November 2012 Forecast Contest, Tropics

[Mallow]

You know the dril...

November

S/C/M

Season

S/C/M

[wxmx]

Nov

1/0/0

Season

20/10/1

[metalicwx366]

1/1/0

20/11/1

[OHweather]

0/0/0

19/10/1

[Inudaw]

0.5/0/0

19.5/10/1

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

1/0/0

20/10/1

[Roger Smith]

2/1/0

22/11/1

Sandy should count as about four majors but I guess is stuck at cat-2 until any sort of reanalysis of Cuba landfall.

My 22 is based on a December TS, if the contest is called on Nov 30 make that 21/11/1.

[phil882]

November:

0/0/0

Total:

19/10/1

[Ellinwood]

November

0/0/0

Season

19/10/1

[CandymanColumbusGA]

November:

.4/0/0

Season:

19.4/10/1

[Mallow]

November

1.1/0.2/0

Season

20.1/10.2/1

[LakeEffectKing]

November:

0/0/0

Total:

19/10/1

[GaWx]

Nov.: 0/0/0

Season: 19/10/1

[LakeEffectKing]

Bump

[GaWx]

 Bump to see if an overall 2012 seasonal winner was ever determined since I was an active participant. Or will it just be combined with 2013 for a 2012-3 combined contest? Or is 2012 a dead contest? I'd do the 2012 calculations, myself, but it is too complicated/I wouldn't even know how to do it lol.

 Well, onward to 2013, regardless.

[Mallow]

 Bump to see if an overall 2012 seasonal winner was ever determined since I was an active participant. Or will it just be combined with 2013 for a 2012-3 combined contest? Or is 2012 a dead contest? I'd do the 2012 calculations, myself, but it is too complicated/I wouldn't even know how to do it lol.

 Well, onward to 2013, regardless.

 

There's an overall seasonal winner, I just haven't calculated it yet.

 

Ugh, I'm the worst.

[GaWx]

There's an overall seasonal winner, I just haven't calculated it yet.

 

Ugh, I'm the worst.

 

 Well, look at the bright side. I doubt that this particular contest would've even existed without you. We may not know the results til we're out of the +AMO, but we'll know eventually. ;)

[Roger Smith]

For the 2011 season, I did an alternative scoring that had almost the same order of finish as the eventual official scoring, but the race was quite close that time.

 

For 2012, I have had a look through the monthly threads, and have estimated these scores using rules that won't be vastly different from the official scoring (if we ever see that).

 

Full scoring data below:

Note: 2 storms occurred in May before contest began, the count was 2,0,0 before forecasts made. 

 

Actual values

 

The season had 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes as shown in the table. After the season ended and forecasters were finished updating, Sandy was upgraded to a major hurricane. After looking at scores from two different assumptions about that, I found it made no difference to the order of finish, but most scores were higher if we accepted Sandy as a major. To simplify I have only reported those scores and the Nov 1 revised seasonals are not scored (they would probably be worth no more than 1 per cent) as all of them were based on the alternate assumption.

 

Seasonal totals

 

The initial seasonal forecast counts for 60%, the July 1 update for 20% then 10% for the August 1 update, 6% for the Sept 1 update and 4% for the Oct 1 update. Scores are calculated from these base numbers, minus half the error points accumulated in an error-squared system. Example, you are off by 2,2,4 which when squared gives 4,4,16 ... that's a total of 24, half of which is 12. Your initial forecast score is 60-12 or 48. Second month (July) seasonal forecast drops one quarter of accumulated error square points from 20. August drops one-eighth of total error squares, Sept and Oct drop one-sixteenth each. By trial and error I found that only really off-track forecasts scored negative in this system but negative became zero.

 

A few "new" entrants starting during the contest instead of June 1st would start from values indicated below, e.g., starting Aug 1, you start from 30 points maximum, and on Sept 1, you start from 20 points, then following months entered would revert to the same system as other entrants. Those were the only months in which new entrants appeared.. Seasonal scores provided late were penalized 10% per day after these other calculations. Seasonal updates not provided in actual entries are assumed to be the previous month's entry carried on. Seasonal updates missed by unsubmitted forecasts are assumed to be the same as previous month but penalized by half the possible points for non-entry (this applies to inactive as well as occasional forecasters). The official scoring may be less lenient to missing seasonal updates. The ^ symbol beside a seasonal score indicates that it is a carried-over value scoring 50% of the points available.

