Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Boy---looks like the NAM's coming in west...... Moving NNW off SC?? Might just be a wobble at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some of the surface pressure fields actually show some CAD for a time...makes sense with big HP and autumn air mass in place Yeah...there should be a decent northerly isallobaric ageostrophic component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm absolutely SHOCKED the NHC will not be issuing watches/warnings. What a STUPID decision. Now we'll have a hodgepodge of watches and warnings from local offices. To make matters even worse... we'll likely be blanketed in a high wind warning which is no different then what we see 5 or 6 times a winter From a public awareness standpoint, this is a bad decision. In fact, if Sandy winds up having a very destructive impact, the public could well argue that the NHC blew the forecast by failing to issue hurricane watches/warnings. Public perceptions matter and exact scientific details won't be an adequate counterargument. Even some politicians--namely the anti-NWS ones--might exploit that situation e.g., when it comes to finding spending reductions for dealing with the "fiscal cliff" or subsequent efforts at deficit reduction. For years afterward, it might be commonly argued that the NHC failed to forecast the biggest storm in perhaps decades in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Such claims can still be heard from some about Ernesto. This will almost certainly be much worse than Ernesto. In the end, the sad thing will be that such public perceptions had been entirely avoidable and that the outcome was wholly self-inflicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Already colder air CU on satellite, so it's on it's way to extra-tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Might just be a wobble at that time frame. Might be right--looks like it bounced back eastward at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To me it looks like it is move NE east through 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting the turn left at 36-42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To me it looks like it is move NE east through 36... Yeah--my post was at 27 where it appeared to go west, but apparently was a wobble. Don't have an over lay of the 06 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Significantly further east thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The word is out and this town is prepared . Excellent staging area set up at one of the commuter lots filled with various vehicles and town trucks. Excellent website with alert system sent to all devices. Surge expected to surpass 92, we shall see.... Sandymonium in full effect this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 At 48 hours, there is some seriously intense rain over the Mid-Atlantic. Flooding anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Starting the turn left at 36-42 hrs. ?????? looks like it's going N to NE through 48 to my eyes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Feeling better and better that'll ill have power tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow - where are the Mets to interpret the NAM? I appreciate those of trying to do it, but expert analysis would be great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Significantly further east thru 42 Yep, looking like a NNJ/Sandy Hook hit this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Provided there is not a hard left hook, I definitely think it is NYC or West LI on this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Feeling better and better that'll ill have power tuesday really I've seen people lose power for less than Sandy, all you need is one tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just south of sandy hook nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 really I've seen people lose power for less than Sandy, all you need is one tree. Yeah I agree. I think there will be massive power outages from this. Especially if LF is Sandy Hook to LI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 really I've seen people lose power for less than Sandy, all you need is one tree. Reverse psychology Will the outages top last October though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like it'll be C NJ 57-60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM is CNJ essentially. I don't think we'll see all that much change from here on out...actual LF probably a tick S from there. Doesn't matter. People are too obsessed with the LF point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm absolutely SHOCKED the NHC will not be issuing watches/warnings. What a STUPID decision. Now we'll have a hodgepodge of watches and warnings from local offices. To make matters even worse... we'll likely be blanketed in a high wind warning which is no different then what we see 5 or 6 times a winter :axe: Agree 110% Ryan! Relying on a HWW when the potential exists for hurricane force winds from a transitioning tropical system just doesn't make sense. I imagine most of the public will perceive a HWW as less of a threat than a Hurricane or Hurricane force wind warning. If CT ends up with 800k without power again, the public will be wondering what the hell happened. But I trust you guys in the media will be hammering this hard reminding viewers we can and likely will have tropical storm or even hurricane force winds without a warning from the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 At least through 63, doesn't look like it wants to go anywhere.....lingering a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm speaking of imby. No power loss during Irene or the Halloween storm here. I doubt we lose it with a track into NJ from the sse either. Sans the big loop underneath...this will be impressive but I've seen just as ba in April 06 etc. For a lot of you different story. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 70kt 950mb winds along the coast of SW ME at 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro ensemble mean is into ACY and that's my landfall guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm speaking of imby. No power loss during Irene or the Halloween storm here. I doubt we lose it with a track into NJ from the sse either. Sans the big loop underneath...this will be impressive but I've seen just as ba in April 06 etc. For a lot of you different story. Good luck I disagree Scott. I'd expect to get whacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm speaking of imby. No power loss during Irene or the Halloween storm here. I doubt we lose it with a track into NJ from the sse either. Sans the big loop underneath...this will be impressive but I've seen just as ba in April 06 etc. For a lot of you different story. Good luck I lost power for 6 days and I'm only 35-40 miles from you. I'm hoping not to live through that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro ensemble mean is into ACY and that's my landfall guess Acy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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