U_Thant Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 We has a similar issue down here during the 10/9/11 "no-name storm", a/k/a Invest 93L. It was a short-lived (~12-18 hours) mesocale feature that was embedded within a much larger area of gales that had been accounted for in warnings and forecasts for several days prior. Coordination occurred strictly between NHC and our office (via land line) and the decision was jointly agreed upon to not "change horses" (i.e. the warning/product suite) in mid stream, similar to what took place during Sandy. As the system briefly spun up, we upgraded our Gale Warning (34-49kt) to a Storm Warning (50kt+) for the near shore Atlantic, and for land areas (2, perhaps 3 coastal counties) our Wind Advisory (sustained 25-39 MPH) was changed to a High Wind Warning (sustained 40-73 MPH). There are still those mets in the private sector (you could probably guess a name or two and you'd be correct ) that swear up and down that it should have called a TC (in spite of the fact that is wasn't a TC) and that we should have had TS warnings up. A delicate balance has to be struck between scientific accuracy and maintaining public awareness while avoiding confusion. For instance, while calling a non-tropical or hybrid entity a hurricane, and issuing warnings as such would probably result in higher public awareness, so too would issuing tornado warnings for widespread continuous derecho events. How many times does public perception result in a statement like "Oh, the wind was much too strong for it not to have been a tornado" or "It was just a severe thunderstorm warning - I didn't think it would be that bad"? Adding to the potential for confusion is the fact that non-tropical watches and warnings were already in place - in both cases. Critics should consider Sandy's absolutely MASSIVE gale radii and ask themselves: 1) Over water, where would you have cut off the watches/warnings for Hurricane vs TS vs Gale? 2) Similarly, OVER LAND where would you have cut off Hurricane vs TS vs High Wind Warnings, or Wind Advisories? (or Blizzard Warnings?). Consider the low surface temperatures across many of the affected areas, and imagine what the public "response" would be from those who might have had temperatures in the 40s or upper 30s along with a TS Warning. And BTW, I can vouch 100 percent for Mike G's comments. I was on many of the conference calls during this event. There is this misperception that NHC acts unilaterally - when it's just not the case at all. Sometimes there is disagreement between NHC and an FO, and sometimes adjacent FO's have differing opinions, but these can be ironed out almost all the time - I have yet to see a case where an office was force-fed a watch or warning that they were 100 percent opposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 There are still those mets in the private sector (you could probably guess a name or two and you'd be correct ) that swear up and down that it should have called a TC (in spite of the fact that is wasn't a TC) and that we should have had TS warnings up. Yeah, you'll always have that and it doesn't matter which way you go on a borderline event. The backcasters will be out in in full force telling you how you got it wrong. I suppose it makes them look smart or right or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 This is getting ridiculous. I've never seen so much whining about there not being a hurricane warning before. Evacuations were ordered, and according to http://cjonline.com/news/2012-11-14/officials-use-various-methods-encourage-storm-evacuations , 90% in NJ's evacuation zones fled, while 50% in NYC's zones did so. The article goes on to mention "Florida State University professor Jay Baker, who has studied the subject for decades, said it isn’t unusual for one-third to half of all residents to defy mandatory evacuation orders, especially in places that haven’t been hit hard recently." So nothing unusual happened around NYC as far as residents' response to Sandy. Its just the way these things go. People don't listen. Hurricane warning or no, everyone knew a hurricane was coming up the coast and flooding was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Yeah, you'll always have that and it doesn't matter which way you go on a borderline event. The backcasters will be out in in full force telling you how you got it wrong. I suppose it makes them look smart or right or something. This is getting ridiculous. I've never seen so much whining about there not being a hurricane warning before. Evacuations were ordered, and according to http://cjonline.com/...orm-evacuations , 90% in NJ's evacuation zones fled, while 50% in NYC's zones did so. The article goes on to mention "Florida State University professor Jay Baker, who has studied the subject for decades, said it isn’t unusual for one-third to half of all residents to defy mandatory evacuation orders, especially in places that haven’t been hit hard recently." So nothing unusual happened around NYC as far as residents' response to Sandy. Its just the way these things go. People don't listen. Hurricane warning or no, everyone knew a hurricane was coming up the coast and flooding was expected. Look back at the lead up threads when they dropped H warnings, lots of well educated folks were aghast. We have to give so much credit to our local offices and Media Mets who hammered the surge aspects so hard, unfortunately most of the GP has been spoon fed since birth what a hurricane can do and really have no clue what ET means or represents. When your mission statement contains the words save lives and you make a decision based on textbook definitions, work load, transition warnings inland. Perhaps revaluation and an outside non Govt inquiry should take place. There is and always has been a