Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Impacts

[Cheeznado]

new video- wow.....

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/on-air/as-seen-on/Storm-Surge-in-Union-Beach-Captured-on-Home-Video_New-York.html

[WEATHER53]

new video- wow.....

http://www.nbcnewyor...o_New-York.html

Man.

Angry Ocean.

[famartin]

new video- wow.....

http://www.nbcnewyor...o_New-York.html

That was posted in the NYC forum thread a few weeks ago.

[HurricaneJosh]

new video- wow.....

http://www.nbcnewyor...o_New-York.html

I hadn't seen this before. Pretty awesome-- a really graphic look at storm surge in action.

[Ed Lizard]

I suspected the childhood house in Nassau Shores flooded when I heard surge in Massapequa had gotten beyond Merrick Road. The house was one block in from the bay and across the street from a canal. YouTube videos, one at Stillwater, about 6 streets over laterally, would tend to confirm 3 to 5 feet of salt water flooding plus basement/crawl space. I did notice, it appears wave action mechanical damage seemed to be confined to homes that fronted the bay itself.

I *think* flood insurance is probably mandatory for getting a mortgage in Nassau Shores. Video below probably already appeared somewhere in NYC subforum...

I have several YouTubes via sister's FB. She lives near Dallas, but has friends from the old days.

[yoda]

http://www.timesunio...ina-4067650.php

Cuomo says Sandy was worse than Katrina in SOME aspects

[Derecho!]

New NYT article on lack of evacuation for coastal NYC Nursing homes:

http://www.nytimes.c...anted=2&_r=1

So it basically blames the Bloomberg Administration, but also seems to blame Upton as well:

While the National Hurricane Center in Miami had warned of “historic urban flooding” in New York City, local National Weather Service officials issued contradictory public advisories on Friday and early Saturday that said there would be only “moderate flooding.”

The NYT links to a copy of a 546AM Upton Coastal hazard advisory as proof of this:

http://mesonet.agron...&e=201210270946

The key thing, though, (and this is completely missed by the NYT) is the advisory only covers out the MORNING High Tide on Monday. And the forecast numbers, IIRC, were pretty accurate for that tide.

So I think we may finally have an explanation for the famous "downplaying" Bloomberg press conference - somehow the morning tide surge prediction for Monday got translated into the MAXIMUM high tide for the entire storm within the Bloomberg administration along the way.

[DaculaWeather]

I noticed that during the event, many people were getting the tides and surge wrong. I was using the NOAA Tides and Currents page for my data, but I have no idea what others were using.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

[Derecho!]

I noticed that during the event, many people were getting the tides and surge wrong. I was using the NOAA Tides and Currents page for my data, but I have no idea what others were using.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

Well one problem is that people were confusing storm surge and storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) (heck, in my previous post I actually wasn't really clear about it.) One thing is people are so used to the Gulf of Mexico where there are hardly any tides and you hardly ever hear storm tide talked about.

[NorEaster27]

Downgrading the hurricane to non-tropical hours before landfall while increasing surface wind speeds is a bonehead move. Plain and simple.

[famartin]

Downgrading the hurricane to non-tropical hours before landfall while increasing surface wind speeds is a bonehead move. Plain and simple.

Making a storm extratropical is not a downgrade.

[DaculaWeather]

This is where we disagree. While extratropical isn't a downgrade, meteorologist look at this from a totally different point of view as a lay person. You can come up with all of your technological reasoning, it doesn't mean squat to a lay person. You don't wait until a few hours before landfall and change the designation to something that doesn't sound as serious as a hurricane.

[phlwx]

Changing the designation in the hour or two before landfall doesn't mean sh*t in the grand scheme of things. They would have had to evacuate in the midst of high winds and historic flooding if they left at 6 PM on Monday.

Good luck with that.

The whole warning designation thing is another story but what it was being called at the time of landfall doesn't matter at the height of a storm.

[Derecho!]

The designation of the storm controversy has apparently nothing to do with the Bloomberg Administration lack of concern Friday-Saturday, and my point in posting the link was not restarting that old debate.

As I mentioned I now have a strong suspicion that through mis-communication or simple stupidity, the Bloomberg Administration was provided the storm tide forecasts for the Monday AM tide and somehow thought those were the MAXIMUM tides expected for the whole storm, including Monday PM.

Another issue I'd have to go back to look at is that I distinctly remember that a wide variety of NYC tide forecast locations had no official designation of a flood above "Moderate" and even though Upton was forecasting really extreme tides officially they were categorized as "Moderate flooding" because there was no higher designation - however Sunday night/Monday morning, even though the forecast tide height hadn't risen that much, they realized how misleading this was and changed the tides to "major" and "record."

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The designation of the storm controversy has apparently nothing to do with the Bloomberg Administration lack of concern Friday-Saturday, and my point in posting the link was not restarting that old debate.

