Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Impacts

[HurricaneJosh]

That doesn't strike me as being particularly accurate, either. Peak sustained wind at ACY was 51 mph... 44 knots. The map is definitely in error there. Peak at PHL was 44 mph or 38 knots, again the map is in error. It gets worse in Delaware, where the map shows peak sustained of 40 knots but GED only reported 24 knots. Further north, peak sustained at EWR was 52 mph, 45 knots, so the map is closer to being accurate there. Also at JFK, peak sustained was 56 mph, 49 knots, so the map looks about right there as well. Same thing at ISP so the map is also about right there, maybe even a bit too high. So its about right around NYC metro, but definitely too high down in NJ.

Yeah, agreed. Like you, I'm under the impression that the highest observed winds were in N NJ, NYC, and LI-- not S NJ, near the landfall point.

I've noticed weird stuff like this with past hurricanes, including ones I've chased-- where the H*WIND isotachs didn't seem to line up with what I saw-- or what was measured-- on the ground.

[Ginx snewx]

If somebody knows of a non tropical storm on the East Coast with a 978 MB pressure reading 100 miles North of a 945 reading please post the link.

[dizzy9479]

Completely agreed -- I live about 15-20 miles due south of PHL, and we are very thankful that wind was almost a non-issue for us. According to the H*WIND, we should have seen 50 kts sustained, while I know of no one within 20 miles of us that had anything but small branches down. Certainly not complaining -- like I said, we were extremely lucky. But, the maximum gust of 44 mph at Millville seems more in line with what we experienced in southern Gloucester County.

Yeah, agreed. Like you, I'm under the impression that the highest observed winds were in N NJ, NYC, and LI-- not S NJ, near the landfall point.

I've noticed weird stuff like this with past hurricanes, including ones I've chased-- where the H*WIND isotachs didn't seem to line up with what I saw-- or what was measured-- on the ground.

[HurricaneJosh]

Completely agreed -- I live about 15-20 miles due south of PHL, and we are very thankful that wind was almost a non-issue for us. According to the H*WIND, we should have seen 50 kts sustained, while I know of no one within 20 miles of us that had anything but small branches down. Certainly not complaining -- like I said, we were extremely lucky. But, the maximum gust of 44 mph at Millville seems more in line with what we experienced in southern Gloucester County.

That's really interesting-- that you're in a 50-kt isotach on the map and the wind was a non-issue for you-- because, yeah, 50 kt sustained is very strong-- and if that had happened, you would have been like, whoa!

I wonder how they settled on some of these contours. It's quite mysterious.

[Ellinwood]

ClimateCentral ‏@ClimateCentral

This just in: NOAA commissions internal review of its performance during Hurricane Sandy. Led by Nat'l Marine Fisheries Service scientist

[famartin]

Sandy report:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

[Ed Lizard]

Sandy report:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

Not that I had any hope, but does the Sandy upgrade to Cat 3 change the 2012 tropical contest?

[ncforecaster89]

I had a couple minutes to very quickly read through the last posts contained in this particular thread.  Although I agree with the overwhelming sentiment that the H*WIND isotachs aren't too consistent with the empirical data observed on the ground in many areas near the landfall point, I can personally attest to the fact that some of the strongest winds-and highest recorded wind gusts-did in fact occur just N (within 5-10 nm) of the landfall point.  

 

The important distinction that should be made is the timing as to when the strongest winds impacted the aforementioned localities.  For instance, the most intense winds (and wind gusts) occurred roughly 2 1/2 hours prior to the center of "Sandy" crossing the NJ shoreline.  The highest wind gust (88 mph) measured by a WeatherFlow anemometer, at the standard 10 m height, was recorded in Tuckerton, NJ around 430 pm local time. 

 

http://www.weatherflow.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Sandy-PR_final2-

 

It is important to note that there were several other hurricane-force wind gusts measured in this general area around the same time frame.  These measurements, and the specific timing of these observations, are totally consistent with the conditions I observed along the central NJ coastline, as well. 

