Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Impacts

[Srain]

Post your observations and local impacts from Sandy here including official NWS/NOAA/NHC statements. This thread will cover obs and impact discussions for the entire East Coast and inland from Florida to New England.

[Srain]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

226 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO

SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE

CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN

====================

A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND

INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR

THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL

REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT

WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE

ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN

EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES

REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.

MODEL PREFERENCE

================

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE

00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY

MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A

PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS

WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW

YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)

EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS

WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO

NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT

NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE

WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE

REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW

PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT

IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL

ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS

QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS

===============

PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS

HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE

NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING

TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE

TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE

TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE

COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY

RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT

CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE

NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN

CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS

SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA

HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN

APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN

GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC

FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS

AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD

SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT

EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL

ORIGIN OF THE LOW.

UPSTREAM...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

SLOWS FROM HPC CONTINUITY SLIGHTLY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF ERN

PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY ACROSS THE WRN US MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...MORE

SLUGGISH TO BUMP INTO A LEAD AMBIENT MEAN MID-UPPER RIDGE

POSITION. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY

PRECIPIATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN US NEXT

WEEK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 4-7 LIQUID

AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST FAVORED PAC NW COASTAL

TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD

AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[hazwoper]

Well, in case others in the other threads haven't seen this, I'd say this is quite an impact. Voluntary and then on Sunday mandatory evacuations on Cape May County barrier islands.

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/19925860/mandatory-evacuation-on

Also, generators seem to be hard to find these days

[andyhb]

At least 11 people killed in Cuba, deadliest hurricane since Dennis for them.

[Hoosier]

One of the things that hasn't gotten much attention is the wind potential for areas west of the Apps, especially for folks living near the lakes. If the models are to be believed then anyone living near shore of Erie, Ontario and maybe Huron will be prone to sustained winds around 40-50 mph and gusts in the 60-75 mph range.

[WVclimo]

For the mountains to my west:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN

WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS

ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL START LATE SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH

TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...

CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. UNTREATED ROADS MAY

BECOME VERY SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOWER 30S UPPER VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE

UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

[heavy_wx]

One of the things that hasn't gotten much attention is the wind potential for areas west of the Apps, especially for folks living near the lakes. If the models are to be believed then anyone living near shore of Erie, Ontario and maybe Huron will be prone to sustained winds around 40-50 mph and gusts in the 60-75 mph range.

The winds could be pretty high off Lake Ontario considering we had 35-40 mph sustained winds during Irene. With a strong high to the west and a system potentially deeper than Irene, the pressure gradient will be stronger.

There may also be stronger winds near the south shore of Lake Huron because of a longer fetch across the lake, although the gradient will probably be a bit weaker.

[Ellinwood]

Areas currently under a State of Emergency: NY, PA, MD, DC, VA and eastern NC. Some voluntary evacs have also begun in NJ.

Should have a lot more states following suit in the next couple of days.

[aslkahuna]

Seventy knot winds at landfall on the East Coast if verified while nowhere near the wind impact of the Columbus Day storm 50 years ago in the Pac NW, is going to be a really nasty event for many people and a dangerous one. That kind of sustained wind with gusts of 90kt will give many people a taste of what real hurricane force winds are like-something probably less than one in 100 people on this forum have ever seen.

Steve

[AlexD]

Strongly worded statement from NWS PHI:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A

TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL

SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR

REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF

HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS

STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON

THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS

WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10

INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS

ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING.

RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY

EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT

TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL

INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS

ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE

COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH

EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT

THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND

WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME

TO PREPARE.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.

2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.

3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE

SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR

FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.

4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING

AND COOKING.

5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT

INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN

STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY

LEAVES.

7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER

MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.

8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE

DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN

AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.

9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

[andyhb]

Strongly worded statement from NWS PHI:

Wow.