disconnect between institutional awareness, thinking and actual GP perception. Bridging that gap is the key . Having so many different media, Govt outlets providing mixed messages was part of the problem. Depending on what source you heard you heard different ops, folks in CT and NJ were lucky, our Gov was consistent with the media for the most part although on Sat the sh it hit the fan when Sandy was down graded to a TS overnight and everyone heard on their drive in to work, Sandy downgraded to TS. I know first hand the public then was lulled for a time. GP hears that says , ah yet another false alarm, turns off their own personal radar only to find out Sunday that the real sh it is about to hit the fan, by then for the unlucky, too late. Fact is Sandy was a massive hurricane with 80 mile per hour winds at its core, a cat 2/3 surge with waves 35 feet tall. would it have made a difference if the headlines said that? knowing what I know now and hearing all the interviews after, yea I think it would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Look back at the lead up threads when they dropped H warnings, lots of well educated folks were aghast. We have to give so much credit to our local offices and Media Mets who hammered the surge aspects so hard, unfortunately most of the GP has been spoon fed since birth what a hurricane can do and really have no clue what ET means or represents. Really? The general public has no idea what a nor'easter can do? Those have been some of the worst storms in the history of the Jersey shore. on Sat the sh it hit the fan when Sandy was down graded to a TS overnight and everyone heard on their drive in to work, Sandy downgraded to TS. I know first hand the public then was lulled for a time. GP hears that says , ah yet another false alarm, turns off their own personal radar only to find out Sunday that the real sh it is about to hit the fan, by then for the unlucky, too late. Since when was Sunday too late for anyone? There's no one who couldn't still evacuate on Sunday. A lot of people could still evacuate Monday between the first high tide and the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Really? The general public has no idea what a nor'easter can do? Those have been some of the worst storms in the history of the Jersey shore. Since when was Sunday too late for anyone? There's no one who couldn't still evacuate on Sunday. A lot of people could still evacuate Monday between the first high tide and the second. Sorry man just saying what the interviews have said. FYI there has never been a storm as bad as Sandy since massive occupation of the coast has occurred. I would say most of the evac problem was NYC. This blew away Donna and Dec 92. Just remember how many years ago that really was. Also I am sure that Irenes non impact with flooding in those areas was part and partial. As I said the local offices really did an awesome job, its perception I believe from a population that has grown to fear Hurricane terminology but respect Noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Really? The general public has no idea what a nor'easter can do? Those have been some of the worst storms in the history of the Jersey shore. Since when was Sunday too late for anyone? There's no one who couldn't still evacuate on Sunday. A lot of people could still evacuate Monday between the first high tide and the second. Lol...nope no one had a clue it was going to be this strong, even tho the NHC said it would likely strengthen before landfall (hurricane or not). I said well beforehand this would be the fallout narrative of Sandy and it turns out I was dead on. The NWS can't hand-hold anymore than we already do nor can we make people evacuate when we state it. This whole discussion is ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Lol...nope no one had a clue it was going to be this strong, even tho the NHC said it would likely strengthen before landfall (hurricane or not). I said well beforehand this would be the fallout narrative of Sandy and it turns out I was dead on. The NWS can't hand-hold anymore than we already do nor can we make people evacuate when we state it. This whole discussion is ludicrous. You might believe that but many many well educated peers of yours beg to differ on the level of ludicrous, wonder over to the NE Sandy pinned thread and take a peak for a sample. You also might want to read up on post storm interviews with some EM's. Being educated and an insider puts you a little out of touch with common folks perception. You need to remember the words hurricane warning mean a helluva lot more to some not so weather savvy folks. Local Mets did a fantastic job conveying the danger, unfortunately not everyone listened which is no ones fault, but there were repercussions to the decision to not go with Hurricane warnings and that is indisputable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 You might believe that but many many well educated peers of yours beg to differ on the level of ludicrous, wonder over to the NE Sandy pinned thread and take a peak for a sample. You also might want to read up on post storm interviews with some EM's. Being educated and an insider puts you a little out of touch with common folks perception. You need to remember the words hurricane warning mean a helluva lot more to some not so weather savvy folks. Local Mets did a fantastic job conveying the danger, unfortunately not everyone listened which is no ones fault, but there were repercussions to the decision to not go with Hurricane warnings and that is indisputable. Well you might want to read up on why no hurricane warnings were issued. The public relies on the media for information as to how bad a storm will be and what precautions they should take...not where a storm ranks on some naming totem