rivers Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol my location says im in palm coast,but im up here visiting in branford sorry should have been more clear..I thought id share simply because thats amazing forcast for here..thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 State of Emergency for CT, just great. Should I consider evacuating? I'm 33 ft ASL and under 1/4 mile from the sound. Yes!... Can I watch your house for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Bookmark these folks..These are all keepers..Hot off the press from BOX EVEN THOUGH THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION... SANDY IS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM. THIS MAY BE A VERY CATASTROPHIC AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEIGHBORING LOCALITIES. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO HURRICANE FORCE. DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES /LIKELY FOR DAYS/ WOULD BE ANTICIPATED. Looks like something to forget about not save, not great that people will be homeless or quite possibly be injured/killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You'll be OK. You live in West Haven, not Port-au-Prince. And this is a transitioning tropical storm, not Katrina. I think we're letting our imaginations run wild here. To be fair they are expecting the surge to be worse than 38, coastal residents should treat this as a cat 2-3 surge and just forget what its called or classified. I think its fair to be concerned looking at the greatest tidal surge in recorded history. A balance between pure hype and complacency will work well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 5 pm track remain same.... messenger and others better call NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol at the posters from other regions coming in here. Happens in our area during big LES events, LOL! Good luck to you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I know there's a few posters today that attacked me who don't even live here or have between 15 and 62 posts LOL. I don't get why it's allowed. None of us go to other forums. Did you board or tape up any windows? Nah...i don't think the wind will blow out any of my windows and I don't expect there will be that kind of flying debris in my exact spot... I think some folks down here should be doing that though. My anemometer on my roof is just about 10 meters and has great clearance in all directions so hoping for some good readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Clearly you aren't understanding the situation. Unfortunate LOL. I understand it fine. It is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation and I prepared days ago. It is not however the apocalypse as some are hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sun setting on Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Will...how long are the damaging winds projected to last..Are we still looking at 24-36 hours of strong, damaging winds? Will they still be cranking even on Tuesday? This is the point forecast for 2,000ft *up here* this far north.... wow! We are going to absolutely rock at the ski resort. And wondering how long winds last? BTV has "Windy" in the forecast through Thursday! Monday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Very windy, with a east wind 43 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Night Rain, mainly before 2am. Low around 49. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 75 to 85 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 48. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 50% Thursday A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nah...i don't think the wind will blow out any of my windows and I don't expect there will be that kind of flying debris in my exact spot... I think some folks down here should be doing that though. My anemometer on my roof is just about 10 meters and has great clearance in all directions so hoping for some good readings Nice..Hope you can record some of the gusts to 80 or 90mph on that .. I am gonna move my davis inside tomorrow night..It'll be blown away if I leave it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Happens in our area during big LES events, LOL! Good luck to you guys! Oh no I just mean people seem awfully concerned about who is posting what and when etc. Actual valuable input is great and welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 As a frame of reference will interior SNE winds be comparable to Irene with current track? Was looking at obs from Irene and saw that BED never gusted above 50 mph ORH was 52 mph. BOS had gust to 63 mph. Less leaves on trees now of course. so those same winds would probably cause less outages in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I wouldn't come here for advice on specific evacuations. Run from the water, hide from the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Northern CT ZFP... CTZ003-280800- TOLLAND CT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANSFIELD...STAFFORD SPRINGS...VERNON 415 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH... INCREASING TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY...SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH... INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. VERY WINDY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. What's real interesting is that my zone forecast way up here (two counties south of Canada) is showing higher gusts than the zones in interior CT... compare above to below. BTV pegging gusts to 75mph in the mountain valleys. I have a real hard time seeing that verify. Summit of Mansfield at 4,000ft is a lock for 100+ though. Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Windy with highs in the upper 50s. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Monday Night: Rain. Very windy with lows in the mid 50s. East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 75 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is the point forecast for 2,000ft *up here* this far north.... wow! We are going to absolutely rock at the ski resort. And wondering how long winds last? BTV has "Windy" in the forecast through Thursday! Monday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Very windy, with a east wind 43 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Night Rain, mainly before 2am. Low around 49. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 75 to 85 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 48. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 50% Thursday A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Most of us don't live at 2K though...