[Sunny and Warm]

I see the question as to who will issue various products going forward. Mount Holly seems to have answered that question:

SANDY: FOR LATEST ADVISORIES/TRACK-INTENSITY/CONE OF WIND PROBABILITIES

AND EVENTUALLY PSURGE...PLS FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS.

SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL TRANSITIONING TO A

POWERFUL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALL HAZARDS FOR THE MOUNT HOLLY

AREA WILL BE GENERATED USING STANDARD NON TROPICAL PROCEDURES.

[Ellinwood]

Eyewitness News ‏@eyewitnessnyc

Breaking News: A mandatory evacuation has been ordered of all Town of Islip communities located on Fire Island ahead of Hurricane Sandy.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner (Pro Met Harris, TX County Flood Control District):

Historic storm system heading for the mid Atlantic and NE US.

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.

Discussion:

The transition of Sandy from a pure tropical cyclone toward more of mid-latitude cyclone has begun. Sandy is still located near the northern Bahamas this morning, but satellite and radar images along with recon data suggest that the system has made the expected turn toward the NNE and this motion should continue with an increase in forward speed. Aircraft data also shows the wind field is greatly expanding with TS force winds extending outward 435 miles from the center with the highest winds located across the western and northwestern flank of the circulation where sporadic deep convection is found.

Across the north Atlantic and the US, the upper air pattern continues to “block” with massive high pressure building over eastern Canada and a strong trough (our cold front) pressing into the eastern US. A shortwave over the western states this morning will swing through the base of the main trough and tilt it from SE to NW over the SE and mid Atlantic starting tomorrow. Sandy will become captured by this titling and instead of pushed out to sea, make a hard left turn (NW) back toward the US mid-Atlantic and NE US coast between the trough to her SW and the blocking high to her NE. Global guidance is in very good agreement on this pattern and in fact has very little spread in the track solution given the complex interactions that will be in place. Models show Sandy moving NW to WNW toward the New Jersey coast and making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning and then slowing down as she moves inland.

As for intensity, Sandy is gradually taking on more and more mid latitude influences although her center core remains “warm” or tropical. Jet stream phasing with the system is starting to occur with temperature gradient developing on her outer flanks of the large circulation. As Sandy moves northward this process will intensify has the warm Caribbean air mass clashes with a very cold polar air mass resulting in strong baroclinic intensification. Sandy will also be located in the favorable region of the trough and jet stream axis to promote surface deepening of a cyclone. Models continue to advertise “incredibly” low pressures with the ECMWF showing a record 942mb low near landfall on the New Jersey coast which is an astounding 30mb lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm and 6mb lower than anything ever recorded in the NE US.

Given the continued very good model agreement on both track and the forecasted extreme low pressures, confidence is building that an extremely rare powerful storm system will impact the NE and mid-Atlantic coast from Sunday-Thursday.

Impacts:

Major travel disruption is likely as numerous major E coast airports will not be able to sustain operations and this will have ripple effects across the nation. Additionally, widespread power outages and down trees will greatly hamper surface and rail travel across the entire region with widespread and potentially prolonged impacts to commerce.

This will be a long duration multi-day event with prolonged impacts over the entire area from North Carolina to Canada and extending inland into the OH valley affecting some 55-65 million people.

Coastal flooding or storm surge flooding appears to be significant especially for the New Jersey and New York (NYC and Long Island) coasts. The angle of approach this storm will be taking from (SE to NW) strikes the coast at a right angle instead of the usual grazing by of the coast most storms in this region take (SW to NE or parallel to the coast). This direct hit on the coast will drive onshore winds and massive amounts of Atlantic seawater toward the central and northern New Jersey coast and into the “L” shaped New York Bight area of southern New York City and western Long Island (a worst case track for this area, that has never occurred before with this strong of a storm system). The fetch of wind across the entire north Atlantic will drive large waves and surge to the coast and this will last for several high tide cycles. Tides will be at their maximum due to the full moon on Monday. Massive beach erosion is likely with coastal structures experiences significant damage many to the point of total collapse. Seawater inundation will be extensive and widespread and long lasting and in some places potentially record setting. Due to the rare track of this storm, some locations that have never before experienced coastal flooding, may flood with this event.

