Hurricane Sandy

[metagraphica]

Yes. I was shocked when I pulled up the 12z soundings on BUFKIT with just how windy it will get tomorrow evening.

this is going to be so untraditional. lol

I mentioned this yesterday that this might end up being 30+ hours of high winds for LI and CT/RI coastal areas.

[metagraphica]

959mb with 15kt surface winds on center dropsonde.

[jm1220]

Where's Peter Vinkman when you need 'im: "...If we're wrong, we'll go to jail! Peacefully. Quietly. But if we're right - Lenny, you, will have saved the lives of MILLIONS of registered voters.."

It does almost seem like we are witnessing a Hollywood cliche though - where the Mayor is falsely re-assuring to the provincial ignorant masses ...just before a Pompean eruption.

Watch, that azzhole will get lucky and it will pass to their north and clobber us instead. And I don't even want this damn thing - schit.

I'm thinking it's 50-50 that it will go north of NY harbor and spare many people vs. south and inundate much of the 5 boroughs and possibly the subways. Mayor Bloomberg also urged everyone to "get out and enjoy a Broadway show" immediately after the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard which shut the city down for 2-3 days and plows couldn't get to some residential streets in some cases for 5 days or more, so take whatever he says with a massive grain of salt.

[ineedsnow]

this really just killed me to read this atleast my family knows whats going on

http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/10/hurricane_sandy_downgraded_in.html#incart_river_default

[WilkesboroDude]

Fujiwhara dance...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

this really just killed me to read this atleast my family knows whats going on

http://www.masslive....t_river_default

Maybe one of the Mets can chime in on what the wind potential is in W MA. in the lower elevations. The hill towns are more likely to get the higher gusts but I'm not sure what the higher end wind potential is in the Ct Valley where most of the population is. The hills East of the valley (ORH, and the high points just W of the Quabbin) are over 1000' that may knock down the winds just a bit?

I don;t know enough meteorology to say how it will mix down into the valley.

I still think W. MA, especially N of I-90 is the least effected area of SNE, relatively speaking.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe one of the Mets can chime in on what the wind potential is in W MA. in the lower elevations. The hill towns are more likely to get the higher gusts but I'm not sure what the higher end wind potential is in the Ct Valley where most of the population is. The hills East of the valley (ORH, and the high points just W of the Quabbin) are over 1000' that may knock down the winds just a bit?

I don;t know enough meteorology to say how it will mix down into the valley.

I still think W. MA, especially N of I-90 is the least effected area of SNE, relatively speaking.

I think it will depend on how the storm tracks. If it tracks into NYC or even NE a bit, then I think just after 7-8pm Monday, winds will really increase. I would think 40-50mph or so..with potential gusts to 60 in the valley.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I think it will depend on how the storm tracks. If it tracks into NYC or even NE a bit, then I think just after 7-8pm Monday, winds will really increase. I would think 40-50mph or so..with potential gusts to 60 in the valley.

Thanks Scott. That's pretty serious if we're gusting to 50 or 60 in the valley. Outside of summer severe you just don't see that kind of wind around here.

Thankfully the past week has been rain free so the ground is unsaturated.

[CoastalWx]

FWIW, early cycle tropical models ticked NE again. I'd say the bigger difference is wider turn. IOW, they feature more of a wider turn west after starting out a little further NE.

[Superstorm93]

FWIW, early cycle tropical models ticked NE again. I'd say the bigger difference is wider turn. IOW, they feature more of a wider turn west after starting out a little further NE.

[CT Rain]

FWIW, early cycle tropical models ticked NE again. I'd say the bigger difference is wider turn. IOW, they feature more of a wider turn west after starting out a little further NE.

I think that makes sense.

[skierinvermont]

WARNING: This post contains weenie content not fit for the eyes of moderators.

OK so being a weenie, I checked out the GFS ensemble members to see how strong they are compared to the Op.. the average was 2mb deeper than the Op and the lowest was 4mb deeper. Only one was higher (by 1mb). I wonder if that means that the OP is if anything conservative, or if some bias makes the ensembles lower.

[dendrite]

21z SREF mean bumps north a bit from 15z into C NJ. Looks like a battle between NYC hits and S NJ hits.

[Bostonseminole]

NAM looks north of 18Z at 36hrs

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21z SREF mean bumps north a bit from 15z into C NJ. Looks like a battle between NYC hits and S NJ hits.

The reality is that even with some bumps N & S over the past 2 days we've had a lot of agreement on a hit from C NJ to NYC even if NHC was leaning a bit S of that. We are looking at a massive hit on one of the nations most populated areas no matter how much some people want to quibble over exact LF and at the end of the day that's what matters. Sometime tomorrow we head into now cast mode.

[GaryS]

Hurricane Sandy is now the 2nd largest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since 1988, tied with Hurricane Lili of 1996. Sandy's tropical storm-force winds now extend 450 nautical miles from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The #1 spot (Olga of 2001) is in jeopardy, as well.

