Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS a tick south of 18z. Almost certain it will go further south after landfall. Edit: Sandy Hook to Haggerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Perhaps off-topic, but I found this interesting, if for nothing other than historical context. Seismic activity in Alaska in September 1938 was attributed to the hurricane (see first page of https://docs.google....s6--tlC6N6tBuTA , for example). A similar storm by many accounts is occuring now, and a significant earthquake just occurred in the Pacific. There's almost surely no correlation, but it's still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 One thing to remember is that the ground was like wet slop when those winds hit. For me all the trees that fell were in an area near a stream except for one sickly tree in the front yard. Although it looks rainy I don't think it will be quite as easy to uproot trees this time. 2010 imby maybe that was a poor example. there is a prolonged period of a shot of 50mph gusts though, then perhaps 50-75 for a few hours. worse than 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like that causes landfall between hrs 51-54 in C NJ, correct? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well you bring up a good point about the defoliation. When I suspect I saw 65kts it was May 31st 2008. The appearance of large oak trees in full bloom with those kind of winds is pretty terrifying, and the leaves probably 'add' 10 kts of damage potential at least. But are you expecting winds of that magnitude? I mean it should be bad, but allowing for at least a token regression to the mean, I feel a little uncomfortable expecting anything more than 50 maybe 55kts in Western MA. If it's truly exceptional and we see widespread 65kts it would be a disaster. I don't have expectations, really. I think the 60mph wind gusts will be widespread, but defer to the pros. My position for wind damage would be prolonged 60-70mph gusts are far worse for damage, than a quick microburst or something like that. Somewhat OT, but was in Boston today and there's actually still leaf color down there and 75% leaves hanging on. That's a little scary...and I know Cape Cod looks like Cape Coral in late Oct, food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Someplace in w li sound is in trouble Yes... the new surge forecast from NWS is 5-10 feet. Record breaking. That would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Perhaps off-topic, but I found this interesting, if for nothing other than historical context. Seismic activity in Alaska in September 1938 was attributed to the hurricane (see first page of https://docs.google....s6--tlC6N6tBuTA , for example). A similar storm by many accounts is occuring now, and a significant earthquake just occurred in the Pacific. There's almost surely no correlation, but it's still interesting. Interesting find! Upgraded to 7.7 just a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 '38 registered on seismographs, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nasty - https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/262400614418509824/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS says tie down your trashcan lids on the coast of SNE. Pretty breezy down here too and wet. Looks like we all get in on the power outages and tree damage. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Perhaps off-topic, but I found this interesting, if for nothing other than historical context. Seismic activity in Alaska in September 1938 was attributed to the hurricane (see first page of https://docs.google....s6--tlC6N6tBuTA , for example). A similar storm by many accounts is occuring now, and a significant earthquake just occurred in the Pacific. There's almost surely no correlation, but it's still interesting. I don't see any reference in that article to Alaska. Also, the Alaskan earthquake in 1938 was in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SE winds in NYC 51hrs-84Hrs. Even longer in SNE. Block to the north is stronger and the second northern stream shortwave can't come down and pull it north. GFS has been undergoing the TC outflow enhanced block all week, maybe I should have favored this, my earlier meteorological reasoning over the nor'easter southward bias reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't see any reference in that article to Alaska. Also, the Alaskan earthquake in 1938 was in November. It wasn't an earthquake really. And see http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/image/hurricane-path/ for a reference to AK, if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ummmm.... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS says tie down your trashcan lids on the coast of SNE. Pretty breezy down here too and wet. Looks like we all get in on the power outages and tree damage. Yay! Probably one of those storms that disappoints...it gets old after a few hours, waiting for it to end to run errands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It wasn't an earthquake really. And see http://www.pbs.org/w...hurricane-path/ for a reference to AK, if needed. OK. That's cool. And a totally different issue than an earthquake in Alaska tonight. Your original post was confusing since it seemed to attempt to correlate the two, because there was a major quake in Alaska in 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ummmm.... wow. That's quite impressive...as Kevin would say, heavy, heavy damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ummmm.... wow. is that a 99 mph gust I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 is that a 99 mph gust I see? No...that's POP. 54 is the wind and that's very impressive for MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nice MOS. BTW, GFS is a LI Sound disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like ukie is near GFS give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM bufkit at BDL looks very solid for a prolonged period of damaging winds with a several hour window of 50+ knot gusts mixing down...will be real interesting if anything above that inversion can transfer down b/c IDK bufkit mixes from above the inversion...unless I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen this since looking at bufkit...granted that hasn't been that many years but there's a first for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Canadian into NYC it appears on those crude maps or a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I feel confident in the impact I'm forecasting for the CT shoreline... devastating. Wind and surge worse than Irene. I'm actually pretty confident in that and it's pretty scary stuff. Inland I'm not as sure. Less rain means roots that aren't saturated plus many trees are in the process of losing their leaves inland (or almost all done in the hills). That should mitigate tree damage. That said, winds will likely be higher than Irene (maybe substantially so) and the duration will be incredibly impressive. So I'm really quite unsure what the final impact will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Canadian into NYC it appears on those crude maps or a bit south. NOGAPS/GGEM -- NYC proper NAM/GFS/UKIE (i think) and SREFs - C NJ (centered around there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Canadian into NYC it appears on those crude maps or a bit south. It appears we finally have real consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I feel confident in the impact I'm forecasting for the CT shoreline... devastating. Wind and surge worse than Irene. I'm actually pretty confident in that and it's pretty scary stuff. Inland I'm not as sure. Less rain means roots that aren't saturated plus many trees are in the process of losing their leaves inland (or almost all done in the hills). That should mitigate tree damage. That said, winds will likely be higher than Irene (maybe substantially so) and the duration will be incredibly impressive. So I'm really quite unsure what the final impact will be. Completely agree...this looks incredibly serious along the CT coast and I've been hitting this real hard to people. I seriously hope anyone along the immediate shore has taken the proper precautions and just gets the hell out. I've hit the wind damage/power outage potential real hard inland too but I know exactly what you mean...with less rain and more in the way of bare trees you would think that would mitigate things a bit...but then again what will a "bit" be in this case? Does it mean like 400,000 people lose power instead of like 600,000+? The duration of the winds just brings a whole different look to the wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I feel confident in the impact I'm forecasting for the CT shoreline... devastating. Wind and surge worse than Irene. I'm actually pretty confident in that and it's pretty scary stuff. Inland I'm not as sure. Less rain means roots that aren't saturated plus many trees are in the process of losing their leaves inland (or almost all done in the hills). That should mitigate tree damage. That said, winds will likely be higher than Irene (maybe substantially so) and the duration will be incredibly impressive. So I'm really quite unsure what the final impact will be. Yeah this looks awful for them. Good luck with that. At the conference, the fire chief of East Haven said there are two homes sitting their not tied down waiting to be put onto a foundation. Those people will probably lose a second home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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