Winds of 50-60mph with gust to 70-80mph will battered a wide area for 24-48 hours. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages which could rival some of the largest power outages ever in the US. The prolonged nature of the event will result in trees giving way over time as the ground saturates from the heavy rainfall. Winds will be higher in an near tall high rise buildings where funneling will take place. Structure damage will be mainly from trees falling into buildings and to roofs from the wind itself.

Rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches will be common over a very large area with totals of 8-12 inches over New Jersey into southern PA and New York. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible as the tropical moisture from Sandy’s air mass crashes into the eastern slopes of the mountains and a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall of this magnitude over an area of steep terrain will produce life threatening flash flooding and major river flooding.

Ocean seas will be building to staggering heights over the next few days. Already buoys north of the Bahamas have been reporting 30 foot seas, and Wave Watch III guidance is maxed out at 42-48 foot seas over the NW Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The expanding area of strong winds of 50-60mph and the massive fetch of wind all the way from Europe will produce very large swells. Would not be surprised to see reports of wave greater than 50-60 feet over the NW Atlantic. Some of this wave action and energy will be directed toward the US coastline and this will worsen the beach erosion. Large wave setup will also trap water levels near the coast and worsen the coastal flooding threat.

On the extreme SW flank of the storm heavy wet snow will fall over parts of OH and WV with totals of 1-2 feet possible.

Power outages will likely last for 1-2 weeks or longer

Large scale evacuation orders for the New Jersey coast will be underway today with portions of New York also likely requiring evacuation due to the potential for coastal storm surge inundation.

[DaculaWeather]

Very awesome stuff. The shear magnitude of the system is astounding.

[DaculaWeather]

A ship report from 148 miles due east of Georgia, shows 60 mph winds and seas of 24 feet with a 6 second period. Wouldn't want to be on that ship.

[ALhurricane]

I see the question as to who will issue various products going forward. Mount Holly seems to have answered that question:

SANDY: FOR LATEST ADVISORIES/TRACK-INTENSITY/CONE OF WIND PROBABILITIES

AND EVENTUALLY PSURGE...PLS FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS.

SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL TRANSITIONING TO A

POWERFUL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALL HAZARDS FOR THE MOUNT HOLLY

AREA WILL BE GENERATED USING STANDARD NON TROPICAL PROCEDURES.

I am sure there is going to be a lot of discussion about this decision. There is not a clear cut answer, but in order to prevent confusion and maintain the best public awareness, the extension of tropical warnings may have been wise. Just my opinion and I don't envy them at all.

[TheWeatherPimp]

I am sure there is going to be a lot of discussion about this decision. There is not a clear cut answer, but in order to prevent confusion and maintain the best public awareness, the extension of tropical warnings may have been wise. Just my opinion and I don't envy them at all.

Yeah agreed. Definitely was surprising to see the decision.

[Ellinwood]

Governor Christie ‏@GovChristie

This morning I signed an EO declaring a state of emergency for all of NJ ahead of #Sandy.

Governor Christie @GovChristie

I am also calling for mandatory evac. starting at 4pm Sunday for barrier islands, from Sandy Hook South to Cape May, including AC casinos.

[Dosh]

I am sure there is going to be a lot of discussion about this decision. There is not a clear cut answer, but in order to prevent confusion and maintain the best public awareness, the extension of tropical warnings may have been wise. Just my opinion and I don't envy them at all.

The NHC director just tweeted that they will continue tropical warnings up the coast even after the transition. I think Mount Holly needs to recognize. New Jerseyans won't bat an eye at a high wind warning, we get one after every cold front in the fall.

[billgwx]

The NHC director just tweeted that they will continue tropical warnings up the coast even after the transition. I think Mount Holly needs to recognize. New Jerseyans won't bat an eye at a high wind warning, we get one after every cold front in the fall.

