Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the euro is right..it will not be a big deal for you. Not a big deal. I'll side with Gibbs on this.Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'll side with Gibbs on this.Sorry If the euro is right for you. Not the coast of CT where it will be obviously worse. My gut is north of NHC fwiw..even with those srly tropical models (which is concerning). I like closer to ACY for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like Sandy is working into some pretty strong shear and will remain in this sort of environment so it will be interesting to see how she evolves over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 06z GEFS intrl Central NJ or a hair north of that. The tropical models are discouraging and I don't like seeing that and the euro..makes me think south. However, I think Will and Ryan just said it and we mentioned it yesterday....any little deviation to the right as it turns NW would have big implications due to the geographic layout of the east coast, so that needs to be watched. Those GEFS start pretty far north and then take a pretty sharp turn...looks like near Sandy Hook or even a shade north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the euro is right for you. Not the coast of CT where it will be obviously worse. My gut is north of NHC fwiw..even with those srly tropical models (which is concerning). I like closer to ACY for now. Yeah using the euro besides the coast of CT...RI/SE MA this solution would be mundane for inland areas. I think we would still see some strong gusts and isolated damage but nothing extreme at all...it would be areas to our south and west where the major trouble is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Those GEFS start pretty far north and then take a pretty sharp turn...looks like near Sandy Hook or even a shade north. Yeah they are far north. Any little deviation and it means a lot down the road where it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy looks like it has two centers...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the euro is right for you. Not the coast of CT where it will be obviously worse. My gut is north of NHC fwiw..even with those srly tropical models (which is concerning). I like closer to ACY for now. I like W Li to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Euro wind product I'm looking at does have some 50 knotters in the SOund but has 15-25 knots for all of inland SNE. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I like W Li to NYC I would love that, but I don't know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah they are far north. Any little deviation and it means a lot down the road where it hits. Alot will depend on the exact positioning and timing of the trough as well. If the trough is a bit faster and ends up being further east that would limit exactly how far back to the north and west Sandy gets tucked in but the trough being further back to the west would give a better window for it to take a sharper cut back north and west. Would also be huge in where the best baroclinic forcing/heaviest rain sets up as well but this appears as if it will be west of SNE regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A lot of people are letting their guard down now in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy has two features. You can see the exposed center east of Freeport Bahamas, but a second maybe mid level center is way ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like a LLC northern tip of Bahama's and a mid level circulation to the ene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that will happen if this is called a run of the mill nor'easter Agreed. It's not. Problem is you can't get a reasonable approach. People either hear KATRINA! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES. or "meh, wear a rain coat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well 06z NAM is into LI. That settles it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Kevin is in full hype mode. This storm is everything to him, too bad he doesn't live in coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Its kind of scary just thinking about what is coming to some part of the northeast.. Just heard that 21 people died from the storm so far and as much as I hate to say it more will... As much as I would love to see it come up here it makes me wonder if it is worth it when you know theres going to be alot of people affected in a bad way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well, regardless it looks as though the coastal flooding into the western sound is going to be a very big deal and in the end the only thing that concerns me. Looks like fresh water flooding will be well sw actually looking forward to the wind aspect. I just wonder when evacuations will start for coastal communities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Kevin is in full hype mode. This storm is everything to him, too bad he doesn't live in coastal NJ. not really, I fully understand that other options are there. Bit I also realistic to realize how bad the winds will be even if it does go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 not really, I fully understand that other options are there. Bit I also realistic to realize how bad the winds will be even if it does go south. There probably will be gusts over 50 near the CT coast with Sandy taking a euro track..just don't think you'll see anything more then 40 or 50mph gust. Whoopee if that happens. Obviously different if it is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's really difficult to really portray this to people around here. With such open solutions still on the table we are closing in on impact and you have to give people enough time to make the proper preparations so it's probably best to hit this on the harder side. Doing this though the public goes into a panic and everyone flips out which is so unnecessary. All people need to do is just stock up on extra food, water, batteries, flashlights, candles, etc...but people go absolutely insane and shop like they will never be able to get to stores again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There probably will be gusts over 50 near the CT coast with Sandy taking a euro track..just don't think you'll see anything more then 40 or 50mph gust. Whoopee if that happens. Obviously different if it is further north. Thats where we disagree. Good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Why even bother about arguing over what happens on the Euro's solution...it's probably not going to track/make landfall exactly as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I were a betting kinda guy...I would not let my guard down in New England..really not a smart move...We are still 3 days out..alot can change..Very powerful storm,exspansive wind field...no matter what the Euro says...This morning's GFS run is still showing a decent hit to New England..just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I were a betting kinda guy...I would not let my guard down in New England..really not a smart move...We are still 3 days out..alot can change..Very powerful storm,exspansive wind field...no matter what the Euro says...This morning's GFS run is still showing a decent hit to New England..just saying. It's way too early to let the guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I were a betting kinda guy...I would not let my guard down in New England..really not a smart move...We are still 3 days out..alot can change..Very powerful storm,exspansive wind field...no matter what the Euro says...This morning's GFS run is still showing a decent hit to New England..just saying. I certainly wouldn't let my guard down either...there are still several options on the table here and one of those has us getting hit very hard so until we see this solution get knocked off the table nobody's guard should be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There's a difference between not over hyping the storm and letting your guard down. Overhyping is just as bad...since nobody will pay attention to your warnings in the future if you constantly overhype. That is a balancing act you need to play as a meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's amazing look at the intensity forecasts for the tropical models... almost all of them show a big tick up in the storm's intensity around 84 hours. Have never seen that before around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What a disaster It's clear that Kevin is nervous and preparing himself for a big bust. We know his game... this is how he plays it. I have a feeling after the 12z runs we'll have a much better idea of what's going to transpire... at least in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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