JoMo Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So do we not care about the NAM? I like to think were looking at a Northern NJ/and NYC landfall. NAM, GFS, and GGEM all consistent! The ECMWF is the major model showing a southern NJ landfall... thoughts? The NAM is typically pretty awful in general but once it starts to be within 36 hours or less, it may be more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Why do you think that? Are you very experienced with that? Don't mean to sound like a jerk, just wondering. I am a new meteorologist (degree this winter), and I don't know how much I should consider each. Thanks! no , but i did stay at the north conway grand last nite honestly the euro usually takes the most weight whenever i hear it discussed. I have heard a few tropical mets say the gfs owned the euro in the tropics this year. Euro has had this since day 10 lol , and phased every run, and has been out of this world. someone should have a GIF of the EURO runs from 240 hours out for this storm, unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 you're not thinking NNJ/NYC area? the gfs and euro ensemble means target cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Noyes hammering wind threat, worst for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Noyes hammering wind threat, worst for SNE But of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Here's an ominous sign - I watched literally hundreds of Canadian Geese fly WNW while I was working outside this evening. They obviously know S is not the direction to head right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 the gfs and euro ensemble means target cnj Euro had Nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro had Nnj Nope. Ens Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro had Nnj North central jersey but your both right, it's splitting hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Matt Noyes said something about any thunderstorm or wave could bring 115 kt winds to the surface...wtf. I think he needs to relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Matt Noyes said something about any thunderstorm or wave could bring 115 kt winds to the surface...wtf. Matt Noyes has gone into real weenie territory, 130mph wind gusts are not going to happen, maybe an isolated gust to 100 on the coast but nowhere near 130mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think it will make the left turn further up the coast than expected. Remember these storms that made left turns all were further north than expected. 12/30/2000 3/5/2001 12/26/2010 (Yes 48hrs out for DC) Belch. 2/26/2010 (Just far enough north to screw Philly and suprise NYC) 4/23/2012 Of course we do have 2/9/2010 that was further south so weenie shave a glimor of hope. Also don't underestimate downsloping!! especially if it's raining and there's evaporation cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What can we expect for wiond and surge along the coast from Boston to Portland. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GEFS looks maybe near ACY or just north? Then near TTN. Still looks like ctrl NJ target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 When does the Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Starting to think the coastal flooding in western long island sound might be historical if these models are correct with a central nj landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounding for central CT @84hrs of then18z GFS.... Just downright ermegard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not hearing much about the impact to coastal Maine from Portland and south. If I read the 18z GFS correctly we 'might' see 50-60 mph gusts at the height of this thing. I am stil wondering what kind of probability there still may be for a slightly further north/northeast landfall; i.e., a left/west hook further north than currently forcast or a less severe turn to the leff/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Starting to think I should evacuate, New Haven west is going to be a mess. Evacuation orders are municipality ordered, what is your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the models hold serve with a C NJ to LI track come tomorrow then we all spend sunday and beyond in nowcast mode. The one guarentee is an adrenaline rush for weenies from Baltimore to Boston come sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 North central jersey but your both right, it's splitting hairs Agreed. Was going to post something similar. NJ is ~90 miles long from Perth Amboy to Cape May. Arguing over northern or central is arguing over 30 or 40 miles. Don't think it makes a ton of difference for us if it comes in over Sandy Hook or Seaside Heights. Either way it will be rainy, windy, and there will be a pretty good surge in the Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Starting to think the coastal flooding in western long island sound might be historical if these models are correct with a central nj landfall. That's the thing man, I hope folks in NYC and S Ct/RI coasts don't dismiss this b/c the forecasts are for a "Nor'Easter" hitting central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think 33 ft, but less than a 1/4 mile from the sound. You should be fine. 10' here although one site had me at 16' in the cat one surge flood zone, neighbor across the street said he flooded in 92, just might come down to when was the last time the army corps of engineers dredged the inlet and marshes between here and the beach. Lots of sentiment and silt builds up, I am trying to find out that information but with no such luck, regardless we were ordered to evacuate in Irene I suspect the same, but hoping this thing comes in east of here so we can get some offshore flow, not looking that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 sandy is not really moving is she? also i have NEVER ever seen a hurricane look so ridiculous, is she going thru some sort of barcolynic process or transition, she looks , um.....extra tropical but i understand she is very much warm core now so just wondering if there is some process besides shear, seems this started yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 the euro and 18z gfs ensemble means both show landfall in almost the exact same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FEMA has me in a 500 year flood zone. Hope this isn't the 501st year. lol. lol, I hate my federally mandated flood insurance but it just might come in handy this year:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 the euro and 18z gfs ensemble means both show landfall in almost the exact same spot. Yeah, looks like a good area. Windfield will be awesome up this way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Noyes really said that? LOL, what a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FEMA has me in a 500 year flood zone. Hope this isn't the 501st year. lol. You should consider not only your elevation, but the elevation of roads leading away from your home in case you needed to get out for a reason other than surge (roof comes off, medical emergency, etc...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You should be fine. 10' here although one site had me at 16' in the cat one surge flood zone, neighbor across the street said he flooded in 92, just might come down to when was the last time the army corps of engineers dredged the inlet and marshes between here and the beach. Lots of sentiment and silt builds up, I am trying to find out that information but with no such luck, regardless we were ordered to evacuate in Irene I suspect the same, but hoping this thing comes in east of here so we can get some offshore flow, not looking that way. I'm on the Sound as well, though those surge maps say it will take a cat 3 or 4 to get to me. During Irene had water on three sides of me. Expect the usual spots to be flooded: South Water St right on the state line which is close to flooding just about every high tide on a normal day, Bruce Park, a good chunk of Old Greenwich, Cos Cob along the Mianus.. I expect all those areas to be under water come Monday/Tuesday as they were during Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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