His tweet says exactly the opposite: "We're avoiding confusing switch from tropical to non-tropical warnings later."

https://twitter.com/NHCDirector

[tornadotony]

I am sure there is going to be a lot of discussion about this decision. There is not a clear cut answer, but in order to prevent confusion and maintain the best public awareness, the extension of tropical warnings may have been wise. Just my opinion and I don't envy them at all.

Agreed. How much of the public actually knows what a high wind warning means? For a storm like this, where it not being a hurricane at landfall isn't even certain yet, the tropical products need to be used. Those are the ones people relate to.

[DaculaWeather]

NOAA Gulfstream out on recon

[usedtobe]

The consensus for landfall is now in a pretty tight cluster over NJ. The strongest winds and storm surge are likely north fo the center in the gradient between the big high. If you see an unusually impressive surge forecast, post it here. The heaviest rains are expected to the south of the storm. That's unusual but that is where the strongest frontogenesis is located because of the cold air associated with the capturing upper low. Winds are a much tougher call south of the center because of the stability. The winds at 950 and 900 mb are plenty strong but how much of those winds will transfer down to the surface in gusts is tough. It may not be 80 percent but then within the rain bands, there probably will be some strong gusts.

[Srain]

The consensus for landfall is now in a pretty tight cluster over NJ. The strongest winds and storm surge are likely north fo the center in the gradient between the big high. If you see an unusually impressive surge forecast, post it here. The heaviest rains are expected to the south of the storm. That's unusual but that is where the strongest frontogenesis is located because of the cold air associated with the capturing upper low. Winds are a much tougher call south of the center because of the stability. The winds at 950 and 900 mb are plenty strong but how much of those winds will transfer down to the surface in gusts is tough. It may not be 80 percent but then within the rain bands, there probably will be some strong gusts.

Thanks for your thoughts, Wes. As an FYI to those following on the main page, we plan to shift our focus from the Hurricane Sandy-LIVE thread to this one if/when the hand off from the NHC to HPC takes place as Sandy potentially transitions from a tropical entity to post/extra tropical.

[Srain]

E-mail from Jeff Lindner (Pro Met Harris County, TX Flood Control District):

Unprecedented cyclone impact to the NE US and mid Atlantic over the next 72 hours will require a significant and coordinated local, state and federal response.

Life threatening record breaking storm surge event likely for northern New Jersey and New York Harbor including Long Island Sound, the Hudson River, and Raritan Bay.

Preparations to protect life and property must be completed by dark today…failure to comply with mandatory evacuation orders will place lives in danger.

Hurricane Sandy becomes the second largest tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin with tropical storm force winds extending outward 520 miles from the center and hurricane force winds 175 miles from the center.

Discussion:

Unfortunately, historic ingredients coming together exactly as forecasting models have predicted to bring a massive and highly destructive storm to the eastern 1/3^rd of the United States.

Hurricane Sandy moving to the NE this morning well off the North Carolina coast however tropical storm force winds and high seas are battering the eastern part of North Carolina and spreading northward toward the lower DELMARVA area. Latest recon passes indicate a central pressure down to 951mb or nearly equal to Hurricane Ike….only much larger in size. The wind field continues to expand outward as Sandy is increasingly coming under more mid latitude influences however deep convection is being maintained near the center of the system and Sandy remains a tropical cyclone at this time.

There is little spread now in the forecast track of Sandy and its post tropical “mega” storm with nearly all available meteorological tools showing the center of the system crossing the central New Jersey coast Monday evening near the time of high tide! The GFS is forecasting an absolutely astounding 53mb pressure fall in 6 hrs along the New Jersey coast Monday evening as this storm moves ashore.

Forecasted central pressures for the system as it makes landfall look to break historical pressure records which range from the mid to low 960’s for nearly all the major eastern US cities. For comparison, the current central pressure of Sandy would break all pressure records in this part of the country by 10-15mb. The current 951mb pressure is already significantly lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm: 972mb and the superstorm of 1993: 960mb both of which crippled the eastern US.

