dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How strong is it? I have it a 956mb or less on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Okay me FTL on not worrying about the winds. Euro fans FTL for not seeing what was a model trend at 12z when you back away the American stuff. That NHC cone has to come way north pronto. It has landfall in central NJ. That would appear to be within the NHC cone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You may have better graphics tough to tell. Fist pumps with Dave at the conference. I've got just sw of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How are you determining what runs don't look meteorologically sound?? Anomalous, sure, but claiming it doesn't look meteorologically sound just because it's unprecedented is a little narrow-minded Yes, I'm narrow minded - If you think I'm feeble minded enough to say it doesn't look that way because of its unprecedented nature you are not correct with that assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Read that Tweet about 10 times, and I have no idea actual meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just south of Sandy Hook. Just a nightmare scenario for the entire south coast, the cape and islands, cape cod bay and of course LIS. Tremendous surge into NYC, that was the doomsday run right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I mean... Thinking has been CNJ for days. Maybe the thinking here on this forum, but not overall. I'm not getting into the NHC discussion other than to say I'm not buying that their cone was intending to show a low passing into NJ...they were well south and are going to have to move the cone well north at 2 or 5pm. I also think when you look at the totality of the last several days there is a definitive move of all the models moving slightly NE in general. There's still a decent chance this swings through LI, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have it a 956mb or less on SV I have a 952mb contour at 66h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I've got just sw of NYC Thanks tough to tell on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh boy..A NYC landfall or LI landfall is now imminent... Worst case scenario for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Worst case for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nope--only Berkshire County is Albany's. I'm in BOX's northwesternmost zone--Western Franklin. You're Litchfield county (Albany), right? Ah, well then you know what it's like to be on the edge of a CWA. I'm actually pretty darn close to 3 different CWA's. But yeah, I'm in the southernmost section of the ALB CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Oh boy..A NYC landfall or LI landfall is now imminent... Worst case scenario for all of us. Most are in C NJ... please stop lying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Puts Edison right in the thick of it...pretty scary run for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It has landfall in central NJ. That would appear to be within the NHC cone... They'll be shifting the white part of that cone north. I'm highly doubting NE NC and SE VA should be more in the "zone" of potential track then say west central LI at this stage. Doesn't matter anyway, but it's time to shift. As thought the 12z provided some clarity and once again the Euro came back NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This thread is funny. Everyone wishing maximum destruction. A Dr Phil study right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 at this point we gotta ride the KFS been accurate for a while on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol....euro sne debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Worst case for nyc Yes, I feel really bad for all of you guys down in NJ, LI, NYC etc. Hope you all pull through this okay. Off to buy supplies...what's left of them. Batteries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Maybe the thinking here on this forum, but not overall. I'm not getting into the NHC discussion other than to say I'm not buying that their cone was intending to show a low passing into NJ...they were well south and are going to have to move the cone well north at 2 or 5pm. I also think when you look at the totality of the last several days there is a definitive move of all the models moving slightly NE in general. There's still a decent chance this swings through LI, JMHO. 70W seems to be the dividing line for the NJ coast. I think if it gets east of there, the LI landfall idea is more likely. If it stays west, it should be a NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where does it head after landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Puts Edison right in the thick of it...pretty scary run for all of us Yep. That run is catastrophic for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thanks tough to tell on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Puts Edison right in the thick of it...pretty scary run for all of us A few miles north or south is not going to matter to Phil, NY or NJ you are all in a bad position for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro also makes a much wider turn. Far more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thanks Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 phil does it start moving WSW around hr 72 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Worst case for nyc No Deleware is worse case for NYC. All it needs is a small shift north now for the surge to miss NYC. Winds a hit no matter what. It won't have much of a core. BOS will have the same windspeeds as NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I the only person from sne that would have real surge issues and be evacuated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A few miles north or south is not going to matter to Phil, NY or NJ you are all in a bad position for this one Yeah i should elaborate more...it means nothing to my area if its acy or sandy hook...im screwed either way..but euro track verbatim would give kevin more of a impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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