Hurricane Sandy

[CoastalWx]

I disagree Scott. I'd expect to get whacked

Agree. This will cause power outages all the way to Maine.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Acy?

Atlantic City, NJ

[dendrite]

Acy?

Atlantic City

Mt Washington is going to rock with modeled H8 winds getting over 100kt.

[moneypitmike]

A bit (or a lot) of a imby question......what are the thoughts for wind up in GC with a CNJ hit? I ready Andy's post for his viewers, but I'm certainly SE of there. Like Scott (Messenger), I question whether the winds will be all that bad up here. False sense of security? I suspect many non-coastal folks--especially those far removed--share the question. TIA.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Atlantic City

Mt Washington is going to rock with modeled H8 winds getting over 100kt.

Sustained?

[dendrite]

Sustained?

Yeah...it wouldn't surprise me if they pull it off for a couple of hours.

[wxsniss]

Dropping again

000

URNT12 KNHC 271449 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 27/14:05:30Z

B. 28 deg 53 min N

075 deg 58 min W

C. 850 mb 1075 m

D. 61 kt

E. 297 deg 29 nm

F. 021 deg 61 kt

G. 300 deg 127 nm

H. 959 mb

I. 16 C / 1526 m

J. 22 C / 1530 m

K. 19 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 1518A SANDY OB 10 CCA

MAX FL WIND 91 KT SW QUAD 11:19:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 14:36:00Z

;

[HoarfrostHubb]

A bit (or a lot) of a imby question......what are the thoughts for wind up in GC with a CNJ hit? I ready Andy's post for his viewers, but I'm certainly SE of there. Like Scott (Messenger), I question whether the winds will be all that bad up here. False sense of security? I suspect many non-coastal folks--especially those far removed--share the question. TIA.

Even if not that strong, it will be long duration, with winds from the SE...New England trees don't do SE winds

[ORH_wxman]

The LLJ on this of 100 knots extends like 300 miles NE of the center...a landfall in NJ is going to be devastating for a lot of SNE...we'd really need to see something down in Delaware or Wallops Island to give us less impact. The slightly further south track will affect the interior the the most as the winds would stay more Northeasterly making it a bit tougher to mix down the strongest winds. Still even on a NAM solution, it has sustained trop force winds at ORH (35 knots) and 65 knots sustained only about 1200 feet up.

Messenger is not going to get a run of the mill storm unless it goes into Wallops Island....the coast of MA will get raked. Maybe it will be gusts to 75 knots instead of 83 knots with a slightly further south track, but really there isn't much difference between an NYC landfall and Sandy Hook or ACY...the storm's biggest impact is felt before it landfalls there as it is passing south/southeast of LI

[CoastalWx]

Messenger needs to tie down is tractor

[Tropopause_Fold]

The LLJ on this of 100 knots extends like 300 miles NE of the center...a landfall in NJ is going to be devastating for a lot of SNE...we'd really need to see something down in Delaware or Wallops Island to give us less impact. The slightly further south track will affect the interior the the most as the winds would stay more Northeasterly making it a bit tougher to mix down the strongest winds. Still even on a NAM solution, it has sustained trop force winds at ORH (35 knots) and 65 knots sustained only about 1200 feet up.

Messenger is not going to get a run of the mill storm unless it goes into Wallops Island....the coast of MA will get raked. Maybe it will be gusts to 75 knots instead of 83 knots with a slightly further south track, but really there isn't much difference between an NYC landfall and Sandy Hook or ACY...the storm's biggest impact is felt before it landfalls there as it is passing south/southeast of LI

Agree. Only way this is less than very bad is if it tucks in closer to Hatteras before heading w

[dendrite]

Even if not that strong, it will be long duration, with winds from the SE...New England trees don't do SE winds

I think for the deep interior the strong gust potential will be shorter duration...few hours sometime Monday evening maybe?

[forkyfork]

sref mean is ACY:

[ORH_wxman]

Agree. Only way this is less than very bad is if it tucks in closer to Hatteras before heading w

Yeah the huge wide turn out by SE LI is what destroys most of SNE...I mean, did you see the 06z GFS soundings? That was ugly.

The Euro is still a bit south for the mega monsterous impact, but even the Euro would be plenty bad.

[wxsniss]

11am NHC:

NNE 10mph

75 mph (85)

958 mb

[capecod04]

NHC brings it inland around Fenwick Island, Del and tracks over to Baltimore now. Too far south?