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I wonder how spots like Norfolk will do at about 1800 ft? Mount Greylock should rock at 4000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Patrick pulls trigger on State of Emergency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Most of us don't live at 2K though...lol Yeah I don't either... but a lot live in the 1,000-2,000ft band. 2,000ft is *not* that high up relatively speaking around here for over 100mph gusts. I have friends that live at 2,300ft at Bolton Valley. Even our zone forecast (for valley locations) has winds of 75mph, while the CT zones don't go above 60mph. More odd than anything. I figured it would be the other way around with BOX forecasting gusts to 70-80mph and BTV up to 50-60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 do you fall under the mandatory evac joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 5 pm track remain same.... messenger and others better call NHC why would they change it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm surprised BOX seemed a little tame with the wind inland... hitting the coastal plain and south coast hardest. Only mentioning 50kt gusts in the interior when I thought most models had 70-90kts just off the deck. Judging by some of the posts here, I was hoping for some good ol' hurricane wind forecasts beyond the counties right along the shore. WIND... LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL HELP EXPAND THE GRADIENT WIND FIELD. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE TWO WIND MAXES...ONE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH 80-90 KT AT 925 MB! 12Z GEFS HAS +6 STD WIND ANOMALY AT 925 MB NEAR BID 18Z MON! THIS WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS DO NOT FOCUS ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL! DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH OF SANDY. 12Z GFS SIMILAR IDEA BUT MORE BROAD BRUSHED GIVEN LOWER RESOLUTION. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50+ KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION /COASTAL PLAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN/ MON AND THEN AGAIN MON NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM E TO SE. THEREFORE WILL BLANKET ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH TO ADDRESS THIS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FROM BID-MVY-ACK-CAPE COD AND THE ENTIRE COASTAL PLAIN. LESS CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. HOWEVER FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THE X-FACTOR WILL BE ESPECIALLY EAST SLOPES OF BERKS/WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS LOW PROB OF UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THUS SATURATED GROUND MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR DOWNED TREES. OTHER FACTOR THAT MAY INCREASE WIND DAMAGE RISK IS IF ANY CONVECTIVE/FEEDER BANDS/SQUALLS DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST SHALLOW UPDRAFTS GIVEN SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK. THIS WAS THE CASE WITH IRENE WHEN MOST WIND DAMAGED OCCURRED WITH CONVECTIVE/FEEDER BAND/SQUALLS. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE POTENTIAL BANDS WOULD DEVELOP. THUS LARGE HIGH WIND WATCH JUSTIFIED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nice..Hope you can record some of the gusts to 80 or 90mph on that .. I am gonna move my davis inside tomorrow night..It'll be blown away if I leave it out there. Blown away by 60mph wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 convection rebuilding on NW side of center having more stack'd appearence as well last 2 frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm surprised BOX seemed a little tame with the wind inland... hitting the coastal plain and south coast hardest. Only mentioning 50kt gusts in the interior when I thought most models had 70-90kts just off the deck. Judging by some of the posts here, I was hoping for some good ol' hurricane wind forecasts beyond the counties right along the shore. WIND... LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL HELP EXPAND THE GRADIENT WIND FIELD. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE TWO WIND MAXES...ONE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH 80-90 KT AT 925 MB! 12Z GEFS HAS +6 STD WIND ANOMALY AT 925 MB NEAR BID 18Z MON! THIS WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS DO NOT FOCUS ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL! DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH OF SANDY. 12Z GFS SIMILAR IDEA BUT MORE BROAD BRUSHED GIVEN LOWER RESOLUTION. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50+ KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION /COASTAL PLAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN/ MON AND THEN AGAIN MON NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM E TO SE. THEREFORE WILL BLANKET ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH TO ADDRESS THIS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FROM BID-MVY-ACK-CAPE COD AND THE ENTIRE COASTAL PLAIN. LESS CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. HOWEVER FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THE X-FACTOR WILL BE ESPECIALLY EAST SLOPES OF BERKS/WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS LOW PROB OF UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THUS SATURATED GROUND MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR DOWNED TREES. OTHER FACTOR THAT MAY INCREASE WIND DAMAGE RISK IS IF ANY CONVECTIVE/FEEDER BANDS/SQUALLS DEVELOP AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST SHALLOW UPDRAFTS GIVEN SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK. THIS WAS THE CASE WITH IRENE WHEN MOST WIND DAMAGED OCCURRED WITH CONVECTIVE/FEEDER BAND/SQUALLS. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE POTENTIAL BANDS WOULD DEVELOP. THUS LARGE HIGH WIND WATCH JUSTIFIED. 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 People get obsessed with the track when its a tropical cyclone...but when its transitioning to extra tropical, the effects are obscene well away from the center. In hurricane Hazel in 1954, NYC saw like 100mph gusts with the storm landfalling in NC and tracking through central PA. The biggest single factor for SNE winds will be the low level jet to the north and northeast of the storm. The surge will be affected by the angle of attack...whether its worse for Narragansett or the eastern facing shores and LI sound. Record high winds I think it was over 100 mph (107?) perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Question for our awesome Mets.........with these type winds, besides shingles and such, is there now a chance for real structural damage? Not a met but the biggest issue as far as wind is concerned will probably be more with trees breaking and being knocked downed. If the soil is saturated it doesn't take much wind to knock a tree down and a tree on your house or car is no fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just pulled out the BUFKIT for 18z NAM...the LLJ is just really impressive on this thing. The GFS profiles are slightly more impressive, but all of the guidance has 100 knots somewhere in the low levels. I'm thinking we might be able to get some 75 knot gusts on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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