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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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Is there any analog for this event?

Not location/effect wise...

I am more interested in information focusing on the interaction of the elements in play allowing this storm to develop.

From what I have read on the board, it appears to be a quite unusual storm...

Thanks!

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I'm not saying he's right... But I understand what he's saying/seeing. The American guidance could definitely be overdone but if its not...those winds at 900-950 mb are intense.

I agree for down there, but he has 60+ right up through C NH. We usually struggle in these situations to mix down the good stuff. Feb 2010 CON pulled off 68mph while most up here were wedged in and only saw 35-45mph. I think PSM/PWM will have a chance at 60+. I hope I'm wrong...I haven't hit a gust of 50+ yet here on the Davis.

btw...good luck down there. It's going to be wild down there.

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New user here. Sandy brought me here, but I wanted to join so that I could give a big thank you to everyone who has contributed to these threads on Sandy. It has been a real joy to read, especially as a new met student myself. I'm learning and getting excited! Thankfully I'm up in Toronto so I don't think we'll get anything too significant. I hope everyone is safe, wherever Sandy hits.

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just playing devil' advocate here for a bit...I have been waiting all week for actual number (rainfall, wind speed, storm surge) to actually start being thrown. Just saw this from a great met from NJ who is predicting this for the Jersey shore....either these number are to low...or this storm will not live up to the expectations being set. What do you guys think. I said this a couple of days ago, but are all of us weaher fans more interested in how this hybrid, completely unique evolution and letting it enhance the severity...if these numbers stand up then this will not even be the storm of the decade.

By Monday evening, this storm explodes and rapidly bombs out over the New Jersey coastal waters. Up to this point, the center of Sandy had been tracking to roughly 100 to 125 miles off the coast. However, with the complete phase in place and a new upper level low forming over Maryland, the surface low is pulled back slowly towards the New Jersey coast, roughly between Ocean and Atlantic counties of New Jersey. This track will enhance coastal flooding along the coastal plain, produce very heavy rainfall for the entire Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas, and support very intense sustained winds at 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph.

Let me step back and explain why this storm bombs out or intensifies. When the Sub Tropical low and the Polar air mass phase disturbances, this leads to a dynamic and unique clash of air masses. A thermal gradient of over 20 degrees develops over the coastal plain as a result. Meanwhile, the “warm core” aspect of this storm continues to produce latent heat release, further enhancing the thermal gradient and rising motion of the atmosphere. Basically this storm becomes super charged as a result of all this rising air.

So by Tuesday morning, the center of the storm is pulling west towards the Delaware River just to the south of Philadelphia. Widespread heavy rainfall, strong winds, and significant tidal flooding continues to be a problem through the day.

This storm finally exits by Tuesday night into Wednesday with lingering showers and slowly declining winds.

STORM NOTES:

1. The general impacts of this storm will be the following:

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches

Sustained winds of 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph

Significant coastal flooding.

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This is one of the most impressive crossections I've seen for the interior...this is ORH on the 18z GFS. If we got a GFS-esque solution, there would be some pretty huge winds. You essentially have a legit hurricane going on about 500-600 feet above ground. Having a 105 knot LLJ at 2500 feet helps, lol.

2rq0lyc.jpg

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Yeah...by we, I meant both of us. I thought you were a bit higher. MQE might be neat

Perhaps a tree will take down the 'old forge'. It was the home/forgg of the blacksmith who owned this land until the Parson built the Pit in th 1790's. We now use it as our shed--but it's insured for $65,000. I think we might have a garage and pool in place should a tree take it down. Not wishing it mind you...........

New user here. Sandy brought me here, but I wanted to join so that I could give a big thank you to everyone who has contributed to these threads on Sandy. It has been a real joy to read, especially as a new met student myself. I'm learning and getting excited! Thankfully I'm up in Toronto so I don't think we'll get anything too significant. I hope everyone is safe, wherever Sandy hits.

Welcome, Blake. Glad to have you here.

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That is an extremely impressive cross section for a place as far north as ORH...

Looks like Monday night will be an all nighter for tracking the obs on this thing. I just hope enough of you in SNE can retain power in order to post observations. That's half the fun of a storm like this...sharing it with like minded individuals.

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just playing devil' advocate here for a bit...I have been waiting all week for actual number (rainfall, wind speed, storm surge) to actually start being thrown. Just saw this from a great met from NJ who is predicting this for the Jersey shore....either these number are to low...or this storm will not live up to the expectations being set. What do you guys think. I said this a couple of days ago, but are all of us weaher fans more interested in how this hybrid, completely unique evolution and letting it enhance the severity...if these numbers stand up then this will not even be the storm of the decade.

By Monday evening, this storm explodes and rapidly bombs out over the New Jersey coastal waters. Up to this point, the center of Sandy had been tracking to roughly 100 to 125 miles off the coast. However, with the complete phase in place and a new upper level low forming over Maryland, the surface low is pulled back slowly towards the New Jersey coast, roughly between Ocean and Atlantic counties of New Jersey. This track will enhance coastal flooding along the coastal plain, produce very heavy rainfall for the entire Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas, and support very intense sustained winds at 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph.

Let me step back and explain why this storm bombs out or intensifies. When the Sub Tropical low and the Polar air mass phase disturbances, this leads to a dynamic and unique clash of air masses. A thermal gradient of over 20 degrees develops over the coastal plain as a result. Meanwhile, the “warm core” aspect of this storm continues to produce latent heat release, further enhancing the thermal gradient and rising motion of the atmosphere. Basically this storm becomes super charged as a result of all this rising air.

So by Tuesday morning, the center of the storm is pulling west towards the Delaware River just to the south of Philadelphia. Widespread heavy rainfall, strong winds, and significant tidal flooding continues to be a problem through the day.

This storm finally exits by Tuesday night into Wednesday with lingering showers and slowly declining winds.

STORM NOTES:

1. The general impacts of this storm will be the following:

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches

Sustained winds of 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 60 mph

Significant coastal flooding.

It's less the magnitude of the winds, and more the COVERAGE of the winds.

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This is one of the most impressive crossections I've seen for the interior...this is ORH on the 18z GFS. If we got a GFS-esque solution, there would be some pretty huge winds. You essentially have a legit hurricane going on about 500-600 feet above ground. Having a 105 knot LLJ at 2500 feet helps, lol.

2rq0lyc.jpg

Yikes, Will. You post that right after I posted the relatively mild winds I was expecting here inland. Maybe I should delete that post! lol

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