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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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I really hope you guys get the wind you are hoping...it'll be such a shame if it's 90mph at 2500ft while under a rain-induced inversion it's only 30-40mph at the surface.

I want to see spots like BDL, ORH, BAF, FIT doing 50G75 if all this talk of hurricane force gusts inland is going to come true. To gust over 74mph those sustained winds will need to be high....and seeing sustained 50mph in the interior would be awesome.

I doubt the interior gusts to hurricane force....at least at the ASOS stations. Maybe places like Wachusett or other high exposed hilltops have a shot if we get the further north scenarios.

The coast is a different story though. The higher winds are very close to the ground there.

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I really hope you guys get the wind you are hoping...it'll be such a shame if it's 90mph at 2500ft while under a rain-induced inversion it's only 30-40mph at the surface.

I want to see spots like BDL, ORH, BAF, FIT doing 50G75 if all this talk of hurricane force gusts inland is going to come true. To gust over 74mph those sustained winds will need to be high....and seeing sustained 50mph in the interior would be awesome.

have you looked at any modeling or read Box disco of worst case gusting over 100
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For where they have a chance to occur (most likely Cape Cod to S RI on the coast), maybe 6 hours...but there is a chance there could be a 2nd pulse if the storm takes a wide turn north of the benchmark and then moves W...the 2nd pulse would be as the storm passes our longitude and winds come back out of the south.

Ah so you aren't sold on cane winds for Mt Tolland?

What are you thinking for interior winds? I'd just be bummed if all the inland ASOS are doing 20G40 after all this hype. You can get NW flow CAA to 50mph, so hoping to see some official 60+ in the interior...not just weenie estimated wind speeds.

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have you looked at any modeling or read Box disco of worst case gusting over 100

Yeah and I think they were talking about the coast. There is no way in hell the interior sees 100mph dude. I hope you aren't setting that as your expectations.

Most METs on here have been mentioning the coast for strong winds.

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Ah so you aren't sold on cane winds for Mt Tolland?

What are you thinking for interior winds? I'd just be bummed if all the inland ASOS are doing 20G40 after all this hype. You can get NW flow CAA to 50mph, so hoping to see some official 60+ in the interior...not just weenie estimated wind speeds.

If we assume the Euro is still a touch too far south, then I think we would definitely see much higher winds than 20G40 in the interior...probably stuff like 45G60+ wouldn't be too hard to find...esp in the hills...I would expect ORH airport to put up those numbers.

I'm just not sold on gusts of 75mph or greater over the interior yet.

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Yeah, not gonna happen in my opinion...this thing is done, it may have 75 mph winds somewhere once it phases and fully transitions but I'd be amazed if this ever was a true hurricane again.

Would it have a better chance to realize those winds back up to 75mph if it fully transitioned or would stronger winds be more likely the longer it retains tropical characteristics?

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This is a much better run for NYC, but it is a more more severe ordeal for Boston Harbor. Also, if it stalls like the 18z NAM ...sort of just S of the Islands, that would keep the strongest winds from penetrating W of I-95 due to Ekman limitations. You really need the instability of lower WAA/warm conveyor to penetrate inland to get the apocalypse on land.

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Yeah... but my car can't go there so well...lol

If they close my school (doubtful), maybe I will try to be down there...

go to the spot they call Ruggles. It's one of the best big wave spots on the ENTIRE east coast. works on a S/SE swell. Go down to the college (salve regina) and it's a spot along the cliff walk. you can drive right to ruggles ave, you can drive right to the break, it is soooo worth it. Waves will be going well over the sea wall and with the backdrop of the mansions it would be breathtaking

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This is a much better run for NYC, but it is a more more severe ordeal for Boston Harbor. Also, if it stalls like the 18z NAM ...sort of just S of the Islands, that would keep the strongest winds from penetrating W of I-95 due to Eiken limitations. You really need the instability of lower WAA/warm conveyor to penetrate inland to get the apocalypse on land.

I think you mean Ekman?

There may be a few hour window where it gets quite squally over the interior with embedded +SHRA if that potent LLJ can make it far enough north/inland. Those details still need to be ironed out though this weekend.

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BOX with some pretty hefty wording:

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH

SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. SEAS EXCEEDING 40

FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4 FEET

WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

that's serious stuff with 10.5 tides. would rival or exceed some of the all time events.

Sweet jesus. I was waiting for BOX to speak to potential tides, waves and surge. Accuweather had 10-15 feet of surge which is hard to believe, but maybe they were talking for NJ and NYC shores.

40 foot waves is just unimaginable!

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They might be waiting for another suite of models to see if its a real trend and if there's continuity, i think

that is def the reason, they follow continuity and we will need to see the 0z euro run , and wether it is C NJ or down to delmarva again or even over to the gfs, they don't wanna look like tools moving cone north , south, north

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I think you mean Ekman?

There may be a few hour window where it gets quite squally over the interior with embedded +SHRA if that potent LLJ can make it far enough north/inland. Those details still need to be ironed out though this weekend.

Yeah that's a typ-o...ha didn't notice.

Of course, don't mean to say it won't be really f windy with some damage, but the worst of it would sweep inland more proficiently if those west accelerator runs took place.

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If we assume the Euro is still a touch too far south, then I think we would definitely see much higher winds than 20G40 in the interior...probably stuff like 45G60+ wouldn't be too hard to find...esp in the hills...I would expect ORH airport to put up those numbers.

I'm just not sold on gusts of 75mph or greater over the interior yet.

That would still be epic...45G60+

I want to see some YouTube video if folks inland are seeing that.

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GFS through 36 suggests it might be coming a little west, unsure. low placement ever so slightly west through 36. heavier rains further onshore in NC.

It really should be west a bit because it was too far east through the first 6-9. Not huge but... Until we get a determined motion North we're going to see the models have some juggling issues. I bet 12z Saturday we're lock and loaded

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go to the spot they call Ruggles. It's one of the best big wave spots on the ENTIRE east coast. works on a S/SE swell. Go down to the college (salve regina) and it's a spot along the cliff walk. you can drive right to ruggles ave, you can drive right to the break, it is soooo worth it. Waves will be going well over the sea wall and with the backdrop of the mansions it would be breathtaking

You aint getting anywhere near the Ocean if Warnings go up #cops

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