 

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/10/sandy_wind_speed_map_see_how_s.html

 

By the time the actual center of circulation (COC) crossed the NJ shoreline-around 8 pm EST-the strongest winds were felt in areas farther north like northern NJ, NYC, and L.I.  At this time, I was in the actual COC, as a direct result of the center being so large in diameter.     

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/sandy/Sandy_windgusts.png

 

In short, it is not entirely accurate to suggest that some of the strongest winds weren't experienced near the actual landfall point-for they were-but, rather, they occured a significant distance away from the actual COC-well before the COC reached the coast.  These empirical observations are also consistent with the fact that the strongest winds were occuring well away from the center of "Sandy", before and after landfall.

[Ed Lizard]

Surprising (not) news of the day...

 

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130411_sandynameretiredt.html

[MJO812]

Some stores are still closed in my area.

[jm1220]

Some stores are still closed in my area.

Lots of stores are still closed in my hometown (Long Beach, NY), some are just a shell and are completely gutted on the inside. Our hospital is still closed, as is one of our elementary schools. Our school district's main administrative building has been condemned and has to be rebuilt. Pretty much entire blocks/neighborhoods in the low-lying parts of town have to still be either bulldozed or raised up above the flood level as per FEMA/NFIP specifications (estimated 850-900 homes just in Long Beach). Insurance money has been slow to come in, so many homes are still just sitting there, gutted and abandoned. Quite a number of people will likely just sell and be done with it. I was actually one of the lucky ones to just be out of my home for 2 months and having some help in replacing the tangible items such as furniture, beds, etc. The boardwalk still hasn't begun to be rebuilt and won't until close to Memorial Day. It is not expected to be completed until sometime next fall. Many large buildings near the beach (the beach is getting closer to being made as it was but still much of the sand has to be replaced) still need extensive repairs and some are still uninhabited. The total damage bill for just Long Beach is approx. $250 million, which is the equivalent of 3 times our entire annual budget.

 

So yeah, my town is still pretty much f**ked.

[jm1220]

^^^^

this

The people I've spoken to that were impacted along the shore stayed because they felt it was going to be similar to Irene, i.e. not very impactful. The intentional (IMHO) categorization of Irene as a hurricane when it was likely not led to the complacency of the public, and not anything related to what NHC/NWS did with Sandy, which I think was exemplary from both the NHC and the NWS offices.

Perhaps to stir the pot one last time on this point, most people in my devastated home town thought Sandy would be "just a nor'easter" when it hit because of the confusing and ambiguous news reporting that combined "perfect storm", nor'easter, and hurricane together, as well as the hype generated from previous storms like Irene, which compared to Sandy was like a dynamite stick vs. a JDAM. When media reports started saying that Sandy would transition into a nor'easter, most people just completely tuned it out. I tried explaining to some people how the transfer of energy and blocking which would force Sandy west would actually make it worse and they basically said "how can a hurricane get worse when it becomes a nor'easter?" I'm not sure exactly how you would rectify this in the future for a similar situation, but that combined with there just beng a High Wind Warning and Coastal Flood Warning made it seem less urgent. Few people evacuated and some of the bars in town were packed when Sandy hit-it's honestly miraculous that many people weren't swept away when the surge arrived, because people were out when night approached and some had to run to higher ground. That surge definitely hit in a big way, fast. In many ways, for as much destruction as there was, we lucked out in that the death toll wasn't much, much higher given the population density we have.

[bluewave]

Lots of stores are still closed in my hometown (Long Beach, NY), some are just a shell and are completely gutted on the inside. Our hospital is still closed, as is one of our elementary schools. Our school district's main administrative building has been condemned and has to be rebuilt. Pretty much entire blocks/neighborhoods in the low-lying parts of town have to still be either bulldozed or raised up above the flood level as per FEMA/NFIP specifications (estimated 850-900 homes just in Long Beach). Insurance money has been slow to come in, so many homes are still just sitting there, gutted and abandoned. Quite a number of people will likely just sell and be done with it. I was actually one of the lucky ones to just be out of my home for 2 months and having some help in replacing the tangible items such as furniture, beds, etc. The boardwalk still hasn't begun to be rebuilt and won't until close to Memorial Day. It is not expected to be completed until sometime next fall. Many large buildings near the beach (the beach is getting closer to being made as it was but still much of the sand has to be replaced) still need extensive repairs and some are still uninhabited. The total damage bill for just Long Beach is approx. $250 million, which is the equivalent of 3 times our entire annual budget.

