ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I really hope you guys get the wind you are hoping...it'll be such a shame if it's 90mph at 2500ft while under a rain-induced inversion it's only 30-40mph at the surface. I want to see spots like BDL, ORH, BAF, FIT doing 50G75 if all this talk of hurricane force gusts inland is going to come true. To gust over 74mph those sustained winds will need to be high....and seeing sustained 50mph in the interior would be awesome. I doubt the interior gusts to hurricane force....at least at the ASOS stations. Maybe places like Wachusett or other high exposed hilltops have a shot if we get the further north scenarios. The coast is a different story though. The higher winds are very close to the ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I really hope you guys get the wind you are hoping...it'll be such a shame if it's 90mph at 2500ft while under a rain-induced inversion it's only 30-40mph at the surface. I want to see spots like BDL, ORH, BAF, FIT doing 50G75 if all this talk of hurricane force gusts inland is going to come true. To gust over 74mph those sustained winds will need to be high....and seeing sustained 50mph in the interior would be awesome. have you looked at any modeling or read Box disco of worst case gusting over 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 For where they have a chance to occur (most likely Cape Cod to S RI on the coast), maybe 6 hours...but there is a chance there could be a 2nd pulse if the storm takes a wide turn north of the benchmark and then moves W...the 2nd pulse would be as the storm passes our longitude and winds come back out of the south. Ah so you aren't sold on cane winds for Mt Tolland? What are you thinking for interior winds? I'd just be bummed if all the inland ASOS are doing 20G40 after all this hype. You can get NW flow CAA to 50mph, so hoping to see some official 60+ in the interior...not just weenie estimated wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weenie NAM solution. eh yeah - at some point you gotta wonder, when are the depictions going to stop coming out MORE severe and just sort of consistently destructive and deadly - jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Why isn't the cone extended north a bit and reduced to the south? I don't understand with all this guidance of the recent models... They might be waiting for another suite of models to see if its a real trend and if there's continuity, i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So the NAM has 80 knot sustained winds less than 1,000 feet of the ground at CHH, lol. How about nearly 100 knots at 900mb? That's impressive stuff if that ever came to pass. The 12 Z GFS had 110 knots over messenger...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 have you looked at any modeling or read Box disco of worst case gusting over 100 Yeah and I think they were talking about the coast. There is no way in hell the interior sees 100mph dude. I hope you aren't setting that as your expectations. Most METs on here have been mentioning the coast for strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 They might be waiting for another suite of models to see if its a real trend and if there's continuity, i think while the rest of us are already taking action ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Love to know what went down when they decided to make that 5pm cone. 18z tropical models that they have been hugging so tightly are ALL north of their projection. Ah well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ah so you aren't sold on cane winds for Mt Tolland? What are you thinking for interior winds? I'd just be bummed if all the inland ASOS are doing 20G40 after all this hype. You can get NW flow CAA to 50mph, so hoping to see some official 60+ in the interior...not just weenie estimated wind speeds. If we assume the Euro is still a touch too far south, then I think we would definitely see much higher winds than 20G40 in the interior...probably stuff like 45G60+ wouldn't be too hard to find...esp in the hills...I would expect ORH airport to put up those numbers. I'm just not sold on gusts of 75mph or greater over the interior yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, not gonna happen in my opinion...this thing is done, it may have 75 mph winds somewhere once it phases and fully transitions but I'd be amazed if this ever was a true hurricane again. Would it have a better chance to realize those winds back up to 75mph if it fully transitioned or would stronger winds be more likely the longer it retains tropical characteristics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is a much better run for NYC, but it is a more more severe ordeal for Boston Harbor. Also, if it stalls like the 18z NAM ...sort of just S of the Islands, that would keep the strongest winds from penetrating W of I-95 due to Ekman limitations. You really need the instability of lower WAA/warm conveyor to penetrate inland to get the apocalypse on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah... but my car can't go there so well...lol If they close my school (doubtful), maybe I will try to be down there... go to the spot they call Ruggles. It's one of the best big wave spots on the ENTIRE east coast. works on a S/SE swell. Go down to the college (salve regina) and it's a spot along the cliff