CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah she'll be SW. Not a surprise, but remember we will see these wobbles as models struggle the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 9:51 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah she'll be SW. Not a surprise, but remember we will see these wobbles as models struggle the phase. The models will probably wobble all over NJ as their landing point... some in S NJ... some in N NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 She is also quicker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 9:53 PM, CoastalWx said: She is also quicker this run. About time... considering EC/NOGAPS/GGEM were all a day faster than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL, wow way faster than 12z. Maybe 50 miles south of it. Approaching LI at rh 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 9:55 PM, yoda said: About time... considering EC/NOGAPS/GGEM were all a day faster than GFS That's because they all did not have the curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: That's because they all did not have the curve. True, but it was quite ridiculous how wide the curve was compared to the other globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This would be bad, if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 925mb winds are insane around the cape and coastal mass makes landfall around 950mb central/western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hits LI at 84H with 950 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z GFS... NYC and fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 9:58 PM, CT Rain said: 18z GFS... NYC and fast wow, onset of worst conditions for coastal ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah LF east of JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pressure looks legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ouch...This would be pretty bad for the south coast of New England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Epic 925 winds continue over Cape and Boston Harbor S Coasts of RI CT. LI sound surge maxed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z NOGAPS plows S or C NJ as something ridiculous... upper 940s I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:04 PM, WinterLand said: Ouch...This would be pretty bad for the south coast of New England... All of SNE. IFFF that happened. My gut says that still ctrl NJ may be best spot give or take. However, that acceleration west adds momentum to right of storm. Therefore strong winds more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 in the end there wasn't much difference in latitude of landfall on 18z ,i thought it may wind up more S (SW) than it did, the hook wasn't as sharp to left , or it was still moving WNW right up to long island, but it was faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Remember Andy Tandys mentors rule about ET transition low pressure not being lower than original TS , 952 seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 it seems most models are converging on CNJ as a landfall spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:07 PM, Neblizzard said: I'm not Able to access maps, it doesnt slow down when it makes landfall now ? Stalls ern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NYC sounds like a good landfall spot. Potentially end of Long Island. Gfs continues its consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 850mb temps plummet as the storm occludes over PA. Cold and without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So do we not care about the NAM? I like to think were looking at a Northern NJ/and NYC landfall. NAM, GFS, and GGEM all consistent! The ECMWF is the major model showing a southern NJ landfall... thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:19 PM, Microbursts said: So do we not care about the NAM? I like to think were looking at a Northern NJ/and NYC landfall. NAM, GFS, and GGEM all consistent! The ECMWF is the major model showing a southern NJ landfall... thoughts? i'd weigh the euro/euro ens 55% GFS 25 UKIE 10% GGEM 5% Nam 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:07 PM, forkyfork said: it seems most models are converging on CNJ as a landfall spot you're not thinking NNJ/NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:22 PM, cpick79 said: i'd weigh the euro/euro ens 55% GFS 25 UKIE 10% GGEM 5% Nam 5% Why do you think that? Are you very experienced with that? Don't mean to sound like a jerk, just wondering. I am a new meteorologist (degree this winter), and I don't know how much I should consider each. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Five tips for avoiding hype: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/post/hurricane-sandy-five-tips-for-avoiding-hype/2012/10/26/7bc942f4-1fa8-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html. Amusing article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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