 

So yeah, my town is still pretty much f**ked.

 

I was able to get back into Long Beach two days after Sandy. One of the first things that jumped out at me was the section

of the boardwalk that came to a rest at the entrance of the Waldbaums parking lot. People told me the scariest part of the

storm for them was after the power went out before the highest flood levels arrived. Several people that I spoke to said

that they could hear the water rushing by outside while they were getting flooded out with the car alarms making a racket.

I heard one account of the surge breaking in someones picture window near the bay and fish flopping around on their

living room floor when the tide went out. 

 

There was a reporter from Sacramento that stayed in Long Beach and was doing live reports outside up until a few hours

before the highest tide levels arrived. You can see the surge rushing up National to Park two or more hours ahead of the

high tide Monday evening. He had to take refuge in the Police department right after he filed this report. He said that 

during the evening high tide the tide made it up to near the top step of the police station.

 

CBS report

 

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/video/7897552-cbs13s-nick-janes-reports-on-hurricane-sandy/

[jm1220]

I was able to get back into Long Beach two days after Sandy. One of the first things that jumped out at me was the section

of the boardwalk that came to a rest at the entrance of the Waldbaums parking lot. People told me the scariest part of the

storm for them was after the power went out before the highest flood levels arrived. Several people that I spoke to said

that they could hear the water rushing by outside while they were getting flooded out with the car alarms making a racket.

I heard one account of the surge breaking in someones picture window near the bay and fish flopping around on their

living room floor when the tide went out. 

 

There was a reporter from Sacramento that stayed in Long Beach and was doing live reports outside up until a few hours

before the highest tide levels arrived. You can see the surge rushing up National to Park two or more hours ahead of the

high tide Monday evening. He had to take refuge in the Police department right after he filed this report. He said that 

during the evening high tide the tide made it up to near the top step of the police station.

 

CBS report

 

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/video/7897552-cbs13s-nick-janes-reports-on-hurricane-sandy/

Quite a scary night indeed. And one that caught a huge number of people off guard, despite the many days of warnings that went out.

 

There is definitely a "tale of two cities" effect in terms of normalization and recovery thus far, which you could even see a week or two from the date of the storm. Much of Long Island and NYC was essentially back to normal by Nov 15th, but the truly devastated areas continue to be so today. Some places in the West End might as well be a few days after the storm still. There is still a huge need for resources and assistance for those areas, and it's very slow in coming from the various relief and insurance agencies. A few of my close friends and families have left Long Beach permanently and are selling, and more are thinking of doing so because of their having to pay rent for their apartment/living arrangement now plus their mortgage, plus getting a start on repairs. One of my friends' home was pushed from the foundation, but the insurance company is fighting their claim, saying shifty soil caused it and not water. The total repair cost is somewhere in the neighborhood of $225K, and they have so far received about $25K-he is currently suing the company for more. The family moved into an apartment, where the landlord doubled the rent on them 2 months after moving in, so they had to move out and into another apartment. It's still a horrible situation for many people, and it hasn't really improved for them in the last few months. Again, I was one of the very lucky ones who didn't have any major problems with obtaining funding or with slumlords/insurance companies.

[jconsor]

Hi guys.  There were several excellent presentations on Sandy at the recent AMS conference.  Recordings of them are available at:

 

http://blog.ametsoc.org/weather-systems/hurricane-sandy-nhc-final-report-and-ams-town-hall-presentations-online/

 

(You need to scroll down to the bottom of the page).

[Roger Smith]

Agree that the nomenclature issue was a public safety hazard of the unintended consequences variety.

 

However, would also say, next time anyone says that a hurricane will turn into a super strong nor'easter, people will take the warnings very seriously. Assuming next time is before say 2030, by then memories of Sandy will be faded a bit.

