CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still a lot of leaves on trees here, but most trees are changed, so perhaps leaves will get ripped off easier. The last 10 days have been mild and halted color change. Suburbs are primarily gone except for oaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Another jog North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 sandy looks like she is about to go into beast mode starting to look much better again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 HWRF is so far east...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About the watch or warning issue, I just can't help but wonder how Accu Weather would have handled this if they were in the driver's seat. If the NHC didn't exist, I think AccuWeather would probably be best able out of all the private weather services to handle the functions of the NHC. I don't think they would ever under-warn.... which is great. Joe Bastardi would hopefully come back to Accu Weather and run it. We'd have more hurricane compliance than ever before. It takes a good communicator to run an operation that the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFDL is east of ACY at hr 54. Would think extrapolation is near ctrl NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Maue on Twitter said GFDL inner grid too small to contain entire Sandy, and its output would be suspect. I think non-trops the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About the watch or warning issue, I just can't help but wonder how Accu Weather would have handled this if they were in the driver's seat. If the NHC didn't exist, I think AccuWeather would probably be best able out of all the private weather services to handle the functions of the NHC. I don't think they would ever under-warn.... which is great. Joe Bastardi would hopefully come back to Accu Weather and run it. We'd have more hurricane compliance than ever before. It takes a good communicator to run an operation that the NHC. Eventually, we'd probably have the boy who cried wolf effect at some point. High stakes forecasting is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 are hurricane models still appropriate to use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 are hurricane models still appropriate to use? Negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IMO I think what the models are showing is about the best we're going to get from them. When it comes to the landfall just going to come down to now casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 From Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli: To my friends in the NYC/NJ/LI area. I've had a lot of calls today so let me just address this here... Most of you know I have been immersed in the weather since I was 3 years old. I've seen just about everything in weather but I can tell you that I have never seen a storm quite like this one before. It is NOT the strongest storm I have ever seen. Hurricanes can...be much stronger. ... But here's what makes this different... I have never seen a "Nor'easter" this strong before. I have never seen a storm "back up" into the coast after being over the ocean, building seas, for many many days. I have never seen a storm that is so strong over such a giant "widespread" area. Typically the impacts are more localized... Not this one. Every storm has completely different outcomes. And since we have never seen anything quite like this before the impacts are difficult to predict. But here's what seems most likely... 1. Plan on being without power for at least a few days most areas. 2. If you live close to the ocean or bay expect coastal flooding worse then any other storm you have seen in that area. If you live near rivers that typically flood you can pretty much count on flooding again. 4. Expect it to be several days before "business as usual" is again possible. There will be many trees down and roads that will need clearing. Please pass this along if you feel it helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey guys let's try to get back on topic here. Storm looks better on satellite... and a friend sent this to me but the IKE in Sandy is a 5.2. Katrina/Wilma was a 5.0 and Ike was a 5.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey guys let's try to get back on topic here. Storm looks better on satellite... and a friend sent this to me but the IKE in Sandy is a 5.2. Katrina/Wilma was a 5.0 and Ike was a 5.4 IKE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 are hurricane models still appropriate to use? Certain ones. Some are intensity models, not all should be used with a storm like this. GFS/EURO certainly should be used so I guess I am disagreeing with some on here then. Also, disagree to be now-casting it's still a little early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey guys let's try to get back on topic here. Storm looks better on satellite... and a friend sent this to me but the IKE in Sandy is a 5.2. Katrina/Wilma was a 5.0 and Ike was a 5.4 What's te mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 good post he knows what hes talking about atleast hes trying to get the word out From Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli: To my friends in the NYC/NJ/LI area. I've had a lot of calls today so let me just address this here... Most of you know I have been immersed in the weather since I was 3 years old. I've seen just about everything in weather but I can tell you that I have never seen a storm quite like this one before. It is NOT the strongest storm I have ever seen. Hurricanes can...be much stronger. ... But here's what makes this different... I have never seen a "Nor'easter" this strong before. I have never seen a storm "back up" into the coast after being over the ocean, building seas, for many many days. I have never seen a storm that is so strong over such a giant "widespread" area. Typically the impacts are more localized... Not this one. Every storm has completely different outcomes. And since we have never seen anything quite like this before the impacts are difficult to predict. But here's what seems most likely... 1. Plan on being without power for at least a few days most areas. 2. If you live close to the ocean or bay expect coastal flooding worse then any other storm you have seen in that area. If you live near rivers that typically flood you can pretty much count on flooding again. 4. Expect it to be several days before "business as usual" is again possible. There will be many trees down and roads that will need clearing. Please pass this along if you feel it helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IKE? http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IKE - Integrated Kinetic Energy- like ACE but ACE is max winds only, IKE also factors for wind field size, so a better measure of overall storm power. A large Cat 2 (Hrcn Ike) can be as damaging as a smaller Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What's te mean? Dvorak I believe 5.5 102 960 102 being knots 960 being central press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey guys let's try to get back on topic here. Storm looks better on satellite... and a friend sent this to me but the IKE in Sandy is a 5.2. Katrina/Wilma was a 5.0 and Ike was a 5.4 Hey Ryan, can you elaborate further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey guys let's try to get back on topic here. Storm looks better on satellite... and a friend sent this to me but the IKE in Sandy is a 5.2. Katrina/Wilma was a 5.0 and Ike was a 5.4 I'm only in a few minutes at a time tonight...just delete crap as you see fit. Whichever poster has the most crap deleted, they will be banned for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IKE is a more complicated calculation, winds speed converted to energy, and then integrated for area affected. Also a snapshot calculation, unlike ACE. IKE is a better measure of damage potential than just Saffir Simpson scale. Probably comparing IKE to SS scale is better than saying ACE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm only in a few minutes at a time tonight...just delete crap as you see fit. Whichever poster has the most crap deleted, they will be banned for the storm. I just deleted like 10 posts. Guys storm stuff only... no IMBY questions etc. If you have a question ask in the banter thread or even experiment with that amazing thing called Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 She truly is massive http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=ir&size=large&endDate=20121028&endTime=-1&duration=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 while the core of this is on monday...i think it's going to rip out here pretty good starting late tomorrow afternoon. soundings suggest good mixing through the night and we are already tapping into a decent NE jet so could be gusting to 35 to 40 mph through a good chunk of sunday night, before things ramp up toward morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HWRF is so far east...lol. I believe the one of the few models that initialized with correct pressures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 while the core of this is on monday...i think it's going to rip out here pretty good starting late tomorrow afternoon. soundings suggest good mixing through the night and we are already tapping into a decent NE jet so could be gusting to 35 to 40 mph through a good chunk of sunday night, before things ramp up toward morning. Yes. I was shocked when I pulled up the 12z soundings on BUFKIT with just how windy it will get tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I believe the one of the few models that initialized with correct pressures I dunno...that looks too far east imo, despite the "correct" pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yes. I was shocked when I pulled up the 12z soundings on BUFKIT with just how windy it will get tomorrow evening. this is going to be so untraditional. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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