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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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So do we not care about the NAM? I like to think were looking at a Northern NJ/and NYC landfall. NAM, GFS, and GGEM all consistent! The ECMWF is the major model showing a southern NJ landfall... thoughts?

The NAM is typically pretty awful in general but once it starts to be within 36 hours or less, it may be more useful.

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Why do you think that? Are you very experienced with that? Don't mean to sound like a jerk, just wondering. I am a new meteorologist (degree this winter), and I don't know how much I should consider each. Thanks!

no , but i did stay at the north conway grand last nite

honestly the euro usually takes the most weight whenever i hear it discussed.

I have heard a few tropical mets say the gfs owned the euro in the tropics this year.

Euro has had this since day 10 lol , and phased every run, and has been out of this world.

someone should have a GIF of the EURO runs from 240 hours out for this storm, unreal

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I think it will make the left turn further up the coast than expected.

Remember these storms that made left turns all were further north than expected.

12/30/2000

3/5/2001

12/26/2010 (Yes 48hrs out for DC) Belch.

2/26/2010 (Just far enough north to screw Philly and suprise NYC)

4/23/2012

Of course we do have 2/9/2010 that was further south so weenie shave a glimor of hope.

Also don't underestimate downsloping!! especially if it's raining and there's evaporation cooling.

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Not hearing much about the impact to coastal Maine from Portland and south. If I read the 18z GFS correctly we 'might' see 50-60 mph gusts at the height of this thing. I am stil wondering what kind of probability there still may be for a slightly further north/northeast landfall; i.e., a left/west hook further north than currently forcast or a less severe turn to the leff/west.

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North central jersey but your both right, it's splitting hairs

Agreed. Was going to post something similar. NJ is ~90 miles long from Perth Amboy to Cape May. Arguing over northern or central is arguing over 30 or 40 miles. Don't think it makes a ton of difference for us if it comes in over Sandy Hook or Seaside Heights. Either way it will be rainy, windy, and there will be a pretty good surge in the Sound.

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I think 33 ft, but less than a 1/4 mile from the sound.

You should be fine.

10' here although one site had me at 16' in the cat one surge flood zone, neighbor across the street said he flooded in 92, just might come down to when was the last time the army corps of engineers dredged the inlet and marshes between here and the beach. Lots of sentiment and silt builds up, I am trying to find out that information but with no such luck, regardless we were ordered to evacuate in Irene I suspect the same, but hoping this thing comes in east of here so we can get some offshore flow, not looking that way.

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sandy is not really moving is she?

also i have NEVER ever seen a hurricane look so ridiculous, is she going thru some sort of barcolynic process or transition, she looks , um.....extra tropical but i understand she is very much warm core now so just wondering if there is some process besides shear, seems this started yesterday

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You should be fine.

10' here although one site had me at 16' in the cat one surge flood zone, neighbor across the street said he flooded in 92, just might come down to when was the last time the army corps of engineers dredged the inlet and marshes between here and the beach. Lots of sentiment and silt builds up, I am trying to find out that information but with no such luck, regardless we were ordered to evacuate in Irene I suspect the same, but hoping this thing comes in east of here so we can get some offshore flow, not looking that way.

I'm on the Sound as well, though those surge maps say it will take a cat 3 or 4 to get to me. During Irene had water on three sides of me. Expect the usual spots to be flooded: South Water St right on the state line which is close to flooding just about every high tide on a normal day, Bruce Park, a good chunk of Old Greenwich, Cos Cob along the Mianus.. I expect all those areas to be under water come Monday/Tuesday as they were during Irene.

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