pole. I somehow doubt everyone would have just got up and evacuated if only the NHC would have issued hurricane warnings. This naming blame game is retarded and unwarranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Well you might want to read up on why no hurricane warnings were issued. The public relies on the media for information as to how bad a storm will be and what precautions they should take...not where a storm ranks on some naming totem pole. I somehow doubt everyone would have just got up and evacuated if only the NHC would have issued hurricane warnings. I have read and followed this closely since it was a progged lemon. You have missed my point completely. Textbook semantics,local offices workload and transitions confusion were, in my mind, not good enough reasons to discontinue and handover to local offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I have read and followed this closely since it was a progged lemon. You have missed my point completely. Textbook semantics,local offices workload and transitions confusion were, in my mind, not good enough reasons to discontinue and handover to local offices. No, you have missed our point, which is everyone knew a hurricane was coming and many decided, based on past experience, to ignore warnings anyway. Here's a great example: http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-jersey-railway-put-trains-sandy-flood-zone-020644706.html Yet a Reuters review of information disseminated before the storm found detailed maps issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, all warning that both the rail hub in Hoboken and the Meadows complex in Kearny would flood. Asked if NJ Transit executives saw those maps and factored the predictions into their decision-making, Weinstein said the agency considered the storm surge predictions but also relied on history and experience. Which is probably exactly what everyone else who didn't evacuate was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 No, you have missed our point, which is everyone knew a hurricane was coming Everyone except NHC apparently~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 NJ just wasn't prepared for a hurricane that actually didn't bust. Not suprising since they haven't had one in 111 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 NJ just wasn't prepared for a hurricane that actually didn't bust. Not suprising since they haven't had one in 111 years. That was part of it, but there was also the track. This may have been an area where forecasters failed to properly communicate the difference in threat. Normal hurricanes coming up the coast track right along the coast. This puts the strong wind side of the storm off shore, and the heavy rain part of the storm onshore. This is what New Jerseyans have gotten used to; the flood threat, not the surge or wind damage threat. Sandy's track put the strong wind side directly over most of the state, while the heavy rain side was in far southern NJ and Delaware. So, most people expected heavy rain and inland flooding, but were surprised at the utter ferocity of the wind and surge. I'm afraid I don't recall forecasters making a whole lot about this difference. Maybe I just missed it, but I tend to think it wasn't there. This explanation might've helped increase awareness that Sandy was in many ways, a whole different animal from what they were used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That was part of it, but there was also the track. This may have been an area where forecasters failed to properly communicate the difference in threat. Normal hurricanes coming up the coast track right along the coast. This puts the strong wind side of the storm off shore, and the heavy rain part of the storm onshore. This is what New Jerseyans have gotten used to; the flood threat, not the surge or wind damage threat. Sandy's track put the strong wind side directly over most of the state, while the heavy rain side was in far southern NJ and Delaware. So, most people expected heavy rain and inland flooding, but were surprised at the utter ferocity of the wind and surge. I'm afraid I don't recall forecasters making a whole lot about this difference. Maybe I just missed it, but I tend to think it wasn't there. This explanation might've helped increase awareness that Sandy was in many ways, a whole different animal from what they were used to. Is people were on those barrier Islands thinking a couple of 5ft sand dunes were going to protect them it indicates there were probably communication issues, denial issues, and lack of long term planning. Also the flat geography of the Jersey shore caused problems, the Stamford Hurricane barrier in CT held up great. Jersey shore is just a large flat area, where those things don't protect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Is people were on those barrier Islands thinking a couple of 5ft sand dunes were going to protect them it indicates there were probably communication issues, denial issues, and lack of long term planning. Also the flat geography of the Jersey shore caused problems, the Stamford Hurricane barrier in CT held up great. Jersey shore is just a large flat area, where those things don't protect much. Well you have to remember, again, that NJ has faced several so-called "hurricanes" over the last several decades. None of them did anything like the damage Sandy did, and none of them took the left hook track straight inland at Atlantic City. They were all tracks right up along the coast. Not to mention the fact that none of them had the highly unusual interaction with the powerful trough which caused Sandy to become more powerful than your average hurricane coming up the coast. Bottom line is this: Calling it a hurricane wouldn't have done much, if anything, to get more people out of harm's way. People have lived through hurricanes and this was nothing in their experience, and a lot of people will balance the warnings with their own experience. In fact, they probably heard "hurricane", thought of all the past ones they lived through, and figured it wouldn't be as bad as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 ...there were repercussions to the decision to not go with Hurricane warnings and that is indisputable. Do you have actual facts to back this up? Textbook semantics,local offices workload and transitions confusion were, in my mind, not good enough reasons to discontinue and handover to local offices. Really?