Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WAY further east at 48. It's out at 70 this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro will be north me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apparently y'all need a little lesson in how the "twitters" are used. LOl yea OK We're avoiding confusing switch from tropical to non-tropical warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thru 48 the Euro is notably east of the 0z. It's also not exhibiting the same tug west looking at it...starting to, but it's obviously allowing it "out" a bit more first. Yeah just saw 48...42hr was fairly close to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like it may be a little north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WAY further east at 48. It's out at 70 this time. It rode 70W for a bit on 00z, but it's definitely taking longer to hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I figured if the NHC was going to issue the track forecasts throughout they would maintain hurricane warnings even if from a scientific standpoint, it was solidly extratropical. That would have made sense. Their logic is flawed regardless: they would have never had to switch headlines in the middle of the storm. NHC is long known for continuity, and could have easily reclassified the storm post-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro will be north me thinks In that 30-42 hour range it totally lost the tug west...can see it in the isobars this run vs last. It's way out east. Not as extreme as the others...but it's interesting. By 54 hours it's hundreds of miles east of the h66 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like the consistent Euro has lost some consistency over the last 3 runs.. ? Are we 'too close in' and therefore, out of its wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We were thinking this would happen. I wonder if it will be near NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I dunno - I got some red flag beefs with this thing... -- When was it determined that models were "really good" at handling phasing scenarios ? Moreover, the answer to that question - being obviously not yet - should include consideration presently. -- Perhaps related to the point above, the fact that we are only 48-60 hours from that real interplay of streams and you have (granted) less reliable runs not tucking this into the MA so abruptly, yet these runs actually make more intuitive sense here... So which is it? Do you go with the more reliable runs that don't look very Meteorologically sound, or do you go with the less reliable cluster that do? This is an intense scenario over all - it kind of reminds me of a microcosm (timing-wise) of a middle range phased scenario, just packed into a 12-24 hour period; how many times have we seen a given middle range wet dream of a phased big come into nearer terms more sheared. How are you determining what runs don't look meteorologically sound?? Anomalous, sure, but claiming it doesn't look meteorologically sound just because it's unprecedented is a little narrow-minded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We were thinking this would happen. I wonder if it will be near NYC? Probably C NJ.. south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I just went in there and there is no mention of it? they usually are, today they weren't (lol) sorry man , weird day to not have the play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 so much for the euro being consistent wow east of 0z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro...wow Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We were thinking this would happen. I wonder if it will be near NYC? Not sure it really matters what it shows right now Kev. It's way north at 60 vs the 72 of last night. The cone moved north particularly if you totally discount the NAM. Landfall between block and CNJ would be my "cone" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 After examining a number of text products for such locations as BLM, FRG, and JFK for the 12z GFS, the lowest figure I found was just under 952 mb. The higher pressure is probably the right one. Thanks Don, I found the same thing. Upper 1940s make sense given its just offshore at hr 60. I wonder why Maue's maps show 936. Oh well.. probably good 936 would be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just s of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ctrl NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 phil where is the damn euro going, i hate having 5 people say the play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 C NJ at 66hr? I have a lot of isobars in the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro...wow Okay me FTL on not worrying about the winds. Euro fans FTL for not seeing what was a model trend at 12z when you back away the American stuff. That NHC cone has to come way north pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just s of NYC You may have better graphics tough to tell. Fist pumps with Dave at the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How strong is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 C NJ at 66hr? I have a lot of isobars in the way... Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I mean... Thinking has been CNJ for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I mean... Thinking has been CNJ for days. Both the GFS and the Euro now close in agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Someone tell Kevin it looks like the JMA went through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How strong is it? I have it a 956mb or less on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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