Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro perhaps goes a bit more in the way of the GFS with regards to track/landfall being further north. The Euro seems like it will be correct all along with the phasing occurring south of SNE but at the same time the Euro just may be too amped and too phase happy giving us the more southerly/westerly landfall. The GFS, while certainly there with the phasing is a bit less intense and may be more realistic. I believe we are closing in on LF between mid NJ to mid LI, unless the models are way off. We will see..Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I believe we are closing in on LF between mid NJ to mid LI, unless the models are way off. We will see.. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Yeah I would think so as well...an even with this that this doesn't tell us a great deal, especially when it comes to the damaging wind potential and who experiences the strongest winds. The wind aspect of this will be very tough to pinpoint until just several hours out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EC faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 @96 Chesapeake Bay-DC-Ohio by 120hr EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Appears as if the NHC doesn't have this going post-tropical anymore...didn't notice this on the 11 PM update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO refuses to budge... model war! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can't believe the spread between the two main models... crazy... 4 days away, and no idea what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can't believe the spread between the two main models... crazy... 4 days away, and no idea what is going to happen. Euro has been incredibly consistent for how many model runs now? That's where my money would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has been incredibly consistent for how many model runs now? That's where my money would be. yup apparently ridging was a tad weaker this run but central us energy was faster and still sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 euro may cause an upgrade to hurr warning palm beaches north to central fl coast. hr 24 looks like it sittin within 10 miles of WPB,FL anyone have high resoluton location euro has takes this significantly closer near SE US coast practically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 euro may cause an upgrade to hurr warning palm beaches north to central fl coast. hr 24 looks like it sittin within 10 miles of WPB,FL anyone have high resoluton location This is why the whole solution of being so far SW for landfall may be wrong, that would be one hell of a 24 hour track error for NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is why the whole solution of being so far SW for landfall may be wrong, that would be one hell of a 24 hour track error for NHC. Are you favoring a gfs track or a blend or what? Although I was not home, the quick things I read about the GFS sounded straight up scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How can it be near WPB at 0Z Saturday when it is almost up to that latitude already...east of MIA now.. Something is amiss..... euro may cause an upgrade to hurr warning palm beaches north to central fl coast. hr 24 looks like it sittin within 10 miles of WPB,FL anyone have high resoluton location euro has takes this significantly closer near SE US coast practically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is scarily consistent, there were very few differences at all between 12z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is scarily consistent, there were very few differences at all between 12z and 00z. when does the euro ensemble come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 when does the euro ensemble come out? I haven't been awake for any of the morning Euro ensembles, so I wouldn't be able to tell you exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy is looking fugly this am. otoh, still pretty neat to wake up to this on Oct 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM batters southern CT/RI/SE MA with some pretty intense winds. Seems like the NAM is taking a GFS-like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The nam is useless with track, though at this point it is probably useful for some of the background features and noise and comparisons/trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Friday morning and still 2 camps..thought the farther sw one seems to be fading somewhat esp based on ens guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Noyes has 80+ gusts for most of CT,RI and SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Friday morning and still 2 camps..thought the farther sw one seems to be fading somewhat esp based on ens guidance I seriously hope the 12z guidance can really narrow down the area of landfall...the spread right now is so huge and it's still up in the air as to how extreme the impacts will be here (besides coastal flooding)...the GFS/NAM solutions would certainly give us a great deal of wind potential. The Euro though does bring some intense winds into southern CT and especially RI/SE MA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I seriously hope the 12z guidance can really narrow down the area of landfall...the spread right now is so huge and it's still up in the air as to how extreme the impacts will be here (besides coastal flooding)...the GFS/NAM solutions would certainly give us a great deal of wind potential. The Euro though does bring some intense winds into southern CT and especially RI/SE MA as well. I wouldn't focus on exactly what the models show for winds and where. We've never seen anything like this in recorded history..so none oif us..mets included have a good handle on what will ultimately happen. Suffice it to say..the entire NE corridor from Philly north is in for something special in some way shape or form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM ens...Almost dead on with GFS/GEFS http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EC ens were similar to 12z with LF into S NJ late Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Honestly I wouldn't focus on exactly what the models show for winds and where. We've never seen anything like this in recorded history..so none oif us..mets included have a good handle on what will ultimately happen. Suffice it to say..the entire NE corridor from Philly north is in for something special in some way shape or form Well we need at least some sort of guidance...sure the models aren't going to be perfect but it's what we have and we just have to utilize them the best we can. The wind potential will be quite intriguing b/c with cooler SST's and cooler airmass (temps 50's to low 60's) you have to wonder if we'll end up seeing inversions above the surface which could really impact the level of the winds that mix down. Anyways though I think we should prepare for the possibility of very strong winds as well as widespread power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EC ens were similar to 12z with LF into S NJ late Mon night. Just trying to think back but in the end didn't the Euro end up being too amped with Irene and had it too far west or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM ens...Almost dead on with GFS/GEFS http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif The GGEM op backs into Downeast ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Honestly when I saw last night's run of the GFS..it was insane with the 938 range near the tip of long island..this morning its going in south of NJ....seems like the NHC is siding with the Euro this morning and its not even touching SNE...this model mayhem is nuts...what ever happens happens I guess..It is what it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Maxon on Ryan's station very dire wording this morning..and that guy is more anti hype than Ryan. He mentioned things like" something most of us have never seen" and he brought up 1938. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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