Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy Hook is 10 miles by the way the crow flies from Brooklyn...people need to stop obsessing over the exact landfall spot. Yeah 10 or so miles. I'm not sure what's going on does someone have a bet going on or something and didn't we create subforums for this reason? Nobody is getting snow we can all relax! All models point to a major destructive event along the eastern seaboard. What is the consensus on storm surge in Li sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For those obsessing over the landfall, NWS BOX had a very good part of their discussion that everyone should read and actually digest. LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL HELP EXPAND THE GRADIENT WIND FIELD. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE TWO WIND MAXES...ONE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH 80-90 KT AT 925 MB! 12Z GEFS HAS +6 STD WIND ANOMALY AT 925 MB NEAR BID 18Z MON! THIS WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS DO NOT FOCUS ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL! DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH OF SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just want to remind folks near the epicenter of Sandy that widespread power outages will result in cell phone service going down. The generators at the towers usually have about 12 - 24 hours of gas. After Oct. snow storm last year we lost cell service about 12 hours in. Generators will last a couple of days; sites will last on batteries anywhere from 2-8 hours on batteries alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For those obsessing over the landfall, NWS BOX had a very good part of their discussion that everyone should read and actually digest. LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL HELP EXPAND THE GRADIENT WIND FIELD. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE TWO WIND MAXES...ONE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH 80-90 KT AT 925 MB! 12Z GEFS HAS +6 STD WIND ANOMALY AT 925 MB NEAR BID 18Z MON! THIS WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS DO NOT FOCUS ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL! DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH OF SANDY. Nonsense, Sandy hook means way more then Belmar NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nonsense, Sandy hook means way more then Belmar NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the duration of this event is going to take a lower end situation and make it far worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ginx just told me that CLP is shutting off all power in Coastal CT tomorrow night. I don't quite understand why though. He's at his museum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Threat of the strongest winds clearly shifting NE of NYC into New England now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the duration of this event is going to take a lower end situation and make it far worse This. This is a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ginx just told me that CLP is shutting off all power in Coastal CT tomorrow night. I don't quite understand why though. He's at his museum Probably to guard against a cascading failure in the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the duration of this event is going to take a lower end situation and make it far worse I like how even though the LLJ weakens, CAA means SE gales because you mix better. Mixing doesn't look great overall, but when you have near 100kts at 925mb....A blue jay farting would bring much of that to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Probably to guard against a cascading failure in the system. What would that mean? A cascading failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What would that mean? A cascading failure Should I stay home or watch from UConn? Where's the damage gonna be worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the duration of this event is going to take a lower end situation and make it far worse people are so fixed on the LF and pressure..i feel the duration is what could make this historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Should I stay home or watch from UConn? Where's the damage gonna be worse? Both equally as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The squeeze from that high strengthening in N New Foundland really helps enhance the LLJ. That high strengthens every step of the way as Sandy is coming north. Not too dissimilar in the way the December 1992 high kept strengthening as that storm approached then stalled. The difference is the high isn't quite as close...but that is of course why Dec 1992 only got down to 987mb but produced like 90mph gusts. Sandy could get into the 950mb range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like LL is going to have to vacate tu casa Fairfield PD @FPDCT EVACUATION UPDATE / MAP: Residents in the highlighted areas of this map are required to evacuate beginning Sunday...http://fb.me/1O3Cwk3AA Retweeted by Joe Furey View photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Joe--I think you misunderstood me. There comments were funny--the reality of the situation is far from it. I tried to point that out in my statement. If that got lost, I spoke clumsily. No worries Mike, I am exhausted and probably read it wrong, looking forward to the wind, surge not so much but we are prepared and have done everything we can do........time to settle in and enjoy quite the show from mother nature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What would that mean? A cascading failure Im no engineer, but I would guess that it means the shutdown would be effected so as to isolate the damage and keep it from propagating further into the system. Since its expected that many coastal areas will be contending with surge and flood issues that we further inland wouldnt expect, they are trying to isolate those areas. Apparently, outages in the system are contagious! Anybody know if this is close to the reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Im no engineer, but I would guess that it means the shutdown would be effected so as to isolate the damage and keep it from propagating further into the system. Since its expected that many coastal areas will be contending with surge and flood issues that we further inland wouldnt expect, they are trying to isolate those areas. Anybody know if this is close to the reason? Cascading failure is a common effect seen in high voltage systems, where a single point of failure (SPF) on a fully loaded or slightly overloaded system results in a sudden spike across all nodes of the system. This surge current can induce the already overloaded nodes into failure, setting off more overloads and thereby taking down the entire system in a very short time. This failure process cascades through the elements of the system like a ripple on a pond and continues until substantially all of the elements in the system are compromised and/or the system becomes functionally disconnected from the source of its load. For example, under certain conditions a large power grid can collapse after the failure of a single transformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Cascading failure is a common effect seen in high voltage systems, where a single point of failure (SPF) on a fully loaded or slightly overloaded system results in a sudden spike across all nodes of the system. This surge current can induce the already overloaded nodes into failure, setting off more overloads and thereby taking down the entire system in a very short time. This failure process cascades through the elements of the system like a ripple on a pond and continues until substantially all of the elements in the system are compromised and/or the system becomes functionally disconnected from the source of its load. For example, under certain conditions a large power grid can collapse after the failure of a single transformer. Great explanation.. thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That Nogaps is absolutely frightening for ALL of SNE. Dear Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sounds like Bloomberg says no evacs need and wont be that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ginx just told me that CLP is shutting off all power in Coastal CT tomorrow night. I don't quite understand why though. He's at his museum If this were true, I'm sure it would be up on CL&P's web site already warning people. There are people whose lives depend on having power, so they aren't going to just turn off power whenever they feel like it without notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That Nogaps is absolutely frightening for ALL of SNE. Dear Lord Wow! Talk about ne trend.. Thats just obscene! But then, it IS the nogaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The NOGAPS is useless. I think yesterday it had landfall down in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The NOGAPS is useless. I think yesterday it had landfall down in Virginia. Doesn't it now have 4DVR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sounds like Bloomberg says no evacs need and wont be that bad Says it wont be worse than Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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