SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 you may be better served reading the AFD from Taunton http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off thanks.... Do you think Boston is completely shut down on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 thanks.... Do you think Boston is completely shut down on Monday? That may be more of a game time decision. Maybe Sunday we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The NAM track just keeps the LLJ overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 thanks.... Do you think Boston is completely shut down on Monday? I could see many businesses closing their doors. I'm sure the mayor will be making some statement regarding city employees and the governor with state employees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxfoto Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 irene and 1938, in that order. So what storm do you guys think this will resemble most closely on satellite by the time at landfall? I've got my own ideas, but I'd like to hear some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The NAM track just keeps the LLJ overhead. The jet structure is just ridiculous, especially on the sw and NE of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How far South do you think the gfs comes in? I bet 50-100 miles at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How far South do you think the gfs comes in? I bet 50-100 miles at least. i say it holds its track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm surprised that ...as far as I am aware, I am the only one that is pounding the astro-tides with this. That NJ ...ACY landfall of the NAM is similar to the NOGAPS and both implicated a huge storm surge into the NY Bite area. Last I check, there are no seawall protection into the lower Mahhattan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS will be similar imho Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 CoastalWx....my thinking on this is.....we know without a doubt the average NHC error at 72 hours is 124.4, 96h is 166.5. Knowing that, and with the understanding that there has been track drift over the last 12-36 hours I expect NYC is going to be close to the landfall location, if not LI. With the sharp angle of assault from the ESE it's going to be tough to pinpoint but I think esp the NHC track is coming north another 100 or so miles in time. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm surprised that ...as far as I am aware, I am the only one that is pounding the astro-tides with this. That NJ ...ACY landfall of the NAM is similar to the NOGAPS and both implicated a huge storm surge into the NY Bite area. Last I check, there are no seawall protection into the lower Mahhattan area. Was wondering that myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SANDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. You think? I get the impession NHC and no disrespect. Would like to FF to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i say it holds its track based on 0z early guidance and seeing the nam I think we see a massive shift. I mean at least way south of LI and at least C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Was wondering this myself. Are the tropical models out of their wheelhouse so to speak once Sandy begins to transition to ET? Not trying to wishcast this thing north...seriously curious they should be given as much weight in this scenario. is sandy not transitioning already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 based on 0z early guidance and seeing the nam I think we see a massive shift. I mean at least way south of LI and at least C NJ. Could be, but until we see an established motion which comes after 12z Saturday I think models are going to struggle. We have a disjointed system right now that's wobbling around with no particular direction. Model nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 RGEM...for whatever it is worth is out around 70 at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm surprised that ...as far as I am aware, I am the only one that is pounding the astro-tides with this. That NJ ...ACY landfall of the NAM is similar to the NOGAPS and both implicated a huge storm surge into the NY Bite area. Last I check, there are no seawall protection into the lower Mahhattan area. Well in addition...Belt Parkway in Southern Brooklyn would likely be inundated with water this was during Irene [/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 based on 0z early guidance and seeing the nam I think we see a massive shift. I mean at least way south of LI and at least C NJ. I don't know if that is a massive shift since 18z GFS went just east of JFK, but I think a sw tick. GFS is too far ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Could be, but until we see an established motion which comes after 12z Saturday I think models are going to struggle. We have a disjointed system right now that's wobbling around with no particular direction. Model nightmare. fair... we've seen quite a few solutions as to what it would do off the florida coast and the sit and spin and move north was not modeled (we all saw the near FL hit) I still think that we are finally getting a track, nam didn't shift south because of a bad ingest or change in strength. It was a general resolution of the major players that finally are getting better resolved, that block is stronger than was progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 fair... we've seen quite a few solutions as to what it would do off the florida coast and the sit and spin and move north was not modeled (we all saw the near FL hit) I still think that we are finally getting a track, nam didn't shift south because of a bad ingest or change in strength. It was a general resolution of the major players that finally are getting better resolved, that block is stronger than was progged. and to be fair if 0z take this up to eastern LI I think we all have to accept that prep. needs to take place for coastal flooding wherever it is modeled as a consensus. I just think we are going to narrow the cone significantly tonight based on time until arrival and increased obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Gfs out to 24 Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM has 70 knots sustained at 800 feet over your head, lol. 90 knots at 900mb. The LLJ on the northeast side of this thing is hellecious. I am fully expecting especially along the coast to see you guys get gusts up there that'll match whatever we get down here if that or something like it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 and to be fair if 0z take this up to eastern LI I think we all have to accept that prep. needs to take place for coastal flooding wherever it is modeled as a consensus. I just think we are going to narrow the cone significantly tonight based on time until arrival and increased obs. Agreed...regardless of the 0z suite I personally won't be doing much prep until after the 12z and I'm OTW essentially. I just believe these minor perturbations we're seeing with the wobbles can wreak havoc. By morning she should be trucking along and I expect that's lock and load time. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS coming into consensus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS is gonna be west as we figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS out to 48 a good bit west of 18z.. thinking CNJ. Also a few mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Agreed...regardless of the 0z suite I personally won't be doing much prep until after the 12z and I'm OTW essentially. I just believe these minor perturbations we're seeing with the wobbles can wreak havoc. By morning she should be trucking along and I expect that's lock and load time. We'll see. Exactly, the reason for those huge cones is the amount of error associated with a cyclones track. The next 2-3 model runs will basically narrow down our cone so trends are now becoming increasingly significant. If we see a large shift take notice we often don't miss inside of the day 3 cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's interesting that NHC sees a hurricane strengthening prior to being formally designated ET: INIT 27/0300Z 27.7N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This run might make a go at 945mb.. already down to 951 by 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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