CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro is like a 2z landfall in Cape May County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 wtf...I guess the "trend" looks gone to me now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The Euro says FU to the GFS. They're not THAT far apart for a 72 hour forecast. Both have NJ lol. Euro is maybe a tick... and I mean a tick... south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not much movement at all from 0z Tuesday to 0z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So we're down to about a 100 mile wide envelope of solutions ...Cape May to Sandy Hook. Euro is like a 2z landfall in Cape May County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I knew somone would mention it. Common term in The UK where they can cause a lot of damage. The GFLD and HWRF actually show it if you look carefully. There is a sudden temporary increase in winds for a couple frames with little prssure fall. It stays offshore though. There are common terms because they are so frequently incredible destructive wind producers with massive economic impact out there. From a dynamic standpoint, the true sting jet is obviously on the south side of the storm where the tropopause fold/dry airstream descend to surface. The GFS solution, with that northern jet like feature, is interesting. Not even sure what is truly causing it, but it seems to be gargantuan amounts of convective induced LHR along/above the ridiculous "warm front" (if you want to call it that). Should a feature like that develop it would be European windstorm like damage even as the storm moves inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The Euro says FU to the GFS. You're still too far south. Forky isn't though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ryan, do you think we're starting to move away from something catastrophic and just toward something that's "bad". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro, 943.6 mb at 72 hrs, looks to be Southern Jersey. anddd it initiated 6mb too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think NYC is the spot despite the Euro...everything else has trended there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 tendency for warm seclusions northern parts of ocean basins and slightly more likely on the "east' ends. Yes the sting jets are the "best" in Europe. Speeds often tend to be close to the 925-850 winds. Recalled having more than a few vessels that we were routing get caught up in warm seclusions. Yeah I think that is a pretty good general approximation for the types of wind speeds they can produce. There is a recent paper floating around out there that tries to distinguish true sting jets from more typical sting jet like features seen in more typical intense occluded cyclones using various measures such as static stability, CSI, etc. In general, not surprisingly, the lowest static stability and highest cyclone growth rates/intensification favor intense sting jets. This cyclone will have plenty of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think NYC is the spot despite the Euro...everything else has trended there... eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think Euro would destroy most of NJ up to NYC and strongly effect the south coast of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro is like a 2z landfall in Cape May County. Not far from Long Island high tide if I see it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like it's starting to wrap some convection back over the center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 eh? are those the tropical models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If I remember correctly worst case for nyc is a nj landfall .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 yeah, ryan. I think that intensifying, structural improvements on the models are legit. Shear begins to dropping again after 24 hours and actually gets down to about 20 kt on the north wall of the GS, where the SHIPS also has some slightly intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 are those the tropical models? yeah, but even still...the gfs trended more west...the euro went further south. what came north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 yeah, but even still...the gfs trended more west...the euro went further south. what came north? I may have misunderstood, but if you go back and look many of the Mets were saying that the tropical models may not be the best guide given that Sandy may be going ET... Therefore, the GFS, NAM, GGEM, NOGAPS all were around NYC I thought...I could be wrong...probably am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On this angle of approach it doesn't traverse colder water for that long after passing the north wall of the GS. This is the devastating SE to NW track that I always wondered about, but never saw in my lifetime. yeah, ryan. I think that intensifying, structural improvements on the models are legit. Shear begins to dropping again after 24 hours and actually gets down to about 20 kt on the north wall of the GS, where the SHIPS also has some slightly intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM is definitely not as far north and east as the 18z run...but still pretty far north overall. Looks like 956mb near Statan Island...maybe Sandy Hook...hard to tell...but that general area. That would be pretty devastating for much of NYC and SNE. Time to bail on TC based models perhaps? Save perhaps BAM based ones. Yes it is further west, but less of a turn. End result is a turn into NYC...lol. Same result but less of a turn. Lots of wiggles. I think for tonight NYC has to be the bullseye for this event. I think that may still change but it looks good (or bad) depending on how you look at it. Right into JFK. Gfs is a disaster for NYC and SNE. Much much faster. I think the faster/straighter track is most likely. This is what I was referring to - I probably misunderstood though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like it's starting to wrap some convection back over the center of circulation. it's close and lookin a bit better love the night time shortwave ir loop , you can pick out the center so easiily http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-swir-long.htmlhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-swir-long.html looks like last half of frame's she finally pickin up the pace (like 10-12 mph or so) i know nhc has her a bit slower but i think that's a longer term average movent, last few hours she movin faster still very interested as HM said (unless he updated his thinking) on wether the western lobe of the giant N atl low can weaken part of ridge temporarily on sunday letting sandy get a tad further east then modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah I think that is a pretty good general approximation for the types of wind speeds they can produce. There is a recent paper floating around out there that tries to distinguish true sting jets from more typical sting jet like features seen in more typical intense occluded cyclones using various measures such as static stability, CSI, etc. In general, not surprisingly, the lowest static stability and highest cyclone growth rates/intensification favor intense sting jets. This cyclone will have plenty of both. Can someone break down what a "sting jet" is for this weenie? I wanna be the first one on my block with a conceptual understanding of what will surely be the new weenie catchphrase term. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not at all, the GFS even though it trended a little bit w would still have been really bad for the region, I just thought the euro would come north i guess. It's still pretty dangerous looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 yes what is the area that looks most likely to be effected by the "sting jet" in a SNJ-CNJ landfall , i think BI is one of the top mets on this board and this seems like something to focus on for highest damage from winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 One of my concerns here is with a faster than expected landfall. Currently, it looks like NHC has a late Monday night/early Tuesday landfall. The model guidance has been trending a little faster, showing landfall by at least Monday evening or the early overnight hours at least from most models I've seen. I don't know the history of all significant NE US hurricanes, although the 1938 LI Express was faster than expected and if I remember correctly Irene was faster than expected as well. While I'm siding with a Monday evening/early night landfall for now, should this be the case with Sandy as well, I would not be surprised if she makes landfall by Monday evening or even the late afternoon. This would be a potentially dangerous situation for those not prepared in time for the worst of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 yes what is the area that looks most likely to be effected by the "sting jet" in a SNJ-CNJ landfall , i think BI is one of the top mets on this board and this seems like something to focus on for highest damage from winds I believe the sting jet is generally located on the SW side of the low near the tip of the comma head. The Euro solution seems to imply something like that, with 60-70 kt sustained winds just south of the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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