OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Depends on the day. I think all of this deserves criticism, however. I think you have a habit of not offering constructive criticsm of certain policies..."well this just wrong" okay. As a meteorologist, you damn well know about the difficulty of bridging scientific correctness and public awareness. It's almost impossible. You change one thing and you create another problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Microcane embedded, PS 1 meet PS2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy appears to have a tilted cdo right now - yet, from the bigger perspective looks just like a deeply wrapped up ET cyclone ...simultaneously. Nice! I'm certain this is still warm core, though. Of the models I've seen over the last 24 hours, bar none the 00z UKMET was the most potentially destructive to the LI Sound/NY Bite area, and the Jersey coast. It's slightly wider right turn before capture, then appearance of a 12 hour rapid acceleration due west from approximately a mere 50 miles S of the Massachusett's Islands, is like a cosmic-scaled front end loader plowing up a bow wave of Atlantic and delivering right into those topographical focal points. Dead meat. This will be a fantastic now-cast opportunity. You could pretty much take your complete Dynamics curriculum and compress it into the next 3.5 days of observations. I think it is possible the Euro is too far S, while the UKMET's wide right perfect scenario to incur Kevinian -like wrath is also correctable. I kind of like the NAM's mean across the last 2 or 3 cycles. All the necessary influential dynamical players are securely into the NAM's grid, and whether we collectively want to admit this or not, the NAM's performance does improve substantially when that is the case. Eat me. So, with that, I think a general capture with uncertainty as to asymmetric transmutation rates will just have to be observed, and that the fluid dynamical steering would tend to be somewhere between central and N NJ. Much of this event will likely be the topic of papers to come, no question a thesis or two will be born of this. Highest wind is difficult to pin-point because as Baroclinic-instability and I were discussing last night there are some odd-ball signatures that try to bring down "sting" like jetlets around the northern periphery of the cyclone. The other aspect is isallobarics are heightened - with the downward acceleration in the PP there can be interesting wind pulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks to be further south at 48 to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I was wondering the same thing--perhaps some pressure put on by powers that be. Do I sound conspiratorial? No comment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just an observation: from the lines at the gas stations and the amount of people filling up 5 gallon jugs a lot of people are preparing if this does move to a farther north LF. Great conversations in this thread as always everyone. My local gas stations had some open slots a few minutes ago. Only noticed one out of ~10 guys there filling a 5 gal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 gfs looks like SNJ landfall 60-63...as a 948 too...but definitely significantly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmwes Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Here in Eastern CT the 3 gas stations in my town have been banged out since I first drove by at 7...many filling gas cans (as I was). So there are a good amount of people taking precautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I still think a Long Island landfall is possible. Actually I was think the same thing a more NNW trajectory up LF around NYC then the hard curl back into the C/O..simple analog techniques do support this sort of a track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Somewhere between ACY and Sandy Hook on the GFS...its stronger than the 06z run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Somewhere between ACY and Sandy Hook on the GFS...its stronger than the 06z run too. Yeah it's definitely a bit south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ukie landfall into BDR/NYC at 72hr...955mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rboarderi Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Here in Eastern CT the 3 gas stations in my town have been banged out since I first drove by at 7...many filling gas cans (as I was). So there are a good amount of people taking precautions. All the gas stations are loaded with people filling up cans down here in Niantic, all the boats being pulled out of the water as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 models seem to like the ACY hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 gfs looks like SNJ landfall 60-63. Euro made that one big adjustment and then stuck it pretty good. Li south is in for a lot of trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS ~952mb for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It seems like while we will be affected in a big way by winds, the rain will be NBD as compared to our SW? Maybe just a uniform 2" of rain with higher amounts in heavy bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro made that one big adjustment and then stuck it pretty good. Li south is in for a lot of trouble As Phil has said you and the EMA coast will get plenty of impact as well...maybe not as much as LI south...because yeah it's going to be worse there...but seems like some pretty major impacts up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm starting to feel sick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah it's definitely a bit south of 6z. how the f do you guys get the runs out so fast - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm starting to feel sick.... could the gfs be any worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm starting to feel sick.... That's a called a hang-over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No real change in that LLJ despite the LF a tick south in S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm starting to feel sick.... jackpot, stay safe bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 how the f do you guys get the runs out so fast - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 how the f do you guys get the runs out so fast - Instantweathermaps.com for me. Doesn't give out the best maps, but when I'm anxious to see what the model did, it provides a quick resource as it always comes out fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm starting to feel sick.... could the gfs be any worse? Yeah this is becoming bad for NJ and probably NYC/LI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS hits just about every NHC point dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 could the gfs be any worse? jackpot stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah this is becoming bad for NJ and probably NYC/LI as well. it sinks WSW and gets deleware bay after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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