Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Impacts

Srain

By Srain,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 352
  • Created
  • Last Reply
NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Hey all, here is a copy of the email my brother got from his landlord in Hopetown, Abaco in the Bahamas.

Hi All

Just got internet for the first time in three days, so here's the news… sorry about the generic response but there are just too many of you to customize.

Sandy was the strangest hurricane I've ever been through. She blew out of the NE for 12 hours with the strongest gusts in the 100 knt range occuring between 2 AM and 5 AM on Friday. Then by 7 AM we were in the eye and it all slacked off, really to calm winds. Everyone ran around in the morning getting new lines set to the West, and then we waited. The eye when she passed over us was at least 100 miles long, possibly more in a very elongated elipse, which passed over us perfectly. So the West-Southwest winds didn't begin for 11 hours! No one here has ever seen such a thing - usually eyes are 15 minutes to an hour long, but never 11 hours. Anyway, I was in the HT Marina and Inn docks so when it did finally go West, I was in the lee so nicely that the back side was an absolute piece of cake.

Two boats ended up on your reef Sarah. Stafford's houseboat and a 35 ft. monohull. And of course they're still there. I tied the Barbara W up at Sweenies dock with about 10 lines on her and she survived nicely. Margurite is in the slip next to me and came through perfectly too. Only a half dozen boats got loose from their moorings and no one sank or even got banged up too much.

The town is still without power and internet, but I managed to hack a free connection from WiMax, hence this email. It will probably be several days before power and internet are restored.

As for the island… huge amounts of sand everywhere, lots of trees down or stripped. The salt burn is even now beginning to show on the palmettos. The light is so strange what with all the foliage gone, but generally we didn't have any really catastrophic damage. My house was fine, but one of my fences took a hit. No big deal - just labor to fix it. So that's the story of Sandy.

Hope all you NE coast people make appropriate plans as this is a strange and surprising storm. She is huge it seems - Today is Sunday and the wind is still West at about 30 gusting to 40. I'll probably be stuck in the marina until Wednesday or even Thursday.

So that's the news from HT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jwilson

jwilson

Posted
Posted

From Morgantown, WV:

It's been doing this weird misting rain non-stop since yesterday afternoon. It has occasionally come down a bit harder. Wind has been light. Temps haven't gotten out of the 40s after dropping yesterday morning. I don't know how bad it will be here, but our power grid is pretty shaky, so I imagine even a moderate impact will take our power out for X hours/days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
biodhokie

biodhokie

Posted
Posted

From Morgantown, WV:

It's been doing this weird misting rain non-stop since yesterday afternoon. It has occasionally come down a bit harder. Wind has been light. Temps haven't gotten out of the 40s after dropping yesterday morning. I don't know how bad it will be here, but our power grid is pretty shaky, so I imagine even a moderate impact will take our power out for X hours/days.

pretty shaky, hell our lights already are flickering at home. then again they do that on a clear summer day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Srain

Srain

Posted
  • Author
Posted

E-mail from Jeff Lindner (Pro Met Harris County, TX Flood Control District):

Massive hurricane Sandy intensifies and takes dead aim at the US coast

Life threatening record storm surge flooding likely along the NJ, NYC, Long Island Sound, Long Island, CT, RI. Failure for persons to evacuate coastal locations will place their lives in grave danger.

Damage and human suffering will be high by modern standards with some economic models showing damage estimates potentially rivaling Hurricane Katrina.

Discussion:

As well advertised over the last few days, an epic hurricane event is heading for the US east coast as forecasted. Recon data this morning indicates the central pressure in Sandy has fallen to 946mb or roughly 5-8mb lower than yesterday and 20-25mb lower than the record lowest pressure records along the US mid Atlantic and NE coast. Deep convection has developed near the center of Sandy overnight and flight level winds of 102kts were recorded, although the system is likely not transferring all of this wind energy to the surface due to a overall lack of deep convection. The wind field is massive with TS force winds currently extending from NC to MA to Bermuda and hurricane force winds covering roughly 200-250 miles near the center. NOAA buoys report a large area of 30-40 foot seas over the western and northwestern Atlantic and coast webcams along the NJ coast show wave heights breaking on the beaches of 8-12 feet currently.

It is likely Sandy will continue to intensify as it moves over the warm Gulf stream in the next 6-8 hours as a tropical hurricane. As Sandy turns toward the NW and WNW over the next 12-18 hours (In fact recon just reported that a NNW turn has begun) the system will gradually entrain frontal air masses currently on the edges of the circulation deeper into the system and the transition toward a post tropical system should be nearing completion as Sandy strikes the New Jersey coast although thus far this system has been able to protect its fragile inner core and maintain a warm core tropical entity in the face of otherwise adverse conditions.

