Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I missing something or is the Euro run far enough south where the worst surge is not maximized in NYC and the south coast? Aren't the winds 15-25 MPH less on the coast and 20-30 inland? doesn't the Euro make landfall in Delaware not NJ? again from Mt Holly, which has responsibility for NJ: COASTAL FLOOD...USING CURRENT SLOWLY INCREASING DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH GFS ETSS AND NAM RELATED CBOFS/DBOFS PREDICTORS WE ALREADY HAVE A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLES WITH APPROXIMATE 2 FOOT SURGES /NEW NOV 4 HIGHER CRITERIA NOTWITHSTANDING/ AND THEN A MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE MIDDAY MONDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS LOWERING PRESSURE AND A POUNDING NE WIND OF 50 TO 60 KT BUILDS A 4 FOOT SURGE WITH SEAS OF AT LEAST 15 FEET EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE WORST FLOODING WILL BE NORTH OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE WESTWARD MOVING CYCLONE...EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...ESPECIALLY MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES WHERE THE RISK OF MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY LINGER FOR THE LATE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOW SEVERE THE FLOODING AT SANDY HOOK...FROM THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT IT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO BE SURE...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FLOOD OF RECORD THERE...CERTAINLY A TOP 5 EVENT WITH THE WORST SO FAR BEING 10.1 FT MLLW IN HURRICANE DONNA SEPT 12 1960 FOLLOWED BY IRENES 9.8 FT LAST AUGUST 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 People who let their guard down because it is not a named storm are fools. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hunchbacks favorite met Joe Joyce @JoeJoyceWBZ This may be a very catastrophic and destructive storm for all of southern New England and neighboring localities. B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 People who let their guard down because it is not a named storm are fools. Unbelievable. I just eblasted the entire staff, hopefully I was a little hyper too. Anyways for the folks who want a quick look at overnight models and 10M wind speeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Again though, it is important if you live on the coast to beware of timing of storm angle of approach/location and timing of LLJ in combo with tides. GFS LLJ and high tides would be a major problem everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am confused and wondering why Sandy is taking that left hand hook into S NJ after last night's runs..and yes its true,folks will let their guard down. To me the models still have no idea on a solution on what the outcome will be ..The Euro has basically brainwashed the NHC on the track into southern new jersey,delmarva...seriously..wrong...Other models such as the GFS brings Sandy into New York City...I just don't know what to make of this.,..NHC cone of I don't know where to place the dam cone shift further south,will make people in New England back off and that could be deadly...whole thing smells of a Euro bust and a GFS win...very complex situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hurricane Sandy, welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hopefully NYC is preparing for something other than Irene's joke of a surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Has been and will be a major point of discussion with this storm: how to alert a public that has rarely if ever seen a hybrid storm like this. Continue to call it a Cat 1 Hurricane prior to landfall, even though it will not be a hurricane? Call it a tropical storm, even though its impacts may surpass the recent public memory of hurricane Irene? NHC seems to be hedging, on the one hand weakening to a Tropical Storm now based on max winds, but on the other hand calling for this to become a Cat 1 Hurricane before landfall, perhaps for the sake of public awareness. latest vortex message has it dropping 8mb to 961mb in the last six hours with 72mph surface winds. It may be re-titled a hurricane at 11am. Edit: That was fast LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hopefully NYC is preparing for something other than Irene's joke of a surge. Second highest surge on record in many NY Bight locations . . . Some joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hopefully NYC is preparing for something other than Irene's joke of a surge. When you have Upton saying 2-3' idkkkk how people would prepare, that's way to low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Are they really not going to issue tropical products north of the TS Warning? What a terrible decision, imo. Total lack of coordination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Second highest surge on record in many NY Bight locations . . . Some joke. For much of the city, it was not a big deal..put it into perspective. This will be much worse potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Has been and will be a major point of discussion with this storm: how to alert a public that has rarely if ever seen a hybrid storm like this. Continue to call it a Cat 1 Hurricane prior to landfall, even though it will not be a hurricane? Call it a tropical storm, even though its impacts may surpass the recent public memory of hurricane Irene? NHC seems to be hedging, on the one hand weakening to a Tropical Storm now based on max winds, but on the other hand calling for this to become a Cat 1 Hurricane before landfall, perhaps for the sake of public awareness. Geezus make that 5, just got 2 emails back saying you better listen to the radio it has been downgraded, oh well hope they are ready at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It will be a hell of a storm, just not sure of worse case scenario here. I would be concerned SW coastal CT and LI sound. Yeah should be pretty fun. I'm really curious about what winds are realized at the surface. It could go Kevin's way it it could be speeds that we regularly see with strong CAA after a winter storm. Another interesting aspect is I think the trees are likely more used to strong winds from the west or northwest....bare trees may be able to handle 60mph out of the NW but might be weaker to that type of east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 