 

I would personally go with cat-1 to landfall and call it a NJ landfall hurricane, if asked to make the decision, but I doubt that's going to be the case, so ... whatever they call it, Sandy was a long-return-period event, we just don't know if it's 500 or 1,000 years or whatever, but wasn't there some talk of archaeological evidence of a worse storm in pre-Columbian times? Can anyone be sure that wasn't a tsunami from a mid-ocean earthquake?

[famartin]

I would personally go with cat-1 to landfall and call it a NJ landfall hurricane, if asked to make the decision, but I doubt that's going to be the case, so ...

That decision was already made.

[icebreaker5221]

Agree that the nomenclature issue was a public safety hazard of the unintended consequences variety.

 

However, would also say, next time anyone says that a hurricane will turn into a super strong nor'easter, people will take the warnings very seriously. Assuming next time is before say 2030, by then memories of Sandy will be faded a bit.

 

I would personally go with cat-1 to landfall and call it a NJ landfall hurricane, if asked to make the decision, but I doubt that's going to be the case, so ... whatever they call it, Sandy was a long-return-period event, we just don't know if it's 500 or 1,000 years or whatever, but wasn't there some talk of archaeological evidence of a worse storm in pre-Columbian times? Can anyone be sure that wasn't a tsunami from a mid-ocean earthquake?

 

 

I believe this was the figure you were looking for?  Only goes back to the 1600s, but shows that a storm surge in southern New England similar to Sandy ( > 3m) has a return period of about every 50-100 years.  However, to get a surge that exceeds Sandy, you have to go back to 1638. 

 

 

[bluewave]

A recent NASA/Columbia study has a 714 year return period for a track like Sandy in a static climate and

the record tide levels around the NYC area as a 400-800 year event.

 

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~sobel/Papers/hall_sobel_grl_submitted.pdf

 

 

Hurricane Sandy’s track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to  perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record. This steep angle  was one of many contributing factors to a surge-plus-tide peak-water level that  surpassed 4m in parts of New Jersey and New York. The lack of precedent in the  historic record makes it difficult to estimate the rate of Sandy-like events using  solely historic landfalls. Here we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane  data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricane  tracks. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions a hurricane of Sandy’s intensity or greater (category 1+) is expected to make NJ landfall at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy at an average annual rate of only 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 yr (95% confidence range 1429 to 435). Thus, either Sandy was an exceedingly rare storm, or our assumption of long-term average climate conditions is erroneous, and Sandy’s track was made more likely by climate change in a way  that is yet to be fully determined. 

 

 

Hurricane Sandy’s near perpendicular impact with the NJ coast was exceedingly rare. We have estimated here an annual occurrence rate of only 141 0.0014/year (714 year return period, 95% confidence range 1429 to 435 years) for  landfall by a hurricane of at least Sandy’s intensity and at least as perpendicular an  impact angle. Because many factors influence storm surge, the rate for surge at least as high as Sandy is likely higher. Historical records suggest that there have been several comparable events in New York City in the last several hundred years [scileppi and Donnelly, 2007]. Numerical simulations estimate that Sandy-level  surges on Manhattan occur on average every 400-800 years [Lin et al., 2012],  somewhat more frequent, but overlapping, our range for Sandy’s track.

[jm1220]

A recent NASA/Columbia study has a 714 year return period for a track like Sandy in a static climate and

the record tide levels around the NYC area as a 400-800 year event.

 

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~sobel/Papers/hall_sobel_grl_submitted.pdf

 

 

Hurricane Sandy’s track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to  perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record. This steep angle  was one of many contributing factors to a surge-plus-tide peak-water level that  surpassed 4m in parts of New Jersey and New York. The lack of precedent in the  historic record makes it difficult to estimate the rate of Sandy-like events using  solely historic landfalls. Here we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane  data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricane  tracks. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions a hurricane of Sandy’s intensity or greater (category 1+) is expected to make NJ landfall at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy at an average annual rate of only 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 yr (95% confidence range 1429 to 435). Thus, either Sandy was an exceedingly rare storm, or our assumption of long-term average climate conditions is erroneous, and Sandy’s track was made more likely by climate change in a way  that is yet to be fully determined. 

