Seawind Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is there any analog for this event? Not location/effect wise... I am more interested in information focusing on the interaction of the elements in play allowing this storm to develop. From what I have read on the board, it appears to be a quite unusual storm... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Havent seen Noyes this amped since 1/28/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On the live stream a few moments ago, when Noyes was pressed about winds in Attleboro he said gusts 50-60mph, maybe higher if some things come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Call me crazy, but I think NYC will still be here in a week from now. A few of those big buildings might even survive this storm. Yup the city will definitely be there, it's the amount of water damage that will be alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think we all need to take a step back and see that the dry air has not mixed out. The euro predicted the dry air would be mixed out, but the moist air in s fl is gone. I think pressure will be low, but not as low as models are suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where will storm surge hit in terms of places on the Sound? If the winds are out of the east then NYC will largely be spared because its sheltered on that side by Long Island, Westchester would feel the brunt of the surge. NE/NNE winds are a bigger issue for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Bill Goodman is good And who gets hours and hours of 40-50G70-80! Not exactly sure, but if I lived anywhere in NJ, NYC metro, Long Island, or southern New England, especially near the coast or in higher elevations, I would prepare for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Also anyone in those areas of NJ known to be prone to freshwater flooding. track puts them on SW flank where heaviest totals have been forecast to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Almost looks as if we have the llc of Sandy and another mlc to its ene, as it appeared this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not saying he's right... But I understand what he's saying/seeing. The American guidance could definitely be overdone but if its not...those winds at 900-950 mb are intense. I agree for down there, but he has 60+ right up through C NH. We usually struggle in these situations to mix down the good stuff. Feb 2010 CON pulled off 68mph while most up here were wedged in and only saw 35-45mph. I think PSM/PWM will have a chance at 60+. I hope I'm wrong...I haven't hit a gust of 50+ yet here on the Davis.btw...good luck down there. It's going to be wild down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jntkwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is there any analog for this event? http://kamala.cod.ed...846.fxus61.html - PATTERN WOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THE APRIL 16TH 2007 WINDSTORM THAT BROUGHT DAMAGING WINDS TO A LARGE PART OF VERMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You must be hugging the NoyesGAPS. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Storms like this make me happy to be away from the coast. Sure, we'll get a lot of rain and somewhat strong winds here, but nothing like the coastal areas. Good luck in advance to those on the shorelines in NE/NY/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Storms like this make me happy to be away from the coast. Sure, we'll get a lot of rain and somewhat strong winds here, but nothing like the coastal areas. Good luck in advance to those on the shorelines in NE/NY/NJ. What is your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What is your elevation? Nothing wrong with a little light hearted commentary, good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nothing wrong with a little light hearted commentary, good stuff ? 925 won't be that far over me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ? 925 won't be that far over me... oops my bad, thought it was a play on coastal locales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What is your elevation? Only 1000' or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Only 1000' or so. Well, we are not that high, but I would think there would be a little enhancement due to el ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well, we are not that high, but I would think there would be a little enhancement due to el ... I thought you were 1000', too? On top of an exposed east facing hill can't hurt I suppose. Regardless, I think our winds will pale in relation to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I thought you were 1000', too? On top of an exposed east facing hill can't hurt I suppose. Regardless, I think our winds will pale in relation to the coast. Yeah...by we, I meant both of us. I thought you were a bit higher. MQE might be neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New user here. Sandy brought me here, but I wanted to join so that I could give a big thank you to everyone who has contributed to these threads on Sandy. It has been a real joy to read, especially as a new met student myself. I'm learning and getting excited! Thankfully I'm up in Toronto so I don't think we'll get anything too significant. I hope everyone is safe, wherever Sandy hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 just playing devil' advocate here for a bit...I have been waiting all week for actual number (rainfall, wind speed, storm surge) to actually start being thrown. Just saw this from a great met from NJ who is predicting this for the Jersey shore....either these number are to low...or this storm will not live up to the expectations being set. What do you guys think. I said this a couple of days ago, but are all of us weaher fans more interested in how this hybrid, completely unique evolution and letting it enhance the severity...if these numbers stand up then this will not even be the storm of the decade. By Monday evening, this storm explodes and rapidly bombs out over the New Jersey coastal waters. Up to this point, the center of Sandy had been tracking to roughly 100 to 125 miles off the coast. However, with the complete phase in place and a new upper level low forming over Maryland, the surface