weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's amazing look at the intensity forecasts for the tropical models... almost all of them show a big tick up in the storm's intensity around 84 hours. Have never seen that before around here. That interaction with the trough/Polar Jet and enhancement form the RF/LF jet quadrants are really going to do wonders with Sandy. Watching that process underdo on satellite is going to be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's clear that Kevin is nervous and preparing himself for a big bust. We know his game... this is how he plays it. I have a feeling after the 12z runs we'll have a much better idea of what's going to transpire... at least in terms of track. I sure hope so. I could see though the euro staying steadfast as well as the GFS. What would really suck is if the Euro went towards the GFS and the GFS went towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That interaction with the trough/Polar Jet and enhancement form the RF/LF jet quadrants are really going to do wonders with Sandy. Watching that process underdo on satellite is going to be amazing. Yeah the jet structure is ridiculous. Its almost impossible not to see a lot of strengthening if that jet structure happens. So much upper air divergence under those jet regions all conspiring over the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I was commenting on someone's comments indicating folks in SNE are letting their guard down re the Euro's shift to the south...via the NHC's track ..I know they (NHC) can't do it..but I would expand that cone northward into New England until they are sure that is the track..the cane isn't even up in that direction yet..waaaay to soon for folks to say oh Sandy's gone south..not gonna hit us...to me that is irresponsible for the NHC..cover your basis and all before you sound the all clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I sure hope so. I could see though the euro staying steadfast as well as the GFS. What would really suck is if the Euro went towards the GFS and the GFS went towards the Euro That would actually make the forecast easier. If they both hold serve, it will be very tough to figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's clear that Kevin is nervous and preparing himself for a big bust. We know his game... this is how he plays it. I have a feeling after the 12z runs we'll have a much better idea of what's going to transpire... at least in terms of track. especially since beginning of phasing is within 72 hours now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 She defintiely looks a little lopsided on the latest sattelite images. I also expected to see more cloud tops building around the center but maybe that comes later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is bad Bad as in...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have a couple questions here that might be difficult to answer given the lack of historical precident here but they've been on my mind. 1. Typically at this latitude, the heavy rains are west of the storm, strong winds to the right. As it becomes extra tropical, does that no longer apply as the wind field expands? 2. As an offshoot to my last question on rain, as it becomes extra-tropical and with the jetstream and cold front lurking nearby, what are the chances of a conveyer belt of rain developing on the east side which could bring very large rain amounts to New England assuming the current track into NJ holds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I know these are GFS based products and the fact it undergoes x-tropical transition needs to be considered....but this is interesting. http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well 06z NAM is into LI. That settles it. To bad its not the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's amazing look at the intensity forecasts for the tropical models... almost all of them show a big tick up in the storm's intensity around 84 hours. Have never seen that before around here. Just to discuss what the 06 GFS shows. That is possible the worst case scenario for LI sound flooding I have seen yet. Just piles water in and then does not let it escape, south coast of RI with a fetch from hell too. Interesting scenario if this comes North. Much much different ball game than a slam Euro in the Del, obviously bad there but its surge and out there. On the GFS scenario it is multiple tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That would actually make the forecast easier. If they both hold serve, it will be very tough to figure this out. Actually thinking about that I see what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Geez, I hope this doesn't get deleted. There is no argument here. It's an open forum to discussion. With such disparity in models why can't people take the middle ground. Benchmark track gradual turn NNW. Only the good lord of your choice knows how this will shake out. It was the GEM I thought had a tendency to over amp and this model has LF in Nova Scotia. I dont't know how much weight is given for each parameter in any said model. But does it matter. Maybe someone who studies this can chime in. Nobody can influence the track and intensity by wishing. The reanalysis on this will be fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's clear that Kevin is nervous and preparing himself for a big bust. We know his game... this is how he plays it. I have a feeling after the 12z runs we'll have a much better idea of what's going to transpire... at least in terms of track. You And me with LF on LI, together forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Then when you include all tropical models.. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al182012.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GEFS is north at 6z. Did we talk about that yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You And me with LF on LI, together forever LOL, ACY to ern LI still game. Too early to get specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GEFS is north at 6z. Did we talk about that yet? Yeah a little south of the op into sandy hook or just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I know these are GFS based products and the fact it undergoes x-tropical transition needs to be considered....but this is interesting. http://www.sfwmd.gov...ane model plots North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This thing will have gale force winds like 300+ miles NE of the center. No question. But the core of strongest winds I think are within 150-200 miles NE of the center. Seems to be the idea when looking at the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah a little south of the op into sandy hook or just south. That is a concerning ens mean. Looks like a Monday night deal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 North The 06 GFS run is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 06 GFS run is epic. If that were to happen, there would be a boat show on the main line of Amtrak. A lot of boats are still in the water at local marinas and I wonder if the current official track is having people keep their boats in the water longer than they should. If the cone comes north, there will be a 48-hour rush at marinas like we have never seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That is a concerning ens mean. Looks like a Monday night deal too. Anything into nrn NJ and LI is horrific for people by the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Then when you include all tropical models.. http://derecho.math....ls/al182012.png 2 OTS 4 LI over a dozen between NC and Jersey? Tough to count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Now we're talking. This is what we should be duscussing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At this time frame, everything considered. I would pick Atlantic City as my LF point, on the record. At this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Euro wind product I'm looking at does have some 50 knotters in the SOund but has 15-25 knots for all of inland SNE. lol. It makes you appreciate the simplicity of the 1938 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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