When you have Upton saying 2-3' idkkkk how people would prepare, that's way to low That's because of the angle of approach and winds. Look at the srfc wind speeds. It will be NE for a while which will help areas except LI sound. However, as it heads into NJ, that's when winds go south and potentially pile water into the city in a hurry. If this coincides with high tide, it would be very bad imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Geezus make that 5, just got 2 emails back saying you better listen to the radio it has been downgraded, oh well hope they are ready at least. Lol, tell them it's been upgraded again already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am confused and wondering why Sandy is taking that left hand hook into S NJ after last night's runs..and yes its true,folks will let their guard down. To me the models still have no idea on a solution on what the outcome will be ..The Euro has basically brainwashed the NHC on the track into southern new jersey,delmarva...seriously..wrong...Other models such as the GFS brings Sandy into New York City...I just don't know what to make of this.,..NHC cone of I don't know where to place the dam cone shift further south,will make people in New England back off and that could be deadly...whole thing smells of a Euro bust and a GFS win...very complex situation. Many of the hurricane models also have an Euro-esque track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A bit shocked to see the pressure drop like that, I know it is already getting some assistance from the jet streak but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So we'll just have to see where the models track, but good consensus for ctrl/srn NJ since yesterday. I still like my earlier call from yesterday in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I watched some Boston mets last night and was surprised at some of them downplaying the event since the track was into NJ. Bouchard had a lame "strike map" graphic that showed most of New England in the less likely camp of experiencing a landfall. What purpose does that map serve for us? All that matters is the strength and location of that LLJ and how much we're able to mix down. Even though Noyes has been in passive weenie mode he at least got this point across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A bit shocked to see the pressure drop like that, I know it is already getting some assistance from the jet streak but still. More convection and even a ring trying to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hey guys, and maybe this should go in the banter thread so move it if need be, but looking at the wind forecast that Mt. Holly has out for all of Jersey, even down to the coast, it seems a bit absurd to me. Right now, they have High Wind Watches out for there area, and the wording is pretty soft. 35-45 MPH, up to 65 MPH gusts, and that includes all the way down to the coast. To me, that seems dangerously conservative if Sandy is going to slam into central/southern NJ. Given that BOX is talking about up to 100 MPH gusts in SNE, I can't see the justification for what Mt Holly is putting out. Wouldn't it be far more realistic to put in the wording 50-60 MPH sustained winds and 85 MPH gusts, ESPECIALLY on the coast. They make this sound like a run of the mill storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow we are tanking... 000 URNT12 KNHC 271208 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/11:50:30Z B. 28 deg 46 min N 076 deg 48 min W C. 850 mb 1055 m D. 67 kt E. 223 deg 70 nm F. 315 deg 91 kt G. 225 deg 93 nm H. 957 mb I. 14 C / 1523 m J. 23 C / 1523 m K. 17 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 1518A SANDY OB 05 MAX FL WIND 91 KT SW QUAD 11:19:30Z ; EDIT: vs. 0Z Euro 968 mb for 12z Sat 0Z GFS 972 mb for 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 one thing to watch for over the interior...there could be a coastal front...with locations to the west of it kind of saying wtf where's my wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 one thing to watch for over the interior...there could be a coastal front...with locations to the west of it kind of saying wtf where's my wind Ray lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I watched some Boston mets last night and was surprised at some of them downplaying the event since the track was into NJ. Bouchard had a lame "strike map" graphic that showed most of New England in the less likely camp of experiencing a landfall. What purpose does that map serve for us? All that matters is the strength and location of that LLJ and how much we're able to mix down. Even though Noyes has been in passive weenie mode he at least got this point across. He always does that. I don't call him Poo-Poo Pete for nothing. He also said in a tweet that he would shave his head if this phases, Well, time to pay up..but he is bald anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 None of the models, even the ones that went crazy with the pressure, had the storm strengthening like this at this point. Unclear of the relevance of this deepening now in regards to the capture later. Could the pressure rise again soon or we in the long term warm seclusion deepening process prior to landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 He always does that. I don't call him Poo-Poo Pete for nothing. He also said in a tweet that he would shave his head if this phases, Well, time to pay up..but he is bald anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I watched some Boston mets last night and was surprised at some of them downplaying the event since the track was into NJ. Bouchard had a lame "strike map" graphic that showed most of New England in the less likely camp of experiencing a landfall. What purpose does that map serve for us? All that matters is the strength and location of that LLJ and how much we're able to mix down. Even though Noyes has been in passive weenie mode he at least got this point across. Yeah, I flipped between all the local and Boston 11pm broadcasts and I was shocked by the mellow attitudes. Bouchard was pretty much meh about Sandy for SNE but nbd is his thing and sometimes he scores the coup. He does generally stand by his forecasts and readily admits when they fail. Still the Boston mets should really be warning coastal residents with stronger wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.