Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Rather large shift My feeling looking at the last few days is that there is going to be a continued adjustment NE. To what degree? Who knows... NCEP full diagnostic ...HURRICANE SANDY... BASED ON THE NAM/ECMWF BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSES... THE MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED SANDY ABOUT 20 NM E OF THE OBSERVED 12Z POSN OF 28.8N 76.8W. THEIR CNTRL PRESSURES ARE ABOUT 10 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. THE GFS BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVED POSN... THOUGH THE GFS CNTRL PRES IS 10-15 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. THE NAM BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE 15Z NHC TRACK DURING THE DAY SUN AND THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NWD THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK INTO MON NIGHT. FROM MON NIGHT THRU TUE THE NAM BRINGS THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION OF SANDY FARTHER WWD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE OR NHC TRACK. THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM COMPARES SOMEWHAT BETTER TO CURRENT CLUSTERING BY THAT PART OF THE FCST. THE GFS STRAYS TO THE NE/N OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK F36-60 LATE SUN-LATE MON... CURLING A LITTLE TO THE W/S BY TUE. BY F84 LATE TUE THE GFS CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE SEWD OF THE NAM. FOR MOST OF THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE FCST THE GFS IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UKMET IS ONE OTHER SOLN ABOUT AS STG AT THE SFC IN SPITE OF BEING WEAKER ALOFT. THE UKMET TRACES A WIDER ARC THAN CONSENSUS/OFFICIAL TRACK FROM SUN ONWARD AS DOES THE CANADIAN REG GEM THRU F48 EARLY MON. THE CANADIAN GLBL SHOWS A TRACK INCREASINGLY TO THE RIGHT OF OFFICIAL FCST... NOT FAR FROM BEING A FASTER/SLIGHTLY SWD VERSION OF THE UKMET. THE ECMWF DRIFTS SOMEWHAT RIGHT OF THE NHC TRACK SUN-MON BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD THAT TRACK BY F72-84 TUE. CONSULT LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Note sure if already posted. Just got out of a long conference call in but wow...1938 -esque track on the UK If you post things like that Andy, you get accused of wishing it north by several of the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I the only person from sne that would have real surge issues and be evacuated? im in short beach branford..the water from irene came close last time im at 9 feet so im very concerned about flooding also have the tidal marsh behind me where the east haven trolly tracks are so i can be cut off if it goes 12 feet im in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 When I read the model interpretation during the middle of model run it's always like I'm looking at a different model. I hear how the euro has trended n and then look and see a very slight difference with the model almost the same landfall as the srn gfs that some folks were saying was by itself even though gefs ens mean was also in the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The landfall point wasn't the issue as much as how it got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 im in short beach branford..the water from irene came close last time im at 9 feet so im very concerned about flooding also have the tidal marsh behind me where the east haven trolly tracks are so i can be cut off if it goes 12 feet im in trouble. Then get out of there. You can't take it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nhc really should adjust their maps now Why? EURO is well within their cone. Or are you looking at the possible center strike this far out to be adjusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For those interested Topic: Perfect Storm 2 (2012) Author: Mike Zuranski Message: From Mike I've been working on this yesterday and today, and I'm pleased to announce the release of a temporary sector just for Sandy as it makes landfall in the northeast. It's a minimal selection of products that are zoomed in slightly and a bit easier to read than some of the other images that we offer. It's running for both the NAM and GFS, and both models offer a Total Precip Accumulation product so we can more easily see the rainfall impact. This sector will be removed once its usefulness has expired. http://weather.cod.edu/~zuranski/sandy.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I mean any chance phase keeps coming later until its in the GOM?..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If you post things like that Andy, you get accused of wishing it north by several of the weenies I didn't say anything about wish casting or make a forecast for that matter I just posted what I am looking at amongst the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wxrisk.com 41 minutes ago ** YES I SAW IT 12Z EUR0 CAME NORTH .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't feel the nhc needs to adjust their cone. All possibilities still exist for sandy. It's far enough out that we could still see some abrupt shifts either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't feel the nhc needs to adjust their cone. All possibilities still exist for sandy. It's far enough out that we could still see some abrupt shifts either way. They want to avoid the Windshield Wiper effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro came into the gfs/gfes consensus. all three have almost the exact same path with minor timing differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro came into the gfs/gfes consensus. all three have almost the exact same path with minor timing differences with landfall in southern nj, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GFS sounding for Boston 0z Tuesday: Amazing 925mb and above... similar readings even up to NH/ME border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BSE? Best Surge Ever? You can mow the seaweed in pretty patterns That is very funny---now, We'lll see come Wednesday if he's laughing though. I just got a robocall from WMECO (Western Mass Electric) about storm preparations/what to do, etc.). Never got one of those before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 with landfall in southern nj, correct? south central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Definitely looks like the centers became disjointed. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 euro did go north by about 75-100 miles (which is significant) and the track it took to get there was significant in the increased effects it would have for SNE, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 euro did go north by about 75-100 miles (which is significant) and the track it took to get there was significant in the increased effects it would have for SNE, no? Yes to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 havent got one from wmeco yet but I did from the town of agawam last night That is very funny---now, We'lll see come Wednesday if he's laughing though. I just got a robocall from WMECO (Western Mass Electric) about storm preparations/what to do, etc.). Never got one of those before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Definitely looks like the centers became disjointed. http://www.ssd.noaa....gb-animated.gif its under 30 to 40 knots of shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The landfall point wasn't the issue as much as how it got there. It's a 100 mile move NE from the same time period at the 0z. That's huge. When the southern outlier comes north that much in one run - and still at 60-70 hours and with any potential adjustment in escape/speed ENE before the swing being amplified later - not sure what people are looking at. It's like people want to pick and choose model run/hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro appears to have much lower wind speeds than GFS on WU Maps. Anyone care to comment on the accuracy of that assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some posters have blinders on Speak for yourself... The Euro and GFS are basically near each other... and ensembles agree. Its not in NYC where you claim it is over and over... its in C NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wont be too long (12-18 hrs) before Sandy is supposed to begin to show signs of turning back to the north. If we see any further delay in phasing it will have to show in the 0z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not calling you narrow minded. But when someone suggests a model solution isn't meteorologically sound, usually some reasoning follows yeah, the funny thing is I accidentally hit reply before I wanted to and just said ah f it. What I was going say is that it takes time for the internal processes of the cyclone engine to convert - if we look at other examples of warm seclusions, its a long process. Initially the warmer cord of Sandy would resist moving the cyclone across the faster flow part of the geoptential gradient, too. It's like the left solutions are processing the cyclone like it is already converted. It's going to be fascinating to now cast this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That is very funny---now, We'lll see come Wednesday if he's laughing though. I just got a robocall from WMECO (Western Mass Electric) about storm preparations/what to do, etc.). Never got one of those before. Why would I be laughing facing this storm at my location? I find it strange this close in to even joke about stuff like that...this is serious its not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I know he often gets a lot of flack, too, but what do people think of this: http://www.geofffox.com/MT/archives/2012/10/27/sandy-remains-an-impressive-threat.php Accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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