As I mentioned I now have a strong suspicion that through mis-communication or simple stupidity, the Bloomberg Administration was provided the storm tide forecasts for the Monday AM tide and somehow thought those were the MAXIMUM tides expected for the whole storm, including Monday PM.

Another issue I'd have to go back to look at is that I distinctly remember that a wide variety of NYC tide forecast locations had no official designation of a flood above "Moderate" and even though Upton was forecasting really extreme tides officially they were categorized as "Moderate flooding" because there was no higher designation - however Sunday night/Monday morning, even though the forecast tide height hadn't risen that much, they realized how misleading this was and changed the tides to "major" and "record."

Thanks for the insight into the Bloomberg debacle. All you have to do is go back into the NYC forum Sandy thread from that day to see how pissed and confused we were in regards to his comments during that speech. Though I will say his comments about this not being like a typical hurricane and thus producing a much slower increasing surge were and still are a mystery. Sandy's max surge did arrive in a very typical tropical manner right around the time of landfall.

[WEATHER53]

Downgrading the hurricane to non-tropical hours before landfall while increasing surface wind speeds is a bonehead move. Plain and simple.

Pretty much. Let's forget ALL of the techical aspect and classifications. Millions of people need advice about this storm, just keep it plain, pure and simple for them so that they can take the best action possible.

[isohume]

Making a storm extratropical is not a downgrade.

This is true. The media perhaps made it seem that way for some reason, but it's not a downgrade nor an indication of storm strength. The media should have parroted the message in the advisories of the storm likely strengthening, not that some classification was changed. The public and decision makers don't understand that and it could only add confusion.

[DaculaWeather]

The simple change from "hurricane" to "extratropical" is the issue for the lay person. You understand all of that, 99% of the people out there don't.

[wxmx]

The simple change from "hurricane" to "extratropical" is the issue for the lay person. You understand all of that, 99% of the people out there don't.

If they didn't change the designation, what would have changed? When NHC changed Sandy to extratropical (7pm EST), gale force winds were impinging the E coast with hurricane gusts and surge was already increasing, with 12+feet surge already reported in places...getting out in those conditions would have been foolish.

[famartin]

The simple change from "hurricane" to "extratropical" is the issue for the lay person. You understand all of that, 99% of the people out there don't.

Reclasifying it extratropical just before landfall had no impact... repeat, NO IMPACT... on anyone. All evacuations and precautions which were effective were already long completed by then.

[DaculaWeather]

You know as well as I do, people are going to wait if at all possible. I think all the talk about the transfer from the NHC to the local WFO's lead people to believe it wasn't going to be all that bad.

[wxmx]

You know as well as I do, people are going to wait if at all possible. I think all the talk about the transfer from the NHC to the local WFO's lead people to believe it wasn't going to be all that bad.

So you are saying it was a good thing they changed to extratropical because it prevented evacuation of people who waited to get out, which would have heightened the tragedy.

[isohume]

Reclasifying it extratropical just before landfall had no impact... repeat, NO IMPACT... on anyone. All evacuations and precautions which were effective were already long completed by then.

This all goes back to increased hand-holding wanted from the NWS these days. We can say all day, all week, long some storm is going to be bad and people need to take action, but some folks will never believe until they see the whites of the storm's eyes. It's human nature I suppose, but the majority responds which is all we can expect I imagine.

[DaculaWeather]

I think that all of the preliminary talk about handing the system off to the local people gave people some confidence that it wasn't going to be so bad.

This has nothing to do with technology or meteorology, it's all about psychology.

And please, don't get me wrong, everyone did an outstanding job.

[famartin]

I think that all of the preliminary talk about handing the system off to the local people gave people some confidence that it wasn't going to be so bad.

Now who's the one overestimating how much the average Joe is aware of in the meteorological world?

I don't know anyone who isn't either on the board, or a meteorologist, who had any idea about that sort of thing.

[isohume]

Now who's the one overestimating how much the average Joe is aware of in the meteorological world?

I don't know anyone who isn't either on the board, or a meteorologist, who had any idea about that sort of thing.

I was just going to mention this. I'd say 99% of the public was not aware of any "hand off" to local offices.

Folks just want someone to blame, even if no wrong was committed. It makes them feel superior to blame others.

[DaculaWeather]

This all goes back to increased hand-holding wanted from the NWS these days. We can say all day, all week, long some storm is going to be bad and people need to take action, but some folks will never believe until they see the whites of the storm's eyes. It's human nature I suppose, but the majority responds which is all we can expect I imagine.

Exactly. I think all the forecasters on the front lines did an outstanding job and my hat is off to you. I mean that.

I think the problem started at the top which caused confusion to a situation that needed order. I've watched storms for 57 years now and have to say this is the first time I remember such confusion.

[DaculaWeather]

What was issued, High Wind Warnings? Please

[famartin]

What was issued, High Wind Warnings? Please

Yes, because High Wind Warnings are so much more common around NYC than Hurricane Warnings. Please

[DaculaWeather]

And which one would strike more fear?