Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Messenger will be RAP ing to us all day tomorrow. No more RUC updates NAH, this storm is going to do it's own thing and the RUC is utterly useless out in the ocean anyway. Euro is about to rule the roost anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The tweet specifically says they're going with non-tropical warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol, you're in the ALB CWA right? I doubt they'll be giving us HWW. Nope--only Berkshire County is Albany's. I'm in BOX's northwesternmost zone--Western Franklin. You're Litchfield county (Albany), right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 rather impressive divergence increasing over Sandy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The tweet specifically says they're going with non-tropical warnings. Here at the conference that sound like what they are doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAH, this storm is going to do it's own thing and the RUC is utterly useless out in the ocean anyway. Euro is about to rule the roost anyway. There is no more RUC bro, you can bury your old friend, it is now RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where did you see that Phil? I haven't seen that on NWS Chat yet. Yeah now I'm reading both things...not sure. Probably should have waited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The tweet specifically says they're going with non-tropical warnings. After searching for the tweet, you're right. For those who are interested, the tweet can be found at: https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/262236535968104449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That deeper convection previously associated with Sandy's core really seems to have taken off to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 After searching for the tweet, you're right. For those who are interested, the tweet can be found at: https://twitter.com/...236535968104449 Funny that is not how I interpret that discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 guys it seems pretty straightforward that they are avoiding the confusing switch from tropical to non tropical warnings later. i.e they will stay tropical "nhc warnings taken more seriously" phil was right what am i missing it's clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Funny that is not how I interpret that discussion Me neither.. He admits that NHC warnings are taken 'more seriously' so why would they up and switch to the warnings taken 'less seriously'? It doesnt make any sense.. Also, he states hes 'avoiding the confusing switch to Non Tropical warnings....'. I dont know how else to take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Me neither.. He admits that NHC warnings are taken 'more seriously' so why would they up and switch to the warnings taken 'less seriously'? It doesnt make any sense.. Also, he states hes 'avoiding the confusing switch to Non Tropical warnings....'. I dont know how else to take that! no Michael Meadows said that NHC warnings are taken serious, the director said we are avoiding the switch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Me neither.. He admits that NHC warnings are taken 'more seriously' so why would they up and switch to the warnings taken 'less seriously'? It doesnt make any sense.. Also, he states hes 'avoiding the confusing switch to Non Tropical warnings....'. I dont know how else to take that! The call was made so they don't issue hurricane watches now... only to have to take them down once the storm becomes extratropical. That's what he was saying in that tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well... EURO should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Me neither.. He admits that NHC warnings are taken 'more seriously' so why would they up and switch to the warnings taken 'less seriously'? It doesnt make any sense.. Also, he states hes 'avoiding the confusing switch to Non Tropical warnings....'. I dont know how else to take that! That language was actually the tweet to which he was responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 271746 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/17:24:30Z B. 29 deg 38 min N 075 deg 35 min W C. 850 mb 1082 m D. 48 kt E. 121 deg 39 nm F. 218 deg 67 kt G. 121 deg 44 nm H. 962 mb I. 17 C / 1524 m J. 20 C / 1527 m K. 19 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF302 1518A SANDY OB 17 CCA MAX FL WIND 72 KT SW QUAD 16:13:00Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C 124 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR RAGGED TSTMS NW ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Imagine the eye moving over BDR and Joe posting during it. "Just cleared out...warm and sunny with a light breeze. Pulling out the oysters as I type. +15 on the day. BSE2 rolls on" That sounds wonderful, however we are looking at a catastrophic surge here so that wont happen. This is truly the endless summer, disgusting out, oil burners sitting dormant all fall, unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apparently y'all need a little lesson in how the "twitters" are used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 its pretty clear he means no NHC warnings I dont know what you guys are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That language was actually the tweet to which he was responding. The person making that tweet had copied himself on the tweet. Yup. Think of it like this Other person: Why aren't there hurricane warnings issued for the coast? NHC warnings are taken more seriously. Knabb: "The NHC is not issuing any more watches/warnings to avoid the confusing switch to non-tropical warnings that would have to follow later" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro...smidge east through 24 or so. Doesn't mean much yet very close. "structure" differences are probably somewhat notable though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nyc thread usually has the best euro PBP. it runs at 145pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The call was made so they don't issue hurricane watches now... only to have to take them down once the storm becomes extratropical. That's what he was saying in that tweet. Whoops. My bad.. . That sounds like a valid point, but still begs the question about initial preparedness relative to non tropical warnings, etc, as youve been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yup. Think of it like this Other person: Why aren't there hurricane warnings issued for the coast? NHC warnings are taken more seriously. Knabb: "The NHC is not issuing any more watches/warnings to avoid the confusing switch to non-tropical warnings that would have to follow later" so instead of having confusion we settle for this being taken less serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nyc thread usually has the best euro PBP. it runs at 145pm I just went in there and there is no mention of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I figured if the NHC was going to issue the track forecasts throughout they would maintain hurricane warnings even if from a scientific standpoint, it was solidly extratropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I dunno - I got some red flag beefs with this thing... -- When was it determined that models were "really good" at handling phasing scenarios ? Moreover, the answer to that question - being obviously not yet - should include consideration presently. -- Perhaps related to the point above, the fact that we are only 48-60 hours from that real interplay of streams and you have (granted) less reliable runs not tucking this into the MA so abruptly, yet these runs actually make more intuitive sense here... So which is it? Do you go with the more reliable runs that don't look very Meteorologically sound, or do you go with the less reliable cluster that do? This is an intense scenario over all - it kind of reminds me of a microcosm (timing-wise) of a middle range phased scenario, just packed into a 12-24 hour period; how many times have we seen a given middle range wet dream of a phased big come into nearer terms more sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thru 48 the Euro is notably east of the 0z. It's also not exhibiting the same tug west looking at it...starting to, but it's obviously allowing it "out" a bit more first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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