 

Monthly totals

 

The monthly base values (7,10,30,35,17,1) are a blend of climatology and this season's actual frequency, mainly climatology, and the maximum values are reduced in the same way as seasonal values from maximum possible scores, except by one point per error-square score, no fractions used. These scores are then reduced by 10% per late day where applicable. Negative scores are entered as zero.

 

Missing monthly entries score zero whatever the logic of the seasonal forecast applied to the missing data.

 

 

Actuals (during contest) __ 19,10,1 ________________________ 2,1,0 __ 0,0,0 __ 8,5,0 __ 2,2,1 __ 5,2,0 __ 0,0,0

Actuals (final adjusted) ____ 19,10,2 ________________________ 2,1,0 __ 0,0,0 __ 8,5,0 __ 2,2,1 __ 5,2,1 __ 0,0,0

 

_______________ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT (seasonal)

Max scores ______ 60 ___ 20 ___ 10 _____ 6 _____ 4 __ __ ___ 100

Max scores if new -- -- ___ 50 ___ 30 __ 20 __ (applies to entrants who started in-season)

 

 

________________ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __NOV (monthly)

Max scores ________ 7 ___ 10 ___ 30 ____ 35 ____ 17 ___ 1 ___ 100

 

 

 ...  seasonal scores top row, monthly scores bottom row ...

 

Forecaster ______ JUN ____ JUL ____ AUG ____ SEP ___ OCT __ NOV __ TOTALS

 

Metalicwx366 ____ 54 ______ 17 ___  8.5 ____ 5.3 ____ 3.7 ___ _ ____ 88.5

............................ 6.0 ........ 4.0 ....... 13 ....... 24 ....... 12 ........ 0 ___ _ 59 ___ 147.5 ____ first overall and for seasonal

 

CandymanCSG ___ 54 ____  17 ____ 7.6 _____ 5.3 ___ 3.7 __ _ ____  87.6

............................ 4.6 ....... 7.0 ........ 0 ......... 33 ....... 7 ....... 0.8 ___ 52.4 __ 140

 

Ellinwood ______ 42.5 ____ 16.5 ____ 6.8 ____ 5.2 ____ 3.6 ___ _ ____ 74.6

............................. 6.1 ........8.8 ........8.9.......30.7 ........7.1 ...... 1 ____ 62.6 ___ 137.2

 

wxmx _________ 42.5 ____ 13.5 ____ 4.8 ____ 5.6 ____ 3.8 ___  _ ____ 70.2

............................. 5.0 .......5.0 .........16 ........31 ........ 8 ........ 0 _____ 65 ___135.2 ____ first for monthly (total)

 

Inudaw _________53 ___ 16.5 ___ 6.8 ___ 5.4 ___ 3.5 ____ _ ____86.2

............................ 6.8 ....... 1.4 ...... 0 ..... 24.8 ........ 6 .... 0.7 ___ 39.7 __  125.9

 

Roger Smith _____41 ____7.5 ___ 8.8 ___ 5.1 ___ 3.5 ___ _ ___ 65.9

............................ 6.0 ....... 0.0 ...... 21 ..... 15 ........ 16 .... 0 __ 58 ____ 123.9

 

Sitting Pretty ____ 50.5 __ 15.3 __  3.8^ __ 4.8 __ 1.4^ ___  _ __ 75.8

........................... 7 ........5 ........ -- ........31 ........... -- ....... -- ____ 43____ 118.8

 

OHWeather ____ 40.9 __ 14.7 ___ 5.6 ____ 5.9 __ 3.4 ___ _ ___ 70.5

............................. 5.0 .......5.0 .......0 ......30 .........7 ...... 1 ___ 48 _____ 118.5

 

Srain __________ 39 ___ 9.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 5.9 ___ 1.2 ____ _ ____ 60.4

............................ 2.0 ..... 9.0 ......11 ......29 .........0  ...... 0 ____ 51 ____ 111.4

 

weatherkid#27 __ 41 ___ 9.5 ____ 0 ____ 5.4 __ 3.4 ____ _ ____ 59.3

........................... 5.0 .......7.4 .......0 .......31 .........3 ...... 0 _____ 46.4 ___ 105.7

