Yorkpa25 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not that it matters... Nam coming in 8 mb stronger at hour 33 on 0z. At 968 compared to 976 on 18z at hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I posted it in my forum (on phone right now)... pretty sure they nudged south a tad Yeah, those are what NHC must be really hanging their hat on. What a monster difference between those the the global models. Even the Euro was well north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still pretty far south. Aren't the TV models supposed to be good ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is one of the most impressive crossections I've seen for the interior...this is ORH on the 18z GFS. If we got a GFS-esque solution, there would be some pretty huge winds. You essentially have a legit hurricane going on about 500-600 feet above ground. Having a 105 knot LLJ at 2500 feet helps, lol. Wow, thanks for posting. I know we're all excited, but if that verifies I can how it would make for a long night. Maybe Kevin will be high fiving the kids at 6z as limbs are smashing the windows but most us will be nervously awaiting daylight, reminding ourselves how much we actually love this stuff. I sure hope they let my plane in Sunday. Fearing sequestration to avoid equipment being stranded. Me too. Changing planes in PHL then head to BDL late sunday night. Cutting it close. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Aren't the TV models supposed to be good ones? Although they maybe inched north. Tough to tell on phone. NHC loves TVCN model, the consensus model. It may be renamed but they usually go nay that. Not always as seen with Debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The storm gets swung so far wide right of HSE...its so hard to picture it coming back that fast...the global models say it won't but those tropical models think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 look at 500mb, getting ready for a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM looks a little faster, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For every 1 mile it goes east it will come north 2miles, because it has to come all the way back. That's what sucks about Uturns they double the forecast error. Could screw up the landfall timing by quite a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looking sexy at 48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 18z NAM was on target to bring the storm into LI after 84h...I'd be surprised if it didn't come south a bit at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Bombing out at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 18z NAM was on target to bring the storm into LI after 84h...I'd be surprised if it didn't come south a bit at 00z. It is, Maybe by quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Would we be watching the tropical models for a incoming Blizzard? The relivence if Sandy stayed pure tropical I can see, but uncharted territory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Seems a little faster, not as Far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 18z NAM was on target to bring the storm into LI after 84h...I'd be surprised if it didn't come south a bit at 00z. The western end of the western ridge colapses earlier. That means Central US end of the ridge will amplify earlier, then the southeast trough will amplify earlier and turn Sandy back to the west earlier. I've been staring at these tmaps way too long my head hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Seems a little faster, not as Far East. a tad west but faster so maybe not further north or south, we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LF NNJ 960 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hesitant to use the NAM at this juncture, but it hammers Jersey/NYC at 954.7 mb at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM is definitely not as far north and east as the 18z run...but still pretty far north overall. Looks like 956mb near Statan Island...maybe Sandy Hook...hard to tell...but that general area. That would be pretty devastating for much of NYC and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 964mb at ACY/C NJ Monday night 00z is what I see as LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LF NNJ 960 mb 955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hesitant to use the NAM at this juncture, but it hammers Jersey/NYC at 954.7 mb at 72 hrs. That certainly seems to be the pattern with most of the models and will probably be repeated more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 960ish Northern New Jersey - NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NNJ LF sub 960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 955 SV not so generous on the pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hesitant to use the NAM at this juncture, but it hammers Jersey/NYC at 954.7 mb at 72 hrs. NAM is definitely not as far north and east as the 18z run...but still pretty far north overall. Looks like 956mb near Statan Island...maybe Sandy Hook...hard to tell...but that general area. That would be pretty devastating for much of NYC and SNE. 964mb at ACY/C NJ Monday night 00z is what I see as LF 955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We are all fighting over MSLP and location of landfall Heavy heavy rain in SW quadrant... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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