SN_Lover Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I feel confident in the impact I'm forecasting for the CT shoreline... devastating. Wind and surge worse than Irene. I'm actually pretty confident in that and it's pretty scary stuff. Inland I'm not as sure. Less rain means roots that aren't saturated plus many trees are in the process of losing their leaves inland (or almost all done in the hills). That should mitigate tree damage. That said, winds will likely be higher than Irene (maybe substantially so) and the duration will be incredibly impressive. So I'm really quite unsure what the final impact will be. I think that's what the public does not understand is that that this will not be a quick hit. it will be dragged out. the soil is not dry, but average. but should still be wet enough for damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It appears we finally have real consensus. Yep, and you guys will get hit good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 A lot of our trees coming down are either limbs or trees just snapped from the difference of relatively low winds near the surface to the violent gusts at the canopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah this looks awful for them. Good luck with that. At the conference, the fire chief of East Haven said there are two homes sitting their not tied down waiting to be put onto a foundation. Those people will probably lose a second home. I'm not even sure why you would think of rebuilding in the same spot, especially along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So Sandy now has the largest IKE and largest radius of gale force winds in Atlantic basin history? That's remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So Sandy now has the largest IKE and largest radius of gale force winds in Atlantic basin history? That's remarkable. Holy crap...where do you see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 925mb winds on 0z GFS for 0z Tuesday... absolutely unreal and even more impressive than earlier runs: Boston 0z Tuesday... we'll see how much can mix down with the relatively lower QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Holy crap...where do you see this? 5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM bufkit at BDL looks very solid for a prolonged period of damaging winds with a several hour window of 50+ knot gusts mixing down...will be real interesting if anything above that inversion can transfer down b/c IDK bufkit mixes from above the inversion...unless I'm wrong. Wasn't Wx4cast saying if we dryslot we will have a better chance of mixing down those winds since you'd have a steeper lapse rate (i.e. closer to dry adiabatic)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wasn't Wx4cast saying if we dryslot we will have a better chance of mixing down those winds since you'd have a steeper lapse rate (i.e. closer to dry adiabatic)? I know Will had mentioned that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dryslot would allow you to mix down, so long as inversion wasn't bad. The GFS keeps the strongest winds actually closer to the center and has been doing that. That rotates into LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 A lot of our trees coming down are either limbs or trees just snapped from the difference of relatively low winds near the surface to the violent gusts at the canopy. I don't know if it comes into play with the types of winds we're going to get or the tree species around here, but I was thinking back to my experience in Charley and recall very few large trees uprooted. Many were snapped part way or just missing a good % of their branches. you kind of have to look closely to see it in that pic Going down weenie memory lane.. I captured some video I took dec 92 waves hitting houses and was watching that too. It's in huge dv format now, will convert and upload eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This shows gusts from the WRF (I believe), and looks much more ominous than the other maps. Probably because it shows gusts rather than sustained. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.gust_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dryslot would allow you to mix down, so long as inversion wasn't bad. The GFS keeps the strongest winds actually closer to the center and has been doing that. That rotates into LI sound. instantweathermaps.com has a lot of CT and the Cape in the 70 mph gust contour on the 00z GFS at hr 51. But, maybe it won't be catastrophic because of lack of soil moisture to weaken roots as Ryan mentioned. Duration of potential for 50 + is concerning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting...the NAM/GFS develop several hundred J/KG of Cape early Tuesday lasting through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonfancier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Greetings all. Checking in to marvel at the sky over Quincy, Mass. for the past hour or so. Never have seen such wild cloud & moonlight stuff going on. Seems there's a pretty intense storm marching our way and, as a broadcaster, am glad that the Mets I work with are keeping everyone up-t0-date. Thanks for the great work and go out and look at that sky. It's outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Does anyone know how, in a situation like this, the NWS decides which color shading to use? It seems a little deceptive in our case seeing as winds are unarguably the bigger issue yet we have the Flood Watch shading over us...not that it really matters THAT much, just wondering they have some sort of order of precedence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 These are from Irene on the Sturbridge/Brookfield town line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Great Zo Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Does anyone know how, in a situation like this, the NWS decides which color shading to use? It seems a little deceptive in our case seeing as winds are unarguably the bigger issue yet we have the Flood Watch shading over us...not that it really matters THAT much, just wondering they have some sort of order of precedence. The order of precedence is hard-coded in at a national level, so it's not something that forecasters can adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro identical to 12z through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ultimate landfall location is a touch south from 12z... but through 48 hours it's identical to 12z. Approaches the coast from the E and opposed to ESE. Also times just about out to high tide for Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ultimate landfall location is a touch south from 12z... but through 48 hours it's identical to 12z. Approaches the coast from the E and opposed to ESE. Also times just about out to high tide for Long Island Sound. What's the strength of the low when it makes landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ultimate landfall location is a touch south from 12z... but through 48 hours it's identical to 12z. Approaches the coast from the E and opposed to ESE. Also times just about out to high tide for Long Island Sound. Good consensus now from all of the major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What's the strength of the low when it makes landfall? 946ish prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 so the models are centered on central jersey landfall and they also appear to be somewhat in line in taking the storm further off the coast prior (then yesterday) , (esp EURO) so that the impact on SNE is severe, esp on the s facing coast/islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z Euro initializes at 963.6 mb Last VDM: 000 URNT12 KNHC 280539 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 28/05:05:40Z B. 31 deg 17 min N 073 deg 55 min W C. 700 mb 2735 m D. 44 kt E. 136 deg 33 nm F. 221 deg 58 kt G. 134 deg 67 nm H. 960 mb I. 10 C / 3058 m J. 15 C / 3067 m K. 10 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF305 1818A SANDY OB 20 MAX FL WIND 77 KT S QUAD 01:50:00Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 946ish prior to landfall. 944.6 at 48 hrs per instantwxmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 944.6 at 48 hrs per instantwxmaps. So does the discussion from the previous few days about unrealistic pressure modeled at landfall still stand or is this realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So does the discussion from the previous few days about unrealistic pressure modeled at landfall still stand or is this realistic? Those are realistic, but they were modeled lower a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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