 

phil882 ________ 35 __ 9.8 ____3.8 ____ 5.1 __ 3.1 ___ _ ____ 56.8

........................... 4.6 .......9.0 .......0 .......34 ......... 0 ...... 1 ____ 48.6 ___ 105.4

 

Mallow ________ 30.2 ___ 7.2 ___ 0.4 ___ 4.0 ___ 3.9 ___ _ ___ 45.7

............................5.4 ...... 5.7 ......1.3 ...... 25.2 ...... 12.2 .... 1 ___50.8 ____ 96.5

 

jrcgrsc _________ 57.5 ___ 17 __ 4.7^ __  2.8^ __  1.8^ ____ _____ 83.8

........................... 5.7 ....... 2.0 ....... -- ......... -- .......... -- .... -- ...... __ 7.7__ 91.5

 

Lake Effect King _ 33.5 ___ 6.8 ___ 3.4 ___ 5.9 ___ 3.3 ____ _ ___ 52.9

............................. 5 .......... 8 ........ 0 ......22 ..........0 ..... 1 _____ 36___ 88.9

 

EdLizard ______ 32.3 ____ 0  ____ 0 ____ 2.4 ___ 2.7 _____ _____ 37.4

............................. 6 ......... 10 ........ 0 ..... 32.8 ...... 0 ...... 0 ____ 48.8 ___ 86.2

 

U_Thant _______ 15 ___ 6.8 ___ 2.3 ___ 4.8 ___ 2.8 ____ _ ___ 31.7

............................. 2 ..........5 ......... 4 ........ 34.5 ... 9 ... --  ____ 54.5____ 86.2

 

PSUBlizzicane07_ 34 ___ 3.5^ ___ 5.6 ___ 5.4 ___ 2.8 ____ _ __ 51.3

..............................5 ...........-- .........4 .........24 ........0 ........0 ___ 33 ___ 84.3

 

Riptide _________ 51.5 ___ 7.9^ ___ 7.9 ___ 2.5 ___ 1.5 ____ ____ 71.3

.............................. 7 ........ -- ......... 6 ......... -- ..........-- .........-- _____13____ 84.3

 

kab2791 _______ 47.0 ___ 15.3 ___ 3.8^___2.4^___1.4^____ _ __ 69.9

............................. 5 ...... 8 ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ______13 ______ 82.9

 

goobagooba ____55.5 __ 13.8 ____ 3.4 __ 2.2^ __ 1.2^ ___ _ ____  76.1

............................ 1 ......... 4 .......... -- .......... -- ....... -- .... -- ______ 5___ 81.1

 

GaWx _________ 23 ___ 1.5 _____ 0.8 ___ 4.4 ___ 2.7 ____ _ ___ 32.4

............................. 5 ........ 10 ........ 0 .........30.6 ...... 0 ..... 0.9 ___ 46.5  ___ 78.9

 

snowlover11 ____ 54.5 ___ 8.6 ___ 4.3 ___  2.7 ___ 1.6 ___  _ ___ 71.7

.............................6 .............-- .............. -- ............. -- ......... -- ........ -- __ 6 ___ 77.7

 

carley5 ________ 43 __ 9.8 ____ 4.9 __ 1.7^ __ 0.7^ ___  _ ____ 62.1

............................. 5 .........10 ......... 0 .......... -- .......... -- ....... -- ___ 15  __ 77.1

 

Thewxmann ____ 46.9 ___ 6.7^ ___ 6.7___2.2^___1.2^____ _ ____ 63.9

.......................... 6.3...... -- ....... 1.3 ...... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 7.6 ___ 71.5

 

ALHurricane ____ 49.5 ___ 7.4^ ___ 3.7^___2.3^___1.3^___ _ ____ 64.2

............................7 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ______ 7______ 71.2

 

Mike Ventrice ___ 44.0 ___ 12.0___ 3^___2^___1^___ _ ____ 62

............................ 6 ....... 0....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 6 ___ 68

 

andyhb ________ 47.0 ___ 6.8^ ___ 3.4^___2.2^___1.2^___ _ ____ 60.6

............................ 7 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ______ 7 _____ 67.6