Impacts:

Storm Surge

A “worst case” track for life threatening and devastating storm surge is likely for northern New Jersey and New York City including Long Island and Long Island Sound. It is likely that Sandy will be moving onshore Monday evening very near the lunar high tide peak only worsening the potential for record breaking storm surge. Extra-tropical storm surge modeling is producing record values for the northern New Jersey coast at Sandy Hook and at the NYC Battery. The previous Sandy Hook, NJ record is 10.1 ft in 1960, and the forecast for Monday evening is a peak surge of 11-12 feet. Surge values at the western end of Long Island Sound pushing toward eastern New York City are on the order of 11-13 feet and 10-11 feet at “The Battery” in NYC. For comparison, Hurricane Irene last year produced about a 6 foot storm surge into western Long Island Sound and NYC. This is a perfect setup for a large and destructive sea water inundation event over the north New Jersey and New York coast. Areas that have never flooded before will likely flood with sea water in this event and it is likely that sea water will enter and flood the New York City subway system.

Wave watch III models and local SWAN modeling shows massive offshore waves of 25-40 ft breaking at 15 feet on the beaches. Dune protection will be completely destroyed and as the storm surge and high tide peak Monday evening, large and destructive wave action will be aimed into coastal structures….many structures will be battered to the point of total collapse or washed into the ocean. Surge and wave action will likely overtop the Jersey boardwalk and seawall protection especially along the northern New Jersey coast.

On a scale of 0-6, this storm has a 5.2 storm surge damage rating!

Winds:

Strong winds will begin to arrive on the coast this evening and spread inland on Monday with the greatest winds expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Sustained winds of 35-50mph with frequent gust to 65-80mph will occur from the DELMARVA To southern New England and well inland over much of the NE US, eastern Canada, and portions of the OH valley. Winds will batter this area for 20-48 hours producing a long duration event. Trees and power lines will give way over time and suspect that this storm will produce one of the largest if not the largest power outages ever in the US. It is likely that over 10-20 million persons will be without power as this storm passes. Power restoration and debris clean up will take weeks!

Rainfall:

Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches will be common over a large area of the NE US and mid-Atlantic resulting in major inland flooding. Isolated totals of 12 inches will be possible over the DELMARVA. Historically flood prone areas will likely experience flooding with rivers and creeks possibly recording major flooding levels.

Snow:

Heavy wet snow will be possible on the backside of the system over portions of WV and eastern OH as the cold air sweeps into the backside of the system. Totals of 12-18 inches will be possible, but due to the wet nature of the event, trees will likely be brought down due to the weight of the snow.

Significant and potentially long term disruptions in travel are likely!

[usedtobe]

I posted this in the mid atlantic thread. It has neat graphic of a model that predicts power outages based on wind gusts.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/cause-for-concern-the-7-most-alarming-hurricane-sandy-images/2012/10/28/615bbbfe-210b-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html#pagebreak

[DaculaWeather]

New York Harbor entrance:

Station 44065

NDBC

Location: 40.369N 73.703W

Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 15:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt

Significant Wave Height: 9.5 ft

Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec

Mean Wave Direction: ESE (119°)

Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in and falling

Air Temperature: 58.8 F

Dew Point: 54.5 F

Water Temperature: 61.2 F

[DaculaWeather]

Long Island buoy wave height

[Srain]

Afternoon e-maill from Jeff Lindner (Harris, TX County Flood Control District):

Incredible storm heading for the NE US.

Life threatening record storm surge flooding very likely. Significant inundation of NE New Jersey and portions of New York City likely causing incredible damage well into the billions of dollars

Portions of the impacted area will be uninhabitable for weeks.

Visible Image showing the size of Sandy….larger than the entire southern plains and the entire state of TX.

Link to extra-tropical surge forecast points:

http://www.nws.noaa....e=map&region=ne

Forecasted Water Rise at New York City (almost 11ft). Record is 10.5ft:

Forecasted Water Level Rise at Sandy Hook, NJ…almost 12 ft. Record is 10.1ft.

Tropical storm force winds extend from the US coast all the way past Bermuda.