Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 70W seems to be the dividing line for the NJ coast. I think if it gets east of there, the LI landfall idea is more likely. If it stays west, it should be a NJ landfall. Yeah...70 was the cutoff it seems to the southern solutions. Time window is closing now I think the SW tracks are gonzo. Now the question is are the models dead right or is the NE drift (again over several days on average) still done? We'll know soon. Euro also makes a much wider turn. Far more serious. Yes much more ominous. BTW hi Phil I had no idea that was you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro also makes a much wider turn. Far more serious. Track after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BSE? Best Surge Ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I the only person from sne that would have real surge issues and be evacuated? You can mow the seaweed in pretty patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This thread is funny. Everyone wishing maximum destruction. A Dr Phil study right here. Eh, depends - that's certainly not in my interests. Selfishly ... I only care that I don't lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BSE? Best Surge Ever? I will have a good show, thats for sure. Riding it out solo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 phil does it start moving WSW around hr 72 or so Thats very important. Winds will have the strongest onshore component post landfall, a SW turn moves the onshore flow south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No Deleware is worse case for NYC. All it needs is a small shift north now for the surge to miss NYC. Winds a hit no matter what. It won't have much of a core. BOS will have the same windspeeds as NYC. The winds are slightly weaker for LI sound if it is SNJ or south.. central NJ, or NNJ it doesn't matter. Also with a CNJ/NNJ landfall pressures are lower. And yeah, this run increases odds of a miss to the east for NYC, but verbatim it is worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No Deleware is worse case for NYC. All it needs is a small shift north now for the surge to miss NYC. Winds a hit no matter what. It won't have much of a core. BOS will have the same windspeeds as NYC. Uhm no. We get a surge from the sound and from NY Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh boy..A NYC landfall or LI landfall is now imminent... Worst case scenario for all of us. LOL right after everyone says CNJ or south of NYC. The effects will be the same for you dude. Don't worry if it's south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Track after? WSW, More west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BSE? Best Surge Ever? 10-15 feet in western sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is the Windfield on the EC similar to GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yes, I'm narrow minded - If you think I'm feeble minded enough to say it doesn't look that way because of its unprecedented nature you are not correct with that assessment. Not calling you narrow minded. But when someone suggests a model solution isn't meteorologically sound, usually some reasoning follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I the only person from sne that would have real surge issues and be evacuated? Depends where you live. I'm just north of downtown fairfield and am expecting absolutely no problems with surge. I have a friend who lives on fairfield beach road though...not looking good at all for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WSW, More west Probably inundated with rain here in that solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh boy..A NYC landfall or LI landfall is now imminent... And how exactly do you figure that? It's two to three days away and the models have been fluctuating all on the Jersey and Delaware coast. So the latest Euro run, the same Euro you have been trashing all day because it was a miss shifts up north and all of a sudden you can declare a LI landfall imminent. SMH, give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pressure has risen to 962 mb, up from the lowest pressure of 957 mb 6 hours ago. I don't think weakening was projected but then again 6 hours is such a short period it could easily not show up on the global models. I'm not using any of the hurricane models because this is far from a tropical cyclone. I'll be surprised if the pressure doesn't begin to fall in the next 6 hours. Temperature only 3 °C warmer in the eye than the environment, so the warm core is weakening. Convection needs to fire near the center to strengthen the warm core and restart intensification. i would think that if in 36 hours this loses it's warm core more, than there would be increased chance for an earlier phase and a further south landfall, if blocking and trough are still model'd the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Probably inundated with rain here in that solution? 0-120hr total QPF 6"+ contour runs from about ACY-MQS-ADW-NHK-WAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 surge map http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WU Euro maps are out. They have landfall just under 948mb into C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-vis-long.html seems like the LLC just shed something in the last couple hours is that the MLC and LLC becoming disjointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Net change 0z to 12z Euro is about 100 miles NE per the high res maps at h66 on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Net change 0z to 12z Euro is about 100 miles NE per the high res maps at h66 on the 12z Rather large shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nhc really should adjust their maps now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Timing wise any major shift from 0z to 12z? Just seeing if the models are simply delaying the phase. If so then further NE would seem to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro is 946-947 mb at landfall on the Euro per wundermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Timing wise any major shift from 0z to 12z? Just seeing if the models are simply delaying the phase. If so then further NE would seem to be possible. Yeah, unless in 12 hours the EURO decides the phase occurs a little earlier than now suggested. Still plenty of time for other "minor" adjustments north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Note sure if already posted. Just got out of a long conference call in but wow...1938 -esque track on the UK [ attachment=76033:60.jpg] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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