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Sandy Snow Chase(rs) - Major Snow Event


BeauDodson

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mcd2091.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0151 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN MD...WV...AND

PARTS OF WRN VA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 291851Z - 300045Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL

RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE

ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING

HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS

ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT.

DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ONGOING AS

OF MID AFTERNOON OWING TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME -- I.E. 20-30 KT

OF NWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CHARLESTON WV VWP WITHIN THE 0.5-1-KM

LAYER. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION

BETWEEN HURRICANE SANDY AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS

WILL YIELD A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC

COOLING WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER...WITH SNOWFALL RATES

INCREASING TO 1 IN/HR FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT AFTER 21Z. HIGHER

RATES TO 2 IN/HR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL

OCCUR AS ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY WAA AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER

THE FRINGES OF THE WARM CORE ACCOMPANYING BECOMING-POST-TROPICAL

CYCLONE SANDY...AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE.

NAM/RAPID-REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY 100-MB DEEP

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS...ATOP -2C TO

-4C ISOTHERMAL LAYERS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SUPPORTING THESE HEAVY

SNOW RATES.

AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE

APPROACH OF SANDY...0-1-KM MEAN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KT AFTER

21Z. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED NWLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS

REACHING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...STRONGEST OVER RIDGE TOPS.

VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/4 MILE WITH BLOWING

SNOW...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..COHEN.. 10/29/2012

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Yep. Thats about right. Not going to have to chase too far tomorrow. Which is good. Trees coming down across the roads is a concern. Will take a chainsaw just in case.

I did a google earth search for that camera last year, and the place I "think" it is is closer to about 1900 feet, IIRC. Nevertheless, I find it interesting that snow is falling in places where the 850's are supposed to be above 0.

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Beau and I just got back from driving around Blackwater Falls State Park. He took some video and a lot of pictures -- I'm sure he will be posting some soon. We measured 6.5" at about 5:20 pm. We're certainly over 7" now as is is coming down hard. Starting to lose some smaller limbs on trees. Temp is 31.8 degrees. Not much wind yet.

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My snowmobile partner and I were considering a drive down, the only worry was about how "Snowmobile Friendly" the location is. The area isnt a traditional spot for riding, so I assumed there were no trails... I guess at this point the major roads would probably be open to riding.

Anyhow, not happening... wife would kill me.

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