Regardless of where Sandy crosses the coast as a warm core tropical system or a cold core post tropical system…the devastating impacts will be the same.

Impacts:

Prolonged and devastating impacts are likely.

Storm Surge:

Record and life threatening storm surge event for the NJ, NYC, Long Island, CT, RI coasts.

Water level rise is already in progress along the coast this morning as massive wave action results in wave run-up and full moon lunar tides result in higher than normal tidal action. Additionally, onshore winds of TS force are reaching the coast and starting to pile water onto the beaches. Most locations have just peaked for the morning high tide with water levels already running 8.0 ft in parts of Long Island Sound, but this morning high tide will likely become trapped near the coast as wind increase over the next few hours.

Sandy will be nearing landfall nearly right on top of or just after the evening high tide cycle and it is this tide that is forecasted to bring record water levels to the coast. Current extra-tropical storm surge modeling brings a total water level rise of 12-13 feet to Long Island Sound including the CT coast, and eastern portions of New York City. On the New Jersey coast, north of where the center of Sandy make landfall a record 11-12 water level rise is forecast at Sandy Hook and into Raritan Bay exceeding the previous record of 10.1 ft!

At New York Harbor and the Battery a total water level rise of 11.0 ft is expected with 12.0ft at Point Bergen, NY. These water levels are 5-6 feet higher than Hurricane Irene last summer and it is highly likely that sea water is going to flood the NYC subway system and submerge portions of lower Manhattan. It is estimated that seawater flooding the NYC subway system could cause at least 10 billion in damage.

Ocean City, MD to CT/RI state line: 4-8 foot surge

Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT including NYC, western Long Island Sound, Hudson River, Raritan Bay: 8-12 ft

CT/RI including Cape Cod, Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay: 3-6 ft

Cape Code Bay and Boston: 2-4 ft

MA/NH to US/Canada border: 1-3 ft

SE VA, DELMARVA, lower Chesapeake Bay: 2-4 ft

Massive offshore wave action of 35-45 ft will break on the beaches in the 10-15 foot range on top of the storm surge water level rise. Expecting the surge to overtop and breach protective dune systems and seawalls with large destructive waves aimed into coastal structures. Many structures near the beach will be damaged to the point of total collapse and some will be washed into the ocean along the entire NJ, NY, Long Island, CT, RI coasts.

Extra-tropical Storm Surge Forecast Points:

http://www.nws.noaa....e=map&region=ne

NYC Surge Inundation Potential:

http://anglicanpraye...30-utc-nyc1.png

NWS MT Holly, NY Public Plea:

“If you are being asked to evacuate a coastal location by state and local officials, please do so.

•If you are reluctant to evacuate, and you know someone who rode out the ‘62 storm on the barrier islands, ask them if they would do it again.

•If you are still reluctant, think about your loved ones, think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach you when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, think about the rescue/recovery teams who will rescue you if you are injured or recover your remains if you do not survive.

•Sandy is an extremely dangerous storm. There will be major property damage, injuries are probably unavoidable, but the goal iszero fatalities.

•If you think the storm is over-hyped and exaggerated, please err on the side of caution. You can call me up on Friday (contact information is at the end of this briefing) and yell at me all you want.

•I will listen to your concerns and comments, but I will tell you in advance, I will be very happy that you are alive & well, no matter how much you yell at me.

•Gary Szatkowski – National Weather Service Mount Holly”

Winds:

Winds near the center of Sandy have increased to 85mph this morning and NHC suggest that Sandy may intensify to a high end category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane prior to landfall. Widespread winds of 45-55mph with gust to 75-85mph will affect the entire area from the DELMARVA to MA with more frequent hurricane force wind gust aimed at the NJ and NY area. This will be a prolonged event with sustained winds above 40mph for 24-48 hours and sustained winds of 50-60mph along the NJ and NY coast for 12-16 hours.

Widespread wind damage is expect to extend from NC to Canada and inland to the OH Valley. In fact the circulation is so large that strong winds on the western side will likely produce large waves on Lake Michigan and strong winds in Chicago.

Extensive vegetation damage will occur with many trees being downed as the ground saturates. Massive and long lasting power outages will be common and there is concern this morning that the entire NE electric grid could be brought down due to the potential for such widespread damage to lines and potential flooding of sub-stations.

