Sandy Impacts for ENY and WNE

[Wx4cast]

Thought on Sandy for Eastern NY and Western New England:

Quiet through Sunday then we're tracking Sandy's potential impacts.

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Through Sunday we'll see pesky clouds persist but we'll also see some sun too. Temperatures will be fairly mild over the weekend especially at night.

Now for Sandy:

We continue to see a cluster of tracks moving the storm across the NJ Coast into the NYC area during Monday night/Tuesday Morning. This turn WEST is critical as to how close it tracks to the Capital Region. Right now we will be on the Northern Fringe of the storm, however across the coast High Winds, perhaps to hurricane force are likely along with storm surge flooding, beach erosion and widespread power outages expected. There will be tremendous wave action with widespread damage.

For Upstate NY/Western New England...The winds will pick up here from the E-NE late Monday morning with our strongest winds probably Monday night into Tuesday. Right now we could easily see winds gusting over 50mph, especially over the higher terrain and in the Mohawk Valley Monday night and by Tuesday morning as the winds turn SSE this means strong winds for all. On Tuesday very strong gusts are possible especially over the higher terrain and in north-south oriented valleys, like the Hudson, Connecticut, Housatonic and Battenkill river valleys.This will be enough to cause some power outages.

As for rainfall..the heaviest rains right now are expected to be to our south though bands of heavy rains could clip the Berkshires and Catskills. Right now rainfall does not look to be like on the scale of Irene but the potential for some flooding does exist. Preliminary estimates are from 2-4" in the higher spots of the Catskills...esp the Southern Catskills. with 1-3" for the Berkshires and extreme Southern Vermont. As you approach the Hudson Valley and to points north...lesser amounts will fall..especially north of Saratoga. This is based on the current data.

The worst flooding potential with the heaviest rains are forecast to occur to the SOUTH of the low's track especially over NJ and Pennsylvania where rainfall amounts will exceed 8". This storm will slowly weaken over the Northeast during Wednesday through Friday, so basically it may be around most of the week with blustery winds, clouds and lingering showers.

By the way as for snow....the Mountains of West Virginia could pickup a historic amount of snow...high spots over 12"

KEEP THIS IN MIND for the next 48 hours....any shift to the south...is BETTER for us...and a shift to the NORTH would mean more rain and wind...

We will keep you posted. Best advice...Be prepared, there is still plenty of time.

[West Point, NY]

Andy, I'm up around 1K down here in Monroe. Pretty much near the highest elevation between me and the coast. The GFS had a strip of 120+ mph jet going across SW CT extending west over my head. Taken verbatim, how much of that translates down at my elevation and exposure. Thanks........

[CNYWeather]

Thanks for that Andy.

I'm down at only 560ft and smack dab in the center of Oneida County.

From the look of the 8am precip forecast, I'm looking at more of a wind even than rain event.

We'll see how that updates by tomorrow.

[phoenixny]

This subforum is pretty quiet for central NY. Any thoughts for CNY impacts from LEK and Wx4cast? Center may come ashore closer to NYC by tomorrow's models. Th

[Wx4cast]

This subforum is pretty quiet for central NY. Any thoughts for CNY impacts from LEK and Wx4cast? Center may come ashore closer to NYC by tomorrow's models. Th

Here's what I posted on the station webpage tonight:

Sunday will be another mostly cloudy day. A cold front just to our west may get close enough to cause a shower or two over the Adirondacks but most of us will stay dry.

Of course we are watching Hurricane Sandy. During Sunday the center of the large but minimal hurricane will be passing between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina while initially moving NE or NNE. It will begin a turn to the north during Sunday night and on Monday the storm will make another turn towards the NW or WNW while beginning its metamorphosis into a very intense and powerful storm. By late Monday night it is expected to cross the coast of NJ and continue to track across the state to northern Pennsylvania by late Tuesday and begin to slowly weaken.

The reason for this unusual (but not unprecedented) track is because of two features either side of this storm: a very strong and large high pressure system to its northeast and east preventing it from taking a track out to sea; to it its west a very strong jet stream disturbance and storm aloft. This latter feature will draw the storm towards it. The infusion of the jet stream energy and the very cold air associated with it combining with the very warm and moist air of Sandy will cause the "intransification" of Sandy into an intense and powerful hybrid storm – that is the "new" storm will have both tropical and non-tropical features.

The storm will be extremely large in size with high winds swirling around it. On the coast widespread storm tides are expected to occur from Sunday into Monday with possible historic tidal flooding in places from NJ through NYC, to Long Island's North and South shores and across the Southern New England Coast, too.

It's all about the track as to how this storm will impact the area:

IMPACTS

WIND: With the center moving in a more or less east to west direction and with the center passing south of Albany the region will be on the WINDY side of the storm so strong winds are likely during Monday into early Tuesday. Because of this the area is under a HIGH WIND WATCH for at least Monday. It looks like N-NE winds will increase to 25-45mph and by later Monday gust to 60 mph or more across the valleys and 70 mph or higher over the higher elevations. During Monday night into very early Tuesday morning the winds are forecast to become ESE-SE. Winds of this strength can and will topple trees and snap power lines so we anticipate the potential for widespread power outages.

RAIN: The heavy flood producing rains will be to the south of the storms track thus across NJ and PA is where the greatest threat for major and severe flooding will occur.

This said we will see rain here too.

The strong easterly flow will be moisture laden so periods of heavy rain will be develop over us. The rain should start to the south of Albany by early Monday morning with everyone seeing rain by afternoon through Monday night.

Because of the strong easterly winds the moist air will undergo increased lift across the east facing slopes of the Greens, Berkshires and Catskills. These areas will see the highest rainfall amounts: 2-4 inches with local 6 " amounts. Lower elevations could see anywhere from 3/4" to locally 2". These amounts are no where near what Irene dumped on the region a little more than a year ago.

Nonetheless the threat for some flooding of smaller streams and rivers could occur so a FLOOD WATCH is in effect for the region (except for Fulton, Hamilton and Herkimer counties) for Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

In addition there will be flooding along the Hudson from Albany and points south due to tidal/storm surge down south.

By late Tuesday morning the brunt of the storm will be passing by the winds will abate and the rain will become more showery in nature.

For Wednesday through Friday the weakening storm will move from Pennsylvania to Quebec so our weather will remain unsettled with blustery gusty winds clouds and showers too.

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Tonight: Mostly cloudy...lows 45-50

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Chance for a shower across the Adirondacks. Highs 54-59

Sunday Night: Cloudy freshening N-NE winds with showers late south of Albany. Lows 46-52

MONDAY: STORMY with high winds and periods of heavy rain. HIGHS 54-59

[Couchsachraga]

Andy,

Thank you VERY much for taking the time to post in the NY forum - we appreciate it! I hope you are able to get at least a little rest.