[wxsniss]

fluctuating

000

URNT12 KNHC 280207

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 28/01:34:40Z

B. 30 deg 44 min N

074 deg 24 min W

C. 700 mb 2733 m

D. 41 kt

E. 303 deg 45 nm

F. 020 deg 47 kt

G. 303 deg 44 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 9 C / 3055 m

J. 15 C / 3050 m

K. 10 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF305 1818A SANDY OB 12

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 77 KT SE QUAD 01:50:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND SFMR SFC WIND 50 KT SE QUAD 01:49:00Z

;

[jm1220]

The reality is that even with some bumps N & S over the past 2 days we've had a lot of agreement on a hit from C NJ to NYC even if NHC was leaning a bit S of that. We are looking at a massive hit on one of the nations most populated areas no matter how much some people want to quibble over exact LF and at the end of the day that's what matters. Sometime tomorrow we head into now cast mode.

To be honest, right now I think it's 50/50 odds between north of NYC or south of NYC. The model trends today seem to have pointed north, and it's hard for me to see such a massive system pivot west very fast, although I certainly could be wrong. It would still be a bad storm regardless, but north vs south of you would make a huge difference in terms of surge on the immediate shore.

[yoda]

Looks like North Central Jersey Landfall coming watching 48... prob south of NYC by 50 miles or so... 960 mb on NCEP

[CoastalWx]

NAM is gonna be very close to 18z right near or just south of NYC.

[WilkesboroDude]

The reality is that even with some bumps N & S over the past 2 days we've had a lot of agreement on a hit from C NJ to NYC even if NHC was leaning a bit S of that. We are looking at a massive hit on one of the nations most populated areas no matter how much some people want to quibble over exact LF and at the end of the day that's what matters. Sometime tomorrow we head into now cast mode.

How does one simply now cast Sandy as early as tomorrow? I feel for you bro if you are going to now cast that entire turn. We have another full day of bumps north or south before Sandy even takes direct aim on the coast.

[Bostonseminole]

Looks like North Central Jersey Landfall coming watching 45... prob south of NYC by 50 miles or so

yeap.. maybe even a little further north.. close to staten island

[BeauDodson]

Looks like North Central Jersey Landfall coming watching 48... prob south of NYC by 50 miles or so... 960 mb on NCEP

Will be curious to see how the water levels compare historically with other events in the New York City area.

Reading from Mayor Bloomberg

“Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge. With this storm, we’ll likely see a slow pileup of water rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect with a hurricane, and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago.

“So it will be less dangerous – but make no mistake about it, there will be a lot of water and low-lying areas will experience flooding."

He doesn't sound as concerned as during Irene.

Joe D'Aleo mentioned this

STORM SURGE THREATS

Scott A. Mandia, Professor of Physical Sciences, SUNY Suffolk has put together an excellent page showing Long Island storm surge maps and animations here for various category hurricanes. From that site, the following

Hurricane storm surge causes approximately 90% of all storm deaths and injuries and much of the damage, therefore it is important for residents of Long Island, New York to be aware of the areas that will be affected by the storm surge. The southern shore of Long Island is most vulnerable to storm surge inundation because hurricane landfall will first occur there and the low elevation will allow sea water to move well inland.

The height of maximum storm surge is a function of storm strength, location of eye landfall, tidal time of landfall, elevation, and speed of storm. The images below represent the various regions of the southern shores of Long Island as well as the north and south forks as they would be affected by storm surge from various strength hurricanes. The images are derived from HURREVAC, a DOS-based software application that uses historical storm data and Long Island regional topography to estimate areas that would be inundated by water. (It should be noted that category 5 storm surges are not predicted by HURREVAC since there is little probability of such storms and no historical data exists for reference.) Each zone assumes landfall within that zone at normal tidal height. For high tide landfall, one would need to add 1/2 normal tide height to the predicted surge, while landfall at low tide would require a subtraction of 1/2 normal tide height from the predicted surge. The animated image was created using Microsoft GIF Animator and shows a loop of all maps within the zone with a five second interval between images.

[Logan11]

0Z NAM maybe around Neptune, NJ.... from what I can see....

[PhineasC]

Minimal rain north of central NJ.

[Superstorm93]

That's one heck of a consensus from the 18z GFS ensembles.

[yoda]

For landfall yes Superstorm... for where it goes after that, not really

[Logan11]

Proving what fools the NHC is if they don't hoist hurricane warnings. Bloomberg seems to be the first example of people not taking this seriously enough.

Will be curious to see how the water levels compare historically with other events in the New York City area.

Reading from Mayor Bloomberg

“Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge. With this storm, we’ll likely see a slow pileup of water rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect with a hurricane, and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago.

“So it will be less dangerous – but make no mistake about it, there will be a lot of water and low-lying areas will experience flooding."

He doesn't sound as concerned as during Irene.

[Bostonseminole]

950 winds still look 70+knots for the SNE coast

[SnoSki14]

But don't we still have a full day tomorrow, Bloomberg could easily change his statement as early as tomorrow morning.