ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 further west and a little weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Any chance this is bust like Irene? Like we wake up monday to a breeze and minor gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 my weaker comment might have been wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Baraclinicity @ work. It's interesting that NHC sees a hurricane strengthening prior to being formally designated ET: INIT 27/0300Z 27.7N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is it just me or is the GFS still moving North at hour 69? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is it just me or is the GFS still moving North at hour 69? Yes it is further west, but less of a turn. End result is a turn into NYC...lol. Same result but less of a turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Baraclinicity @ work. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just gets there faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like C NJ at 72... perhaps NC NJ at 952 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yes it is further west, but less of a turn. End result is a turn into NYC...lol. Same result but less of a turn. sub 960?Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think we can put that abrupt 90 degree turn west idea to rest - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS initialized 10 mb too high with the sfc pressure. LF is similar to the NAM in the low 950's, far SW tip of LI heading just south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like C NJ at 72... perhaps NC NJ at 952 mb. NC NJ. lolUsing IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yes it is further west, but less of a turn. End result is a turn into NYC...lol. Same result but less of a turn. Lots of wiggles. I think for tonight NYC has to be the bullseye for this event. I think that may still change but it looks good (or bad) depending on how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ugh:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS has a more realistic look to the left hook, not quite as extreme as prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Right into JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 . NC NJ. lol Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. North Central NJ... def south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still makes landfall very near to NYC because it does not take extreme left turn. Honest this solution is not at all very far fetched and to me is the most realistic model run we have seen. Finally a model that does not have a 90 degree left turn. Instantweathermaps says 952 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 between 18z... and 0z So far aside from the low placement itself the block almost looks a little weaker to me...i may be wrong. maybe it won't get tugged SO hard west and it won't really be that much different LF location from 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well we said this and it still had the hook back, but I think the less violent hook back seems more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 further west and a little weaker? It is actually several mb stronger than the 18Z run. It looks as if it is more completely phasing with the upper level system and thus becoming an even stronger system. However, because it moves inland quicker it does not have enough time to bottom out over water as the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 anyone think euro into NYC on tonights run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 At 81 hours its sitting over me just south of BUF lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Actually it's almost identical to where the NAM made landfsall, just about an hour or two earlier. Also does not sink southwest after landfall like 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yes it is further west, but less of a turn. End result is a turn into NYC...lol. Same result but less of a turn. Also gets there faster cause it takes a straighter line... I think the 00z has sped up 6 hrs from 18z and 12hrs from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow, not only is there less of a turn left...the sotrm accelerates between 66 and 72 hours right into NYC region...that is a horrible situation for the south coast of RI/Narragansett area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well we said this and it still had the hook back, but I think the less violent hook back seems more reasonable. Agreed. think it gets nailed down pretty good between 11 and 1 Saturday am/pm. Tough deal for LI and NYC and coastal CT. Windy here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z 00z likely culprit for the less extreme hook scenario. Block eased SLIGHTLY to my eyes. maybe just enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It certainly scoots west quickly... landfall at 72ish... near BUF by 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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