wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Global models never init tropical systems at their actual pressure. NAM init pressure was just as off... In any case, both 12z NAM and GFS drop ~ 20 mb from init pressures. Does anyone here expect a 20mb drop from our last 957mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Maue's full res 12z GFS has it at 936mb. https://twitter.com/...2221313/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heh, 936 pre-landfall on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Brian. Was that the 12 z Ukie into NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ukie landfall into BDR/NYC at 72hr...955mb. Outlier at this point, I guess. Where had it been? It seems like while we will be affected in a big way by winds, the rain will be NBD as compared to our SW? Maybe just a uniform 2" of rain with higher amounts in heavy bands? Agree. Even with the strong AFD from BOX, it appeared that way. Though, they also were talking about oragraphic elements, and those might not be picked up on the model depictions so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To mention, the dynamical interplay between what's left of Sandy's core will also play into track, because if she's moving fast the S solutions will be wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh well....probably just run of the mill north of Boston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Brian. Was that the 12 z Ukie into NYC? Yeah. Here it is FWIW.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=ne&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&ge=640x480&mo=ukmet&le=850&va=wspd&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet&le=850&va=slp&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Brian. Was that the 12 z Ukie into NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To mention, the dynamical interplay between what's left of Sandy's core will also play into track, because if she's moving fast the S solutions will be wrong - . Yeah I agree. Going to be an interesting few days.This is one of those two hour periods where we feel like models are pulling together now watch the euro go off the range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh well....probably just run of the mill north of Boston.... lol...what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GPS still hits the SNE coast pretty good with those 950 winds Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To mention, the dynamical interplay between what's left of Sandy's core will also play into track, because if she's moving fast the S solutions will be wrong - Cue Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh well....probably just run of the mill north of Boston.... More like Portland. People need to stop thinking of this as a regular TC. This is like the Perfect Storm which never even made landfall and was not run of the mill 100s of miles from the center. Large system with a tight pressure gradient between a high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah. Here it is FWIW. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=ne&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=640x480&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=wspd&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=slp&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Is that NE of 00z? Like Ryan and Will and HM , still appears a shift NE could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol...what? I am thinking that with the further south track, at least my location won't get hit too bad. I could be wrong, but the NYC landfall was what was going to make these bad in my area. We will still get winds, but I am not sure what to expect. My point and click says 40mph winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is that NE of 00z? Like Ryan and Will and HM , still appears a shift NE could happen I think the Ukie has slowly been trending south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is that seriously showing all of LI and coastal CT with 95kt+ 900mb winds??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 12Z GFS wind field at 900mb is insane. 60kts and up stretching from Eastport, ME to Virgina Beach at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 More like Portland. People need to stop thinking of this as a regular TC. This is like the Perfect Storm which never even made landfall and was not run of the mill 100s of miles from the center. Large system with a tight pressure gradient between a high to the north. I see you and raise you to BHB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nogaps looks pretty far east...haven't compared to 0 or 6z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I see you and raise you to BHB. Boothbay??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Boothbay??? bar harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is that NE of 00z? Like Ryan and Will and HM , still appears a shift NE could happen It's a bit NE from 00z, but it has been so far out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Awesome, keep going south baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is that seriously showing all of LI and coastal CT with 95kt+ 900mb winds??? Yes and that is an unreal depiction. Would seriously be troublesome in terms of wind damage and surge. Hope it doesn't occur as modeled but it is becoming increasingly clear that this may be a worst case scenario landfall for the NYC and LI/CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SE of 40/70, turning nw directly into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is that NE of 00z? Like Ryan and Will and HM , still appears a shift NE could happen Any shift NE or NW couldl have a major impact, will be interesting to watch tomorrow, pretty soon models will be useless for positioning, still need to watch those winds around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 bar harbor thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 morning visual reveals a f'n monster http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8visflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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