Rainfall:

A very heavy rainfall band has established on the far western flank of Sandy this morning right across the Washington DC metro area. Rainfall rates in this low level convergent band are on the order of .5 to 1.5 inches per hour and this band will likely remain nearly stationary for much of the day. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be likely to the south and west of where the center of Sandy crosses the coast with isolated totals of 12-15 inches possible resulting in the potential for catastrophic inland flash flooding. Dry air wrapping into the eastern flank of Sandy may actually help mitigate heavy rainfall over a large part of New England with the worst impacts from rainfall being over the DELMARVA WNW into PA , VA, and OH.

Snow:

Showing how rare of an event this is, heavy prolonged snow is expected on the western flank of the system over potions of the higher mountains of NC, WV and eastern OH. Tropical moisture will interact with the cold air to produce potentially incredible snowfall rates and amounts. Amounts of 2-3 feet will be possible in the above mentioned areas.

Aside:

A 17 foot sailing vessel 160 miles from the center of Sandy this morning with 17 persons onboard has lost all engine propulsion overnight and is taking on water in 35-40 foot seas and zero visibility in blowing sea spray. USCG aircraft are onsite, but have aborted an initial rescue attempt due to the sea state and hurricane force winds. US Navy vessels ordered to sea yesterday from Norfolk, VA are also reporting “significant” sea state with massive waves and relentless winds.

post-32-0-82030800-1351516719_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Srain

Srain

Posted
  • Author
Posted

CNN reporting crew of HMS Bounty had to abandon ship off coast of NC. 14 rescued, 2 or 3 missing.

News Release

Date: Oct. 29, 2012

Contact: 5th District Public Affairs

Office: (757) 398-6272

UPDATE: Coast Guard rescues 14, continues searching for 2 from HMS Bounty

CORRECTION: It was previously reported to be a 17-person crew. The crew size is 16.

PORTSMOUTH, Va. — The Coast Guard rescued 14 people from life rafts in the Atlantic Ocean approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras N.C., Monday, and two people remain missing.

Watchstanders dispatched crews aboard two MH-60 Jayhawk helicopters from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City, N.C., to rescue the crew.

The first Jayhawk crew arrived on scene at approximately 6:30 a.m. and hoisted five people into the aircraft, and a second helicopter arrived and rescued nine people.

The 14 people are being flown to Air Station Elizabeth City where they will be met by awaiting emergency medical services personnel.

The C-130 Hercules aircraft remains on scene and is searching for the two missing crewmembers and a third Jayhawk crew is en route to assist search and rescue efforts.

The 16 people donned cold water survival suits and life jackets before launching in two 25-man lifeboats with canopies.

Coast Guard Sector North Carolina initially received a call from the owner of the 180-foot, three mast tall ship, HMS Bounty, saying she had lost communication with the vessel's crew late Sunday evening.

The Coast Guard 5th District command center in Portsmouth subsequently received a signal from the emergency position indicating radio beacon registered to the Bounty, confirming the distress and position.

An air crew from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City launched aboard an HC-130 Hercules aircraft, which later arrived on scene and established communications with the Bounty's crew.

The vessel was reportedly taking on water and was without propulsion. On scene weather is reported to be 40 mph winds and 18-foot seas.

Correction: It was previously reported to be a 17-person crew. The crew size is 16.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Monster waves forecast for southern Lake Michigan tomorrow...no doubt coastal erosion/flooding will be an issue. I'm gonna try to head over there to document.

IMPACTS...THE LONG DURATION...FULL LENGTH FETCH...AND PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVES INTO THE 20-25 FT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES OF 30-33 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jayson

jayson

Posted
Posted

Not sure where this is exactly?

I am sure some of you know

Brigantine Beach sea wall has collapsed. The police chief is telling all resident to leave NOW. 70% of the 9500 residents stayed to ride out the storm.

Brigantine is the island north of Atlantic City. Do you have a source on this news?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Srain

Srain

Posted
  • Author
Posted

E-mail update from Jeff Lindner (HCFCD):

Sandy plowing toward the coast.

NWS Mt Holly, NJ noon briefing:

“Options for it to miss us have run out. This is our worst case scenario. Evening high tide will bring coastal flooding worse than anything we have ever seen. Barrier Islands will be cut-off completely from the mainland. Historic life threatening storm surge is imminent”

Radar Loop:

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

Coastal water level rise in progress, sea water already inundating portions of lower Manhattan and N New Jersey. See images below:

post-32-0-31657100-1351534534_thumb.jpg

post-32-0-05993300-1351534544_thumb.jpg

post-32-0-10256400-1351534554_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...