAM. JMHO It really is sort of funny how yesterday everyone was humping the GFS because it was north and tossing the EC. Now the GFS goes south and we toss it too. I know it's not necessarily wishcasting but some are just taking whatever solution ends up at Long Island or SNE. I can't wait for snowstorms and model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 D What are you talking about? The GFS, nam and euro are all s hawing central NJ landfall. Stop wish casting to north. Give some reasoning or take it to banter. B the way, red taggers on here are doing a remarkable job. Reading comprehension FTL. There's nothing from the 12z suite that isn't an American model...including the NAM which is a model DT hates that supports the SNJ hit. that's just the facts, doesn't need to be in banter. The 12z Euro will be along in the next 90 minutes. The 0z Euro was essentially dead on at 12h today. But that wasn't the point anyway was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 realistically how much further NE can it go? guess it all depends on timing of the phase.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I would cream just to see something like this in my lifetime. It's amazing to see how steadfast the NHC track has been. Interesting times ahead. If this goes into SNJ then huge props to the NHC. They have had a south track for days. Much less waffling back and forth than some on here where we pick a different favorite couple models every 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It really is sort of funny how yesterday everyone was humping the GFS because it was north and tossing the EC. Now the GFS goes south and we toss it too. I know it's not necessarily wishcasting but some are just taking whatever solution ends up at Long Island or SNE. I can't wait for snowstorms and model hugging. I consider DT a friend so...wasn't about that at all. All I was saying is subjectively looking at it with just the new runs...most are pretty far NE. The Euro was dead on at 12h today from the 0z run. About as good as it gets. Much better than the others. The GFS init'd over the top of the 12h Euro forecast and adjusted south. That would make you think that the Euro was on the right track. But we'll see.NOGAPs is the worst and it's up near here. I'd still like the NYC/NNJ area if I had to bet right before the Euro. If the Euro is south still bravo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Re: my questions on the pressure discrepancy between pretty much all the models (including hi-res models) vs. the deeper readings we are already seeing, some thoughts on the main forum: Current SLP readings from Sandy are considerably lower than the vast majority of the models. The HWRF is the only one I've seen that's spot on and it has a 935mb landfall via gradual deepening. It does have a landfall that's quite far north, though. Looks like the global's 950mb landfall values are underdone, given the current SLP of 959mb. If they're off on the pressure, they'll be significantly off on the winds as well. Uncharted territory indeed. This is why I got into meteorology. Mother Nature's ability to throw curveballs never ceases to amaze. This is very true. But even among the high-res models, this still holds. None of the SREF members are really that close (>10mb off) and I still can't find any high-res models (again besides the HWRF) that are close. Even the normally overzealous GFDL is significantly higher (granted we're not dealing with a pure TC anymore). Any other thoughts? I'd think this discrepancy should have a very big impact on sensible weather in the hours prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 I believe this has updated I will be curious to see how a storm moving northward and then northeastward - then turns west - impacts storm surge. If a system coming up through the Gulf of Mexico moves due north into Mississippi - has plenty of time to pile up water - doesn't turn left or right - then I assume the storm surge would be worse. The wind field around Sandy is so large - pressure potentially so low - the ocean action must be incredible (well away from the storm). But - for storm surge itself - I wonder how a sharp left turn would change momentum of the storm surge. Also wondering just how high water could rise in the New York City area. Most of us on this forum were worried last year when they evacuated large areas that ended up not having too many problems. Will people listen this time around. I was in Europe when that storm hit - I remember many of us thought the amount of news coverage was insane (call it hype or whatever you want to call it). Granted some areas had major damage. Beau http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=text&list=ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Reading comprehension FTL. There's nothing from the 12z suite that isn't an American model...including the NAM which is a model DT hates that supports the SNJ hit. that's just the facts, doesn't need to be in banter. The 12z Euro will be along in the next 90 minutes. The 0z Euro was essentially dead on at 12h today. But that wasn't the point anyway was it? Yea, I suck on the iPad at typing. My point was you were saying everything but ncep guidamce targeted LI so far today. I said the nam, GFS and euro (0z) still concentrated towards C NJ. The GFS ticked south. Some of the clustered models ticked north From SNJ towards CNJ, but that's normal model waffling within this time frame. Yes, the nogaps and Canadian went NE, but those are 2 biasedly progressive models out there.the nogaps did a wonderful job in the long term telling us that the ots solution the GFS was showing was wrong when it was in the euro camp. I'm in no way shape or form saying his cant come towards Long Island. I will say the window for it is closing.m I believe it's typhoon tip saying the longer the recurve, it could trend north , and that could be a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOON UPDATE... SUN AFTN HEADLINES... * AFTER REVIEWING 12Z NAM AND GFS WE WILL LIKELY HOIST HIGH WIND WATCHES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MON AND MON NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. * COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MON/MON NIGHT FOR BOTH COASTS...ALL OF RI AND MA. * FOR THE COASTAL WATERS STORM WATCHES WILL BE HOISTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MON/MON NIGHT. MORE LATER. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Re: my questions on the pressure discrepancy between pretty much all the models (including hi-res models) vs. the deeper readings we are already seeing, some thoughts on the main forum: Any other thoughts? I'd think this discrepancy should have a very big impact on sensible weather in the hours prior to landfall. Well didn't somebody say the GFS was 936 at landfall? Hard to go any lower than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the GFES mean is the same as the op and the same as the past four runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the GFES mean is the same as the op and the same as the past four runs Yeah...964ish into C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 hooks SW into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NOGAPs is the worst and it's up near here. I'd still like the NYC/NNJ area if I had to bet right before the Euro. If the Euro is south still bravo. i dont care if the euro is ACY the next two runs, i wouldn't stop watching the track of this thing messenger this is a historically rare set up and with possible initial phasing resistance being POORLY modeled as AFD's have stated, dont take your eye off where this is on the satelite loops till tuesday. you see how she looks on visible today. a true frankenstorm , a monster that could only be cook'd up by the KFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I really can't believe we are going to go with high wind watches/warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's amazing how weenies are looking at this and analyzing like its a winter system. Different animal here. I lived through Hazel's 100+ gusts hundreds of miles northeast of lf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's amazing how weenies are looking at this and analyzing like its a winter system. Different animal here. I lived through Hazel's 100+ gusts hundreds of miles northeast of lf. Exactly. Look at the progs. A landfall in NJ will affect DC to BOS. Only if the storm goes to some extreme like SE MA or the Virginia Capes will one region or another see lessened effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 hooks SW into MD Ukie, GGEM, RGEM,Nogaps all NE..hmmmm wonder which set is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am going to address Beaus' surge question by using the GHM nested and full 06 hurricane model. This also addresses the way south landfall and the strongest winds well North. First look at the fetch on the wind all the way to the Central Atlantic, ~2000 miles , second look at the wind barbs in the LI sound LI area into NY NJ, can not see the barbs in SNE on the nested. Notice the wind speed difference. The LLJ and the spreading out of this storm is incredible. Bad news for SNE NJ NYC if this hits CNJ. That fetch is long and very strong for a couple of tide cycles. Bridgeport surge is already predicted to be 7 feet, and that does not include wave action, 2-3 hi tide cycles effected. Going to be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I really can't believe we are going to go with high wind watches/warnings. Were you thinking they'd go inland hurricane and hurricane coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 why? Because they are probably issued 3-6 times a year out here and pack nowhere near the impact of having a hurricane warning issued. Personally it doesn't matter to me because I know what's coming but there are actual things / decisions that are set in motion (be it correct or not) when a hurricane warning is posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ALB discussion downplaying the effects talking about occasional gusts to 50 mph..I'm on the extreme southern end of their CWA though so I'm wondering if I should just read Upton discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If sandy Phases earlier than expected would the path be more to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well didn't somebody say the GFS was 936 at landfall? Hard to go any lower than that... Someone did. Others (Amped, weatherMA) posted 952 and 948 at landfall. Readings I gathered: Landfall pressures: 12Z NAM ~955mb 6Z NAM ~950mb 12Z GFS ~947mb 6Z GFS ~950mb Latest VDM (below) is extrap 960, and we are still >48hrs from landfall. Again, not trying to be a weenie, I'm just trying to understand the discrepancy and what it means. CSNavy and Turtlehurricane have raised the same question in the main thread. 000 URNT12 KNHC 271655 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/15:37:40Z B. 29 deg 18 min N 075 deg 44 min W C. 850 mb 1071 m D. 40 kt E. 064 deg 22 nm F. 154 deg 52 kt G. 066 deg 35 nm H. EXTRAP 960 mb I. 17 C / 1525 m J. 24 C / 1532 m K. 18 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 1518A SANDY OB 14 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 71 KT SW QUAD 16:11:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB SPIRAL BAND TSTMS NW SIDE OF CENTER SONDE DATA UNAVAILABLE ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Because they are probably issued 3-6 times a year out here and pack nowhere near the impact of having a hurricane warning issued. Personally it doesn't matter to me because I know what's coming but there are actual things / decisions that are set in motion (be it correct or not) when a hurricane warning is posted. oh yeah i thought you were referring to that. for a second I thought you meant it wouldn't verify lol. I agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NOGAPs at 12z = last nights 6z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 NOGAPs at 12z = last nights 6z HWRF right up your fanny, enjoy the EYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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