[educate]

map is still time stamped at 8am. new map is further south as is the cone.

looks like S NJ to me

[Wx4cast]

I think for the deep interior the strong gust potential will be shorter duration...few hours sometime Monday evening maybe?

Higher elevations - yes but with turn into the SSE on Tuesday plus dry slot good see higher winds both X higher elevations as well as lower ones especially in N-S oriented valleys.

[OSUmetstud]

I wonder whose decision it was to the hurricane forecasts but non-hurricane warnings. That may not be completely up to the NHC since there's many agencies involved.

Anywho...I think the media is downplaying the wind around here way too much. 06z gfs is incredible...88 kt @ 900mb over Lake Ontario with 50 kt sustained surface winds. And the sounding isn't really all that stable, either. I'd prepare for hurricane force gusts, even as far west as the southwest shoreline of Lake Ontario.

[dan11295]

NHC brings it inland around Fenwick Island, Del and tracks over to Baltimore now. Too far south?

Read the disco.. They bring it north and hook it left. Don't use the straight line between 48-72

[CapturedNature]

NHC brings it inland around Fenwick Island, Del and tracks over to Baltimore now. Too far south?

Yeah, I'm not understanding why they are going south of most guidance. I think that will allow some people to let their guard down.

[moneypitmike]

Even if not that strong, it will be long duration, with winds from the SE...New England trees don't do SE winds

3 ginourmous 200-year old maples S and SE of the Pit say 'oh no'.

The LLJ on this of 100 knots extends like 300 miles NE of the center...a landfall in NJ is going to be devastating for a lot of SNE...we'd really need to see something down in Delaware or Wallops Island to give us less impact. The slightly further south track will affect the interior the the most as the winds would stay more Northeasterly making it a bit tougher to mix down the strongest winds. Still even on a NAM solution, it has sustained trop force winds at ORH (35 knots) and 65 knots sustained only about 1200 feet up.

Messenger is not going to get a run of the mill storm unless it goes into Wallops Island....the coast of MA will get raked. Maybe it will be gusts to 75 knots instead of 83 knots with a slightly further south track, but really there isn't much difference between an NYC landfall and Sandy Hook or ACY...the storm's biggest impact is felt before it landfalls there as it is passing south/southeast of LI

Thanks, Will. A couple hours seems pretty manageable. Curious about your comment about ORH and 1200'. Isn't ORH at a 1000'? You're essentially doubling the wind speed 200' above the surface? I'll be happy to be at a 1000'.

I think for the deep interior the strong gust potential will be shorter duration...few hours sometime Monday evening maybe?

[lakeeffectkid383]

I wonder whose decision it was to the hurricane forecasts but non-hurricane warnings. That may not be completely up to the NHC since there's many agencies involved.

Anywho...I think the media is downplaying the wind around here way too much. 06z gfs is incredible...88 kt @ 900mb over Lake Ontario with 50 kt sustained surface winds. And the sounding isn't really all that stable, either. I'd prepare for hurricane force gusts, even as far west as the southwest shoreline of Lake Ontario.

For sure, The shore near ROC would be fun to be at.

[OSUmetstud]

Don't focus on the center line guys, you can't extrapolate an exact landfall from 24 hr point forecast since the storm might not travel perfectly parabolically along the NHC cone.

[CT Rain]

NHC is probably in reality a NJ landfall... but you can't show a sharp left hook with a straight line between forecast points!

[mattmfm]

Don't focus on the center line guys, you can't extrapolate an exact landfall from 24 hr point forecast since the storm might not travel perfectly parabolically along the NHC cone.

Make the same point in the 11am discussion, NHC expecting a due east-west landfall.

[dendrite]

3 ginourmous 200-year old maples S and SE of the Pit say 'oh no'.

Thanks, Will. A couple hours seems pretty manageable. Curious about your comment about ORH and 1200'. Isn't ORH at a 1000'? You're essentially doubling the wind speed 200' above the surface? I'll be happy to be at a 1000'.

I think he meant 1200' above ORH...not ASL.

[educate]

that disco refers to the gfs solution. nam is south

Read the disco.. They bring it north and hook it left. Don't use the straight line between 48-72

[moneypitmike]

Yeah, I'm not understanding why they are going south of most guidance. I think that will allow some people to let their guard down.

If you look at the cone after it comes inland, it actually extends further NE than it did on the 8:00a.m. one. That part's baffling to me.

[SnowMan]

Will NE Mass get strong winds or given the slightly further south track we won't have to many issues? I understand CT and SE Mass could have issues but what about NE Mass?