free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Showers. Patchy dense fog. High near 64. Very windy, with a northeast wind 37 to 42 mph increasing to 43 to 48 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. schweet My point-and-click Monday Night Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 52. Very windy, with a east wind 40 to 47 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So does the discussion from the previous few days about unrealistic pressure modeled at landfall still stand or is this realistic? there were a lot more models showing 935-945 a few days ago.. now it's mostly 943-955.. I'd still lean on the high side of that but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Central pressure, IKE, I am scared a bit for the coast. Is IKE useful for surge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 00z GFS has 93KT 925 for MTP, 100KT at 900. 90mph gusts? and I'm only a few KTs lower than that in coastal CT.. 86KT@925 and 96KT at 900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i think people along the outer banks and east coastal virginia will be suprised tommorrow at the amount of beach erosion and coastal flooding from the duration of the onshore winds and the heavier swell moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i think people along the outer banks and east coastal virginia will be suprised tommorrow at the amount of beach erosion and coastal flooding from the duration of the onshore winds and the heavier swell moving in. Anyone have the 0z EURO snow map on them? All I have is the wunderground free access one. The South-East thread is 100% snow talk, and 0% hurricane talk. Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RikC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 pls repeat the point & click url... Actually wind was worse when I clicked my exact street, 42 to 49 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Central pressure, IKE, I am scared a bit for the coast. Is IKE useful for surge? IKE was basically created to measure surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if this thing will come in as a true hurricane at landfall. Models show warm core right through 48 hours with storm approaching NYC. Is it possible that ET transition will be much later than current forecasts suggest, and possibly not until landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Random question, how much does wind tunneling increase gusts in the city? Would appreciate an answer. -Rob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IKE was basically created to measure surge potential. to the public response to this so far hopefully the media and govt will help get the right people out of the way tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About as impressive a set of model runs and soundings we've ever seen. Jaw dropping on the strength,duration and areal coverage into NNE of damaging winds. Absolutely awe inspiring what is about to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Already getting breezy..Winds 10-15 mph out of the NE currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Batten down the hatches?? Track is locking into central NJ landfall and my consensus method now relates more to timing and intensity. Current result is 945 mb low from 00z to 03z tracking west or 280 deg near or slightly north of 40N, landfall (possibly at 03-06z Tuesday) pressure 948, about 30-50 south of Asbury Park. I am predicting maximum gusts of around 100 kts or 115 mph in many parts of the region between 40N and 41.5N, trending down to about 80 knots in nc NJ and e PA. Gusts to 70 kts or perhaps higher in NW backing to W flow around ACY, PHL, 60 kts BWI-DCA. Rainfall estimates 4-8 inches Long Island and NYC, 5-12 inches w CT, 3-6 e CT-RI-MA ... 10-20 se NY north of Yonkers to about Albany and in n/c NJ, s NJ, PHL, , 20-25 nw NJ ne PA sharp gradient to 5 in IPT-SYR and 1-2 in w NY, Toronto. Snowfalls 15-30 inches parts of w/c PA, w MD, most of WV, noVA to 600' then sleet or rain to sea level. Expect widespread thunder and lightning in landfall time frame 00z-09z all around NYC. Winds could gust to 150 mph exposed higher locations including urban >50 storeys. Very high impact storm damage potential from wind damage and and storm surges, river flooding. Seems like a 500-1000 year return event as depicted on 00z model suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About as impressive a set of model runs and soundings we've ever seen. Jaw dropping on the strength,duration and areal coverage into NNE of damaging winds. Absolutely awe inspiring what is about to take place. Not to be lf obsessed, but the gfs did tick south a decent amount. Have you seen the euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not to be lf obsessed, but the gfs did tick south a decent amount. Have you seen the euro ens? As did the NAM just a hair. Moot point at this juncture methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FYI--even though I'm getting fringed up here, looking to the east is the "darkest red" dawning. Red sky in the morning........Quite beautiful actually. If I can muster a 65mph gust, I'll be pumped. Good luck to all you folks further south--particularly those in line for surge/waves. Keep safe! If I ca muster a 65 mph gust, I'll be pumped. OT--my computer died last night (ugh!!). Worst timing ever. I'll have to try and follow things by "stealing" time on my wife's and on my Kindle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About as impressive a set of model runs and soundings we've ever seen. Jaw dropping on the strength,duration and areal coverage into NNE of damaging winds. Absolutely awe inspiring what is about to take place. Yeah surprised to see the GFS go south. Very impressive stuff for NYC and PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Getting a little worried. Here's about 15 seconds of 40mph winds during Irene: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8yg76hABUI&feature=g-crec-u I suspect we'll get more than 15 seconds this go round... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM and GFS are honing in on the central Jersey shore landfall.....something like Asbury Park down to Tom's River. That is about as bad a track as possible for New York City I would think. Yeah surprised to see the GFS go south. Very impressive stuff for NYC and PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If I had to place a bet, I'd say the highest wind gusts will be from Nantucket MA and north. Blue Hills FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Look at obs further south. lot of 45-50 gusts from Elizabeth City to NC coast. HSE 4.22" rain through 7 am. Nice band offshore there. At least latest forecast brings in onshore during low tide. maybe that will hold and mitigate things a bit. got a 1-2' surge already in NYC metro though. The water simply has no place to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If I had to place a bet, I'd say the highest wind gusts will be from Nantucket MA and north. Blue Hills FTW? Yeah, we mentioned this a couple of days ago. MQE is in a great spot. I wish Wachusett had a wx station on the summit that recorded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Beautiful sunrise this morning. Overcast now with steady Breezes from the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Man that's gonna suck for LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Man that's gonna suck for LI sound. Yeah Im really starting to think the story will be south coast line of New England, the Sound, LI, and NYC...the easterly fetch through that area is ridiculous. The coastal damage will become the top story with this storm. Best of luck LL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah Im really starting to think the story will be south coast line of New England, the Sound, LI, and NYC...the easterly fetch through that area is ridiculous. The coastal damage will become the top story with this storm. Best of luck LL. I think they are screwed, and national news will be there for days because of the surge. We've handled winds like this plenty of times, so that's not the big story. Up here, timing may work out better for us as strongest surge of winds may be low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Already getting breezy out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Man that's gonna suck for LI sound. yeah they are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.