 

PSUHazletonWx _48.0 ___ 7.0^ ___ 3.5^___2.3^___1.3^___ _ ___ 62.1

............................ 5 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 5 _____ 67.1

 

Wannabehippie__45.0 ___ 10.0 ___ 2.5^___1.8^___0.8^____ _ ___ 60.1

............................ 7 ........0 ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 7 ___ 67.1

 

boulderr _______ 39.0 ___ 9.5 ___ 2.4^___1.7^___0.7^____ _ ____ 53.3

............................ 6 ........ 5 ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 11 ____ 64.3

 

bkviking _______ 42.5 ___ 7.8 ___ 2.4^___1.7^___0.7^____ _ ____ 55.1

............................ 5 ........4 ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 9 ____ 64.1

 

B.Irving ________ 42.5 ___ 5.6^ ___ 2.8^___1.9^___0.9^____ _ ____ 53.7

............................ 6 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 6 _____ 59.7

 

hurricaneman ___ 41.0 ___ 5.3^ ___ 2.6^___1.8^___0.8^____ _ ____ 51.5

............................ 7 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 7 _____ 58.5

 

Jonathan Belles__ 35 ___ 7.5 ___ 3.8 ___ 1.4^ ___ 0.4^ ___  _ ____48.1

.......................... 6.8 ...... 3.3 ........ 0 ..........-- -- .......-- -- .......-- ___10.1 ___ 58.2

 

Jamie Ober _____ 35.5 ___ 3.5 ___ 0.9^ ___ 0.9^ ___ 0^ ___ _ ____ 41.8

.............................7 ........ 9 ........ -- ...... -- ....... -- ..... -- _____ 16 ____ 57.8

 

Seminole _______ - - - - ___ - - - - __ 21.5  ___  4.0 __ 2 ____ _ ____  27.5

............................-- ............ -- ........ 29.2 ......... -- ......... -- ..... -- ____ 29.2 ___ 56.7

 

Southern Snow __ 42.5 ___ 5.6^ ___ 2.8^___1.9^___0.9^____ _ ____ 53.7

.............................2 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 2 ______ 55.7

 

JConsor _______ -- -- ___ -- -- ___ -- -- ___ 11 ___ 3 ____ _ ____ 14

........................... -- -- .... -- -- ...... -- -- ....... 33 __ -- ...... -- ... ._____ 33 ___ 47

 

MyWeatherToday_ 29.5 ___ 9.8 ___ 2.4 ___ 1.7 ___ 0.7 _____ _ ____ 41

................................6 ...........0 ...........-- ........... -- ........ -- ..... -- __ 6 ____ 47

 

Mnweather _____ 31.0 ___ 3.8 ___ 0.9^___1.0^___0.0^____ _ ____ 36.7

.............................. 7 ........0 ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 7 ___ 43.7

 

Isohume _______ 27.5 ___ 1.9^ ___ 0.9^___1.0^___0.0^____ _ ____ 31.3

.............................. 4.2 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 4.2 ___ 35.5

 

SquatchinNY ___ 23.0 ___ 0.8^ ___ 0.4^___0.7^___0.0^____ _ ____ 24.9

.............................. 5 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 5 ___ 29.9

 

Pottercountywx __ 24.0 ___ 1.0^ ___ 0.5^___0.8^___0.0^____ _ ____ 26.3

............................... 2 ........ -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- ....... -- _____ 2 ___ 28.3

 

Amped _________ 8 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 _______ _ ____ 10

..............................4.5 ...... -- ........ -- ........ -- ....... -- .... --  __ 4.5 ___ 14.5

 

cpick79 ________ - - - - ___ - - - -__ 5 __ 2^ ___ 1^  ____ _ ____ 8

............................... - ........ -  ...... 4 ..... -- ........ -- ...... -- ____ 4 ____ 12

 

_______________________________________________________________________

 

^ for seasonal forecasts carried over in absence of new posts, scores reduced by 50%

[GaWx]

Unofficial official congrats to metalman!!! They're on their feet! Listen to that crowd! The great Rainstorm in 2006 and now the SE forum's great metalman in 2012! This is out of 45 contestants!

Also, an impressive 2nd place showing by the SE forum's CandyMan! Wow, the SE forum kicked some major butt here!