low is pulled back slowly towards the New Jersey coast, roughly between Ocean and Atlantic counties of New Jersey. This track will enhance coastal flooding along the coastal plain, produce very heavy rainfall for the entire Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas, and support very intense sustained winds at 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph. Let me step back and explain why this storm bombs out or intensifies. When the Sub Tropical low and the Polar air mass phase disturbances, this leads to a dynamic and unique clash of air masses. A thermal gradient of over 20 degrees develops over the coastal plain as a result. Meanwhile, the “warm core” aspect of this storm continues to produce latent heat release, further enhancing the thermal gradient and rising motion of the atmosphere. Basically this storm becomes super charged as a result of all this rising air. So by Tuesday morning, the center of the storm is pulling west towards the Delaware River just to the south of Philadelphia. Widespread heavy rainfall, strong winds, and significant tidal flooding continues to be a problem through the day. This storm finally exits by Tuesday night into Wednesday with lingering showers and slowly declining winds. STORM NOTES: 1. The general impacts of this storm will be the following: Rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches Sustained winds of 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph Significant coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is one of the most impressive crossections I've seen for the interior...this is ORH on the 18z GFS. If we got a GFS-esque solution, there would be some pretty huge winds. You essentially have a legit hurricane going on about 500-600 feet above ground. Having a 105 knot LLJ at 2500 feet helps, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah...by we, I meant both of us. I thought you were a bit higher. MQE might be neat Perhaps a tree will take down the 'old forge'. It was the home/forgg of the blacksmith who owned this land until the Parson built the Pit in th 1790's. We now use it as our shed--but it's insured for $65,000. I think we might have a garage and pool in place should a tree take it down. Not wishing it mind you........... New user here. Sandy brought me here, but I wanted to join so that I could give a big thank you to everyone who has contributed to these threads on Sandy. It has been a real joy to read, especially as a new met student myself. I'm learning and getting excited! Thankfully I'm up in Toronto so I don't think we'll get anything too significant. I hope everyone is safe, wherever Sandy hits. Welcome, Blake. Glad to have you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That is an extremely impressive cross section for a place as far north as ORH... Looks like Monday night will be an all nighter for tracking the obs on this thing. I just hope enough of you in SNE can retain power in order to post observations. That's half the fun of a storm like this...sharing it with like minded individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I might wish I was home if the GFS/NAM came to fruition. Maybe like 55 mph gusts back home and only 40 up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 just playing devil' advocate here for a bit...I have been waiting all week for actual number (rainfall, wind speed, storm surge) to actually start being thrown. Just saw this from a great met from NJ who is predicting this for the Jersey shore....either these number are to low...or this storm will not live up to the expectations being set. What do you guys think. I said this a couple of days ago, but are all of us weaher fans more interested in how this hybrid, completely unique evolution and letting it enhance the severity...if these numbers stand up then this will not even be the storm of the decade. By Monday evening, this storm explodes and rapidly bombs out over the New Jersey coastal waters. Up to this point, the center of Sandy had been tracking to roughly 100 to 125 miles off the coast. However, with the complete phase in place and a new upper level low forming over Maryland, the surface low is pulled back slowly towards the New Jersey coast, roughly between Ocean and Atlantic counties of New Jersey. This track will enhance coastal flooding along the coastal plain, produce very heavy rainfall for the entire Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas, and support very intense sustained winds at 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph. Let me step back and explain why this storm bombs out or intensifies. When the Sub Tropical low and the Polar air mass phase disturbances, this leads to a dynamic and unique clash of air masses. A thermal gradient of over 20 degrees develops over the coastal plain as a result. Meanwhile, the “warm core” aspect of this storm continues to produce latent heat release, further enhancing the thermal gradient and rising motion of the atmosphere. Basically this storm becomes super charged as a result of all this rising air. So by Tuesday morning, the center of the storm is pulling west towards the Delaware River just to the south of Philadelphia. Widespread heavy rainfall, strong winds, and significant tidal flooding continues to be a problem through the day. This storm finally exits by Tuesday night into Wednesday with lingering showers and slowly declining winds. STORM NOTES: 1. The general impacts of this storm will be the following: Rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches Sustained winds of 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph Significant coastal flooding. It's less the magnitude of the winds, and more the COVERAGE of the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is one of the most impressive crossections I've seen for the interior...this is ORH on the 18z GFS. If we got a GFS-esque solution, there would be some pretty huge winds. You essentially have a legit hurricane going on about 500-600 feet above ground. Having a 105 knot LLJ at 2500 feet helps, lol. Yikes, Will. You post that right after I posted the relatively mild winds I was expecting here inland. Maybe I should delete that post! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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