Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not sure what to expect. While a pure tropical system landfalling near Delaware Bay would be less catastrophic this far north, the extratrop/hybrid factor clouds the issue. ScottN, will flights be allowed into Boston Sunday? Fear for aircraft sequestration remains but if the aircraft in question is heading out that night it could happen. In any case, NYC is in for the storm of most of the folks on this bb's life. I am thinking like this , think back to 91, increase the wind speeds, increase the seas, fetch, surge, rainfall and power issues. Duration should be less or near. If we get any clearing we will max out potential in mixing, that is the scary part. Also folks inland like several have mentioned could be saying ah typical noreaster as the wind screams at 85 knots 1k off the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 11z 957 mb vs. 0Z Euro 968 mb for 12z Sat 6z NAM 980 mb for 12z Sat 0Z GFS 972 mb for 12z Sat 0Z NOGAPS 980 mb for 12z Sat Anyone have thoughts on the significantly lower pressure (dropped >10mb in 7 hours) compared to models, and what impact this may have on track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am thinking like this , think back to 91, increase the wind speeds, increase the seas, fetch, surge, rainfall and power issues. Duration should be less or near. If we get any clearing we will max out potential in mixing, that is the scary part. Also folks inland like several have mentioned could be saying ah typical noreaster as the wind screams at 85 knots 1k off the ground Any sort of dry slotting rotating up around the storm from SSW to NNE WILL increase the the vertical momentum transfer. This is where track I think will be critical for one thing. I also think the models might be underdoing the dry slot potential to the southeast of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Jerry, I think BOS will be ok Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If we don't see then storm start to phase until 70W then that would seem to indicate a further north landfall right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Jerry, I think BOS will be ok Sunday. Thanks Buddy! Now the next dillema is for the crew I usually travel with coming to my area Monday for a review. Good luck with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone else a little shocked this thing dropped almost 15mb overnight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone else a little shocked this thing dropped almost 15mb overnight?? 11z 957 mb vs. 0Z Euro 968 mb for 12z Sat 6z NAM 980 mb for 12z Sat 0Z GFS 972 mb for 12z Sat 0Z NOGAPS 980 mb for 12z Sat Anyone have thoughts on the significantly lower pressure (dropped >10mb in 7 hours) compared to models, and what impact this may have on track? It not only bombed out in the past 12 hours, but it's also significantly lower than progged by the models I listed above. Running all the other threads, haven't found an answer to this, nor whether this is due to tropical strengthening with decreased shear vs. interaction with the trough. Or more importantly how this impacts track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It not only bombed out in the past 12 hours, but it's also significantly lower than progged by the models I listed above. Running all the other threads, haven't found an answer to this, nor whether this is due to tropical strengthening with decreased shear vs. interaction with the trough. Or more importantly how this impacts track. I think it's both... there's a great outflow channel to the north... and the storm's inner core as tightened up and become a bit more warm core... meaning it's able to feed off the warmer SSTs better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 000 URNT12 KWBC 271320 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/12:52:53Z B. 28 deg 47 min N 076 deg 27 min W C. NA D. 62 kt E. 195 deg 55 nm F. 312 deg 68 kt G. 217 deg 14 nm H. 962 mb I. 13 C / 3668 m J. 13 C / 3652 K. 8 / NA L. SPIRAL BANDING M. NA N. 1234 / NA O. 1/ 1 P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 29 MAX FL WIND 68 KT SW QUAD 12:49:37Z MAX FL TEMP 14 C 217 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR SONDE SPLASHED WITH WINDS 025/16 KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone else a little shocked this thing dropped almost 15mb overnight?? Yup, that's signifigant enough for me to make sure all my gas cans are full no matter what the projected track is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Mandatory evacs now for fire island. Sandymonium out here now man it's busy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm absolutely SHOCKED the NHC will not be issuing watches/warnings. What a STUPID decision. Now we'll have a hodgepodge of watches and warnings from local offices. To make matters even worse... we'll likely be blanketed in a high wind warning which is no different then what we see 5 or 6 times a winter :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm absolutely SHOCKED the NHC will not be issuing watches/warnings. What a STUPID decision. Now we'll have a hodgepodge of watches and warnings from local offices. To make matters even worse... we'll likely be blanketed in a high wind warning which is no different then what we see 5 or 6 times a winter No kidding. And decided to continue tropical products up to VA border, making it even more confusing. It's like they're trying to have it both ways: maintain it as a tropical entity until landfall but issue non-tropical products. Pressure drop is impressive, probably a result of tightening core, but likely not got to have an effect on winds. Seems we'll stay pretty steady somewhere b/w 70-80 mph through landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS MOS has a sustained 46 knot wind at GON at 00z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No kidding. And decided to continue tropical products up to VA border, making it even more confusing. It's like they're trying to have it both ways: maintain it as a tropical entity until landfall but issue non-tropical products. Pressure drop is impressive, probably a result of tightening core, but likely not got to have an effect on winds. Seems we'll stay pretty steady somewhere b/w 70-80 mph through landfall. If we start dipping much more... say sub 950... winds probably will come up because the core is forecast to tighten and become more warm core and symmetrical. I wouldn't be shocked to see the storm regain cat 2 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The public is clueless, not that thats news or anything. NBC Ct is posting emails from viewers.. Sample: 'Is this going to be mostly rain or snow?' ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm absolutely SHOCKED the NHC will not be issuing watches/warnings. What a STUPID decision. Now we'll have a hodgepodge of watches and warnings from local offices. To make matters even worse... we'll likely be blanketed in a high wind warning which is no different then what we see 5 or 6 times a winter :axe: Ryan do not know if you saw my posts this AM, in my small world the downgrade this AM caused a false sense of relief, shocked the impact that made. That being said I think everyone is aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The public is clueless, not that thats news or anything. NBC Ct is posting emails from viewers.. Sample: 'Is this going to be mostly rain or snow?' ! Seriously, so many people at work were just wondering about snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ryan do not know if you saw my posts this AM, in my small world the downgrade this AM caused a false sense of relief, shocked the impact that made. That being said I think everyone is aware. I did... at least it's been reupgraded. After Irene and October snowstorm I think the state is much better prepared. I'm hoping that we don't look at storms through the prism of Irene... this could be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ekster says ridiculous winds all the way up into Centeal Maine. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm absolutely SHOCKED the NHC will not be issuing watches/warnings. What a STUPID decision. Now we'll have a hodgepodge of watches and warnings from local offices. To make matters even worse... we'll likely be blanketed in a high wind warning which is no different then what we see 5 or 6 times a winter I'm scratching my head too on this one. A definite reassessment of NOAA strategy in making this a "Weather Ready Nation" I think is in order. An interesting conundrum for sure..sort of like subtropical systems a "grey area" we couldn't deny their existence so we started naming them. IMO this storm is a grey area, too and needs to be addressed Ryan do not know if you saw my posts this AM, in my small world the downgrade this AM caused a false sense of relief, shocked the impact that made. That being said I think everyone is aware. They very might be;hopefully they are but I think when people hear High Wind Watch coastal flood watch etc the mentality does change to "OH we're getting a Nor'easter..I can deal with this." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ekster says ridiculous winds all the way up into Centeal Maine. Enjoy As he would say, there is a big front end dump of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ekster says ridiculous winds all the way up into Centeal Maine. Enjoy Yeah at the coast. Coastal winds will be much stronger the further north you go, away from any inland inversion and east of coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 As he would say, there is a big front end dump of winds. Any chance you can explain the coastal front thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I did... at least it's been reupgraded. After Irene and October snowstorm I think the state is much better prepared. I'm hoping that we don't look at storms through the prism of Irene... this could be much worse. Unfortunately for the area that presently (I know this could change) looks to have the most devastating impact (NYC / northern NJ / LI), the lay public is pretty skeptical. On this board we all appreciate how this is fundamentally different from Irene, but I'm not sure the public gets it and is over-reacting to TS vs. Cat 1. Will be interesting to see if Bloomberg makes a call to evacuate parts of Manhattan again if a central/northern NJ track happens. As you said, this is all made so much worse by NHC leaving it up to local WFOs north of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm scratching my head too on this one. A definite reassessment of NOAA strategy in making this a "Weather Ready Nation" I think is in order. An interesting conundrum for sure..sort of like subtropical systems a "grey area" we couldn't deny their existence so we started naming them. IMO this storm is a grey area, too and needs to be addressed They very might be;hopefully they are but I think when people hear High Wind Watch coastal flood watch etc the mentality does change to "OH we're getting a Nor'easter..I can deal with this." Grey area or not - there are times when you put aside rules and place public safety first. Just like NWS offices issuing large tornado warnings for land falling hurricanes. Is it a good idea? That can be debated. If this storm is of the intensity that many suspect it will be then there should be complete coordination and continuity with products and calls to action. Plain and simple - in my opinion. Unfortunately, with our McDonald drive-through public mentality, you have to make everything plain and simple to understand. People hear key words - everything else is background noise to them. We all knew that what happened with Irene would hurt the process down the road. Just didn't think it would be so soon. If NHC does drop this ball then I think it could fundamentally change the agency. Questions will be raised. Hopefully, in the end, all of this is handled properly. We will see what happens. It is going to be a stressful forecast for all agencies involved - I am sure each agency is feeling the pressure. I don't envy any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Any chance you can explain the coastal front thing? Some of the surface pressure fields actually show some CAD for a time...makes sense with big HP and autumn air mass in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Boy---looks like the NAM's coming in west...... Moving NNW off SC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.