 

 

Hurricane Sandy’s near perpendicular impact with the NJ coast was exceedingly rare. We have estimated here an annual occurrence rate of only 141 0.0014/year (714 year return period, 95% confidence range 1429 to 435 years) for  landfall by a hurricane of at least Sandy’s intensity and at least as perpendicular an  impact angle. Because many factors influence storm surge, the rate for surge at least as high as Sandy is likely higher. Historical records suggest that there have been several comparable events in New York City in the last several hundred years [scileppi and Donnelly, 2007]. Numerical simulations estimate that Sandy-level  surges on Manhattan occur on average every 400-800 years [Lin et al., 2012],  somewhat more frequent, but overlapping, our range for Sandy’s track.

I wonder what kind of damage Sandy would have caused had it hit in colonial or early-1800s times instead of today. The 1821 hurricane had surge up to Canal Street, Sandy would have been even further? Probably would have dug out even more canals and breaches in the barrier island chain as well.

[icebreaker5221]

A recent NASA/Columbia study has a 714 year return period for a track like Sandy in a static climate and

the record tide levels around the NYC area as a 400-800 year event.

 

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~sobel/Papers/hall_sobel_grl_submitted.pdf

 

 

Hurricane Sandy’s track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to  perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record. This steep angle  was one of many contributing factors to a surge-plus-tide peak-water level that  surpassed 4m in parts of New Jersey and New York. The lack of precedent in the  historic record makes it difficult to estimate the rate of Sandy-like events using  solely historic landfalls. Here we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane  data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricane  tracks. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions a hurricane of Sandy’s intensity or greater (category 1+) is expected to make NJ landfall at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy at an average annual rate of only 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 yr (95% confidence range 1429 to 435). Thus, either Sandy was an exceedingly rare storm, or our assumption of long-term average climate conditions is erroneous, and Sandy’s track was made more likely by climate change in a way  that is yet to be fully determined. 

 

 

Hurricane Sandy’s near perpendicular impact with the NJ coast was exceedingly rare. We have estimated here an annual occurrence rate of only 141 0.0014/year (714 year return period, 95% confidence range 1429 to 435 years) for  landfall by a hurricane of at least Sandy’s intensity and at least as perpendicular an  impact angle. Because many factors influence storm surge, the rate for surge at least as high as Sandy is likely higher. Historical records suggest that there have been several comparable events in New York City in the last several hundred years [scileppi and Donnelly, 2007]. Numerical simulations estimate that Sandy-level  surges on Manhattan occur on average every 400-800 years [Lin et al., 2012],  somewhat more frequent, but overlapping, our range for Sandy’s track.

 

 

Of course it all depends upon how strict a criteria you are going to use when determining a return period.  Their return period is based on intensity AND angle of approach.  If one were to just go by intensity, the return period would be less.  Storms like the 1938 hurricane don't affect as large an area but result in localized devastation.  I suppose we shouldn't include them when calculating the return period for "a storm like Sandy", but it does suggest that (presumably) warm-seclusion events happen more than once every 700 years. 

[famartin]

Of course it all depends upon how strict a criteria you are going to use when determining a return period.  Their return period is based on intensity AND angle of approach. 

I thought it included location as well.  That makes the return period longer, no doubt.  Its a reason why many people don't understand "return period".  When they hear a place was hit by a 100 year storm, and then the next week another place was hit by a 100 year storm, they believe that either crazy things are happening, or the return period calculations aren't right.  However, generally speaking return period includes location, so seeing a 100 year storm at one place doesn't invalidate a 100 year storm next week at another place, even if its nearby.

[icebreaker5221]

I thought it included location as well.  That makes the return period longer, no doubt.  Its a reason why many people don't understand "return period".  When they hear a place was hit by a 100 year storm, and then the next week another place was hit by a 100 year storm, they believe that either crazy things are happening, or the return period calculations aren't right.  However, generally speaking return period includes location, so seeing a 100 year storm at one place doesn't invalidate a 100 year storm next week at another place, even if its nearby.

 

Sorry, yes, of course location was a criteria as well.