walk. you can drive right to ruggles ave, you can drive right to the break, it is soooo worth it. Waves will be going well over the sea wall and with the backdrop of the mansions it would be breathtaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is a much better run for NYC, but it is a more more severe ordeal for Boston Harbor. Also, if it stalls like the 18z NAM ...sort of just S of the Islands, that would keep the strongest winds from penetrating W of I-95 due to Eiken limitations. You really need the instability of lower WAA/warm conveyor to penetrate inland to get the apocalypse on land. I think you mean Ekman?There may be a few hour window where it gets quite squally over the interior with embedded +SHRA if that potent LLJ can make it far enough north/inland. Those details still need to be ironed out though this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BOX with some pretty hefty wording: STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. SEAS EXCEEDING 40 FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4 FEET WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION. that's serious stuff with 10.5 tides. would rival or exceed some of the all time events. Sweet jesus. I was waiting for BOX to speak to potential tides, waves and surge. Accuweather had 10-15 feet of surge which is hard to believe, but maybe they were talking for NJ and NYC shores. 40 foot waves is just unimaginable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A hike up blue hill mon pm or tues am sounds good. winds probably gust their to cane force. i would bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 They might be waiting for another suite of models to see if its a real trend and if there's continuity, i think that is def the reason, they follow continuity and we will need to see the 0z euro run , and wether it is C NJ or down to delmarva again or even over to the gfs, they don't wanna look like tools moving cone north , south, north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think you mean Ekman? There may be a few hour window where it gets quite squally over the interior with embedded +SHRA if that potent LLJ can make it far enough north/inland. Those details still need to be ironed out though this weekend. Yeah that's a typ-o...ha didn't notice. Of course, don't mean to say it won't be really f windy with some damage, but the worst of it would sweep inland more proficiently if those west accelerator runs took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Who wants to challenge Darwin to a duel and head on out to the end of Cape Ann - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 UNH cancelled classes through Wednesday morning...not sure if any other schools have yet. Plymouth mentioned the possibility but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Soo UNH has announced it's closed Oct 29+30th in anticipation of Sandy, a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If we assume the Euro is still a touch too far south, then I think we would definitely see much higher winds than 20G40 in the interior...probably stuff like 45G60+ wouldn't be too hard to find...esp in the hills...I would expect ORH airport to put up those numbers. I'm just not sold on gusts of 75mph or greater over the interior yet. That would still be epic...45G60+ I want to see some YouTube video if folks inland are seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS through 36 suggests it might be coming a little west, unsure. low placement ever so slightly west through 36. heavier rains further onshore in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS through 36 suggests it might be coming a little west, unsure. low placement ever so slightly west through 36. heavier rains further onshore in NC. It really should be west a bit because it was too far east through the first 6-9. Not huge but... Until we get a determined motion North we're going to see the models have some juggling issues. I bet 12z Saturday we're lock and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 [ Now THERE'S a once-in-a-lifetime event. LOL I don't know if I've ever seen a cone that's nearly as wide as the distance traveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Take a look at the 12z position for now/tonight. Euro was much slower...and much closer to correct. GFS should come a good bit towards the others now. Bad week to be in Jersey...the poor housewives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS may not keep going NE, so a tick SW is probably in the cards...or a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 go to the spot they call Ruggles. It's one of the best big wave spots on the ENTIRE east coast. works on a S/SE swell. Go down to the college (salve regina) and it's a spot along the cliff walk. you can drive right to ruggles ave, you can drive right to the break, it is soooo worth it. Waves will be going well over the sea wall and with the backdrop of the mansions it would be breathtaking You aint getting anywhere near the Ocean if Warnings go up #cops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Block stronger on this run. As you would have guessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 about 40-50 miles due west of 12z position at hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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