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Do you have actual facts to back this up? Really?! look Mike I think you guys did an absolutely fantastic job. But listen to the interviews, read the NYT stories about Midland Beach but above all listen to this carefully, some people heard this and turned off their radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 look Mike I think you guys did an absolutely fantastic job. But listen to the interviews, read the NYT stories about Midland Beach but above all listen to this carefully, some people heard this and turned off their radar. So folks just ignored this storm over the next 2 days? That probably wasn't too smart of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 You might believe that but many many well educated peers of yours beg to differ on the level of ludicrous, wonder over to the NE Sandy pinned thread and take a peak for a sample. You also might want to read up on post storm interviews with some EM's. Being educated and an insider puts you a little out of touch with common folks perception. You need to remember the words hurricane warning mean a helluva lot more to some not so weather savvy folks. Local Mets did a fantastic job conveying the danger, unfortunately not everyone listened which is no ones fault, but there were repercussions to the decision to not go with Hurricane warnings and that is indisputable. Um, yes it is... it is their fault... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/17/3655442/restoring-verizon-service-manhattan-hurricane-sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 So folks just ignored this storm over the next 2 days? That probably wasn't too smart of them. of course but listen to what he said, surge not like a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 of course but listen to what he said, surge not like a hurricane. At that time, the NHC said the storm surge eventually affecting Long Island Sound could be up to 8 feet regardless of whether Sandy is a tropical or post-tropical storm by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 At that time, the NHC said the storm surge eventually affecting Long Island Sound could be up to 8 feet regardless of whether Sandy is a tropical or post-tropical storm by then. Obviously if the Mayor of the biggest city in the country could not delineate there is a communication issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Obviously if the Mayor of the biggest city in the country could not delineate there is a communication issue. True, if the mayor of the biggest city in the country cannot read there is a communication issue, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 True, if the mayor of the biggest city in the country cannot read there is a communication issue, I'd say. Amazingly stupid man for a self made billionaire. But at least New Yorkers aren't getting fat on super-sized drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 look Mike I think you guys did an absolutely fantastic job. But listen to the interviews, read the NYT stories about Midland Beach but above all listen to this carefully, some people heard this and turned off their radar. Yeah, not sure what he was thinking making a statement like that or where he got his information from. From what I can tell thus far, he was not being told that from the NWS. People have to take responsibility for themselves. Bloomberg is a mayor not a meteorologist! This could easily be an example of a communication issue or even not understanding the impacts properly. If I remember correctly, Bloomberg changed his tune about 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Here in Florida, we have a "State Meteorologist" who works in close coordination with NHC and NWS FO's on one side and State/Local EMOs, and Governor on the other. Does New York State have such a position? I suspect not, since when I interned at NWSFO ALB (now WFO ALY) back in the early 90's there was no such animal. If they don't have such a position, then they probably should put one in place ASAP. (Interestingly, the last two "State Mets" here in FL haved moved on to positions within the NWS.) In any event, I find it galling that Mayor Bloomberg said what he said given the information he had access to. The same would have to be said for Ray Nagin's initial lack of an evacuation order - until he was called directly by Max Mayfield. It seems that what was lacking in both cases was a State Met/DEM type of liaison who could accurately interpret and convey the full scope of Sandy's impacts so that the chief decision makers could put the correct emergency response plan into action immediately. Obviously, Bloomberg et al didn't initially grasp just how dire things were about to become with Sandy. Given recent events, there really is no excuse in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 USGS GIS Data on Sandy http://54.243.149.25...db8e92e3239837e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Was told that this is a bit overdone, at least in parts of south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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