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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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I posted it in my forum (on phone right now)... pretty sure they nudged south a tad

Yeah, those are what NHC must be really hanging their hat on. What a monster difference between those the the global models. Even the Euro was well north of that.

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This is one of the most impressive crossections I've seen for the interior...this is ORH on the 18z GFS. If we got a GFS-esque solution, there would be some pretty huge winds. You essentially have a legit hurricane going on about 500-600 feet above ground. Having a 105 knot LLJ at 2500 feet helps, lol.

Wow, thanks for posting. I know we're all excited, but if that verifies I can how it would make for a long night. Maybe Kevin will be high fiving the kids at 6z as limbs are smashing the windows but most us will be nervously awaiting daylight, reminding ourselves how much we actually love this stuff.

I sure hope they let my plane in Sunday. Fearing sequestration to avoid equipment being stranded.

Me too. Changing planes in PHL then head to BDL late sunday night. Cutting it close. Good luck!

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The 18z NAM was on target to bring the storm into LI after 84h...I'd be surprised if it didn't come south a bit at 00z.

The western end of the western ridge colapses earlier. That means Central US end of the ridge will amplify earlier, then the southeast trough will amplify earlier and turn Sandy back to the west earlier.

I've been staring at these tmaps way too long my head hurts.

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NAM is definitely not as far north and east as the 18z run...but still pretty far north overall.

Looks like 956mb near Statan Island...maybe Sandy Hook...hard to tell...but that general area. That would be pretty devastating for much of NYC and SNE.

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Hesitant to use the NAM at this juncture, but it hammers Jersey/NYC at 954.7 mb at 72 hrs.

NAM is definitely not as far north and east as the 18z run...but still pretty far north overall.

Looks like 956mb near Statan Island...maybe Sandy Hook...hard to tell...but that general area. That would be pretty devastating for much of NYC and SNE.

964mb at ACY/C NJ Monday night 00z is what I see as LF

955

huh.pnghuh.png

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