powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I really think MQE may be the spot to be for high winds... they'll be just far enough off the deck to get slammed by those ESE winds coming in off the ocean without losing speed to friction with the surface. You eastern MA weenies should camp out up there on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That is an extremely impressive cross section for a place as far north as ORH... Looks like Monday night will be an all nighter for tracking the obs on this thing. I just hope enough of you in SNE can retain power in order to post observations. That's half the fun of a storm like this...sharing it with like minded individuals. Spare batteries for everyone's weather station monitors. Imagine not being able to track your winds/rainfall becuase you lost power??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I really think MQE may be the spot to be for high winds... they'll be just far enough off the deck to get slammed by those ESE winds coming in off the ocean without losing speed to friction with the surface. You eastern MA weenies should camp out up there on Monday night. I think MQE could gust 100mph if the GFS verified. They'd certainly be a deadbolt lock for 80mph. But there's plenty of uncertainty still in how close the storm comes when it makes the left hand turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I've got Tuesday off... thinking about spending the night atop Mount Mansfield at 4,000ft in one of the one-room "off-the-grid" shacks that are up there. Even though its way north, I think the summits will still be able to pull some 80+mph gusts judging by H85 wind speeds up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think MQE could gust 100mph if the GFS verified. They'd certainly be a deadbolt lock for 80mph. But there's plenty of uncertainty still in how close the storm comes when it makes the left hand turn. I suppose anyone's guess is as good as the next guy's with this. But, do you expect we will get some decent track clarity tonight? I'm guessing we'll need another 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's possible with storm surge forecasted that the area about half mile away near the neponset river gets flooded by tidal surge. That would literally leave me one way to get to 93.....cutting through the city. Not sure when the last time that area flooded. Maybe perfect storm and blizzard of '78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think MQE could gust 100mph if the GFS verified. They'd certainly be a deadbolt lock for 80mph. But there's plenty of uncertainty still in how close the storm comes when it makes the left hand turn. Gfs would almost certainly lock in that, but that's if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I really think MQE may be the spot to be for high winds... they'll be just far enough off the deck to get slammed by those ESE winds coming in off the ocean without losing speed to friction with the surface. You eastern MA weenies should camp out up there on Monday night. If the GFS is right then EMA weenies will be inside with gusts on the coast to 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think MQE could gust 100mph if the GFS verified. They'd certainly be a deadbolt lock for 80mph. But there's plenty of uncertainty still in how close the storm comes when it makes the left hand turn. Yeah I was thinking if anyone in SNE sees the 100mph gust, I think MQE (at least of the official reporting stations) would have the best chance being elevated off the deck a bit. That extra 500ft on the coastal plain could make a huge difference and really take wind speeds to a whole other level. I'd pay money to spend Monday night on MQE. Also, out of curiosity, what's the highest building in Boston? Speaking of buildings, can you imagine being on top of the Empire State Building during this? At 1,000ft in the air near the water there is almost a lock for hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 18z NAM bufkit for BDL has a decent period of 50+ kt mixing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's possible with storm surge forecasted that the area about half mile away near the neponset river gets flooded by tidal surge. That would literally leave me one way to get to 93.....cutting through the city. Not sure when the last time that area flooded. Maybe perfect storm and blizzard of '78. There was horrendous flooding there too in 1992...I know a lot of spots almost hit the 1991 surge marks in Dec '92...but the max of '92 was just barely too far south to break the records like '78. It broke most of the modern records in NNJ and LI sound. If this takes a wider, more north turn...which would probably make it slower...then the surge on E MA coast would be pretty bad. Exposing it to more than one tide cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think Messenger to Phil might be high wind jackpots, dry slot and good mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 First Winter Storm Watch of the season east of the Mississippi has been issued in West Virginia... Tippy's dream of a hurricane with snow. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... .THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WVZ038-046-047-270400- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0004.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/ WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COWEN...MARLINTON...ELKINS 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I might wish I was home if the GFS/NAM came to fruition. Maybe like 55 mph gusts back home and only 40 up here? Meh, it's pretty much all the same until you reach 74mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Also anyone in those areas of NJ known to be prone to freshwater flooding. track puts them on SW flank where heaviest totals have been forecast to occur. Raritan and Pompton/Passaic in particular. The Pompton River floods when two deer pee at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I've got Tuesday off... thinking about spending the night atop Mount Mansfield at 4,000ft in one of the one-room "off-the-grid" shacks that are up there. Even though its way north, I think the summits will still be able to pull some 80+mph gusts judging by H85 wind speeds up here. LOL--I was thinking it would probably be neat to be at Bascom Lodge on the summit of Mt. Greylock. Only 3500', but I bet it would rock pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There was horrendous flooding there too in 1992...I know a lot of spots almost hit the 1991 surge marks in Dec '92...but the max of '92 was just barely too far south to break the records like '78. It broke most of the modern records in NNJ and LI sound. If this takes a wider, more north turn...which would probably make it slower...then the surge on E MA coast would be pretty bad. Exposing it to more than one tide cycle. I don't know specifically how this area did, just can only go by how high it is above mean high tide. Think even a 3-4' surge would bing water in. It floods already when heavy rain and high tides coincide, although rain is not the worry here. How did 00z tropical models do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yikes, Will. You post that right after I posted the relatively mild winds I was expecting here inland. Maybe I should delete that post! lol AHDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I've got Tuesday off... thinking about spending the night atop Mount Mansfield at 4,000ft in one of the one-room "off-the-grid" shacks that are up there. Even though its way north, I think the summits will still be able to pull some 80+mph gusts judging by H85 wind speeds up here. That would be a great spot, ever spend the night there in a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Spare batteries for everyone's weather station monitors. Imagine not being able to track your winds/rainfall becuase you lost power??? This is a good point. I'll probably change mine this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 AHDT ???? I can only imagine what the FDR Drive in NYC will look like...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ???? I can only imagine what the FDR Drive in NYC will look like...... Lol... I had been paying attention the last couple of days as some of our guys had been mentioning the winds aloft. NyC will be soggy. Might be interesting to watch the PD Family mesosite. Blink off like Dec 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I sure hope they let my plane in Sunday. Fearing sequestration to avoid equipment being stranded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't know specifically how this area did, just can only go by how high it is above mean high tide. Think even a 3-4' surge would bing water in. It floods already when heavy rain and high tides coincide, although rain is not the worry here. How did 00z tropical models do? I don't have the link for that plot of the tropical dynamic forecast models. I used to on my old laptop but not on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm showing my age here but talk about memories. Vivid memories of Donna in 1960. The flooded Menatoquit River in Braintree was so severe it extended from the armory to the MBTA station. Weymouth landing was 30' under water. I doubt Blue Hill will exceed the 145mph gust. Just some benchmark records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where do you get those maps like Ryan posted a few times? Like had asymmetrical warm-core, cold-core, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where do you get those maps like Ryan posted a few times? Like had asymmetrical warm-core, cold-core, etc. The phase diagram maps? From FSU - moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't have the link for that plot of the tropical dynamic forecast models. I used to on my old laptop but not on this one. I posted it in my forum (on phone right now)... pretty sure they nudged south a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The phase diagram maps? From FSU Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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