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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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I'm surprised that ...as far as I am aware, I am the only one that is pounding the astro-tides with this. That NJ ...ACY landfall of the NAM is similar to the NOGAPS and both implicated a huge storm surge into the NY Bite area. Last I check, there are no seawall protection into the lower Mahhattan area.

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CoastalWx....my thinking on this is.....we know without a doubt the average NHC error at 72 hours is 124.4, 96h is 166.5. Knowing that, and with the understanding that there has been track drift over the last 12-36 hours I expect NYC is going to be close to the landfall location, if not LI. With the sharp angle of assault from the ESE it's going to be tough to pinpoint but I think esp the NHC track is coming north another 100 or so miles in time. JMHO.

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I'm surprised that ...as far as I am aware, I am the only one that is pounding the astro-tides with this. That NJ ...ACY landfall of the NAM is similar to the NOGAPS and both implicated a huge storm surge into the NY Bite area. Last I check, there are no seawall protection into the lower Mahhattan area.

Was wondering that myself.

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Was wondering this myself. Are the tropical models out of their wheelhouse so to speak once Sandy begins to transition to ET? Not trying to wishcast this thing north...seriously curious they should be given as much weight in this scenario.

is sandy not transitioning already?

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based on 0z early guidance and seeing the nam I think we see a massive shift. I mean at least way south of LI and at least C NJ.

Could be, but until we see an established motion which comes after 12z Saturday I think models are going to struggle. We have a disjointed system right now that's wobbling around with no particular direction. Model nightmare.
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I'm surprised that ...as far as I am aware, I am the only one that is pounding the astro-tides with this. That NJ ...ACY landfall of the NAM is similar to the NOGAPS and both implicated a huge storm surge into the NY Bite area. Last I check, there are no seawall protection into the lower Mahhattan area.

Well in addition...Belt Parkway in Southern Brooklyn would likely be inundated with water

this was during Irene

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Could be, but until we see an established motion which comes after 12z Saturday I think models are going to struggle. We have a disjointed system right now that's wobbling around with no particular direction. Model nightmare.

fair... we've seen quite a few solutions as to what it would do off the florida coast and the sit and spin and move north was not modeled (we all saw the near FL hit) I still think that we are finally getting a track, nam didn't shift south because of a bad ingest or change in strength. It was a general resolution of the major players that finally are getting better resolved, that block is stronger than was progged.

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fair... we've seen quite a few solutions as to what it would do off the florida coast and the sit and spin and move north was not modeled (we all saw the near FL hit) I still think that we are finally getting a track, nam didn't shift south because of a bad ingest or change in strength. It was a general resolution of the major players that finally are getting better resolved, that block is stronger than was progged.

and to be fair if 0z take this up to eastern LI I think we all have to accept that prep. needs to take place for coastal flooding wherever it is modeled as a consensus. I just think we are going to narrow the cone significantly tonight based on time until arrival and increased obs.

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NAM has 70 knots sustained at 800 feet over your head, lol. 90 knots at 900mb. The LLJ on the northeast side of this thing is hellecious.

I am fully expecting especially along the coast to see you guys get gusts up there that'll match whatever we get down here if that or something like it were to verify.

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and to be fair if 0z take this up to eastern LI I think we all have to accept that prep. needs to take place for coastal flooding wherever it is modeled as a consensus. I just think we are going to narrow the cone significantly tonight based on time until arrival and increased obs.

Agreed...regardless of the 0z suite I personally won't be doing much prep until after the 12z and I'm OTW essentially. I just believe these minor perturbations we're seeing with the wobbles can wreak havoc. By morning she should be trucking along and I expect that's lock and load time. We'll see.

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Agreed...regardless of the 0z suite I personally won't be doing much prep until after the 12z and I'm OTW essentially. I just believe these minor perturbations we're seeing with the wobbles can wreak havoc. By morning she should be trucking along and I expect that's lock and load time. We'll see.

Exactly, the reason for those huge cones is the amount of error associated with a cyclones track. The next 2-3 model runs will basically narrow down our cone so trends are now becoming increasingly significant. If we see a large shift take notice we often don't miss inside of the day 3 cone.

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It's interesting that NHC sees a hurricane strengthening prior to being formally designated ET:

INIT 27/0300Z 27.7N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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