SquatchinNY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM may be the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM is a crusher. Give it no chance of verifying as modeled. Not the scenario, but the details in depiction. Why not? Like I said GFS and NAM could be on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol, LI landfall 960mb pretty much in line with GFS and just North of Euro, obvious to me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Indications to me are that worst winds of entire East Coast event may occur in Southern NewEng, including Boston area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 what angle is the NAM hitting LI from--SE To NW or ESE TO WNW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM may be the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Indications to me are that worst winds of entire East Coast event may occur in Southern NewEng, including Boston area AKT all along, where is HM 8 the Michigan Cowboy LOL seriously now land fall means less and less, North of Landfall wherever it is SNJ to LI gets smoked. even south will have the best frontogenisis. Disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Same track, much larger cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Same track, much larger cone That track looks so disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 capital weather gang R/T that cape may islands being evacuated. can anyone else confirm? Voluntary according to Cape May Herald. Models really seem to be zeroing in on central-north NJ. Just worst case for LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL, looks like happy hour started early at NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just noticed they have it restrengthening to a cane wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Same track, much larger cone I would be shocked if it goes into DE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That track looks so disjointed. that is one strange map.... LOL, looks like happy hour started early at NHC. Well, a testament to how they don't know as much as us. Also screams they don't want to catch heat for the storm hitting somewhere outside the cone. Can't say it doesn't account for every solution possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's those awesome twc maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How long will cane force gusts last? For where they have a chance to occur (most likely Cape Cod to S RI on the coast), maybe 6 hours...but there is a chance there could be a 2nd pulse if the storm takes a wide turn north of the benchmark and then moves W...the 2nd pulse would be as the storm passes our longitude and winds come back out of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just noticed they have it restrengthening to a cane wow Yeah, not gonna happen in my opinion...this thing is done, it may have 75 mph winds somewhere once it phases and fully transitions but I'd be amazed if this ever was a true hurricane again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I assume with the same general bend that's on most guidance? Speaking of your name .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well, a testament to how they don't know as much as us. Also screams they don't want to catch heat for the storm hitting somewhere outside the cone. Can't say it doesn't account for every solution possible... I'm not saying who's right or wrong, that map is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would be shocked if it goes into DE... Because your in Danvers? lol Don't hate my favorite scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not saying who's right or wrong, that map is awful. it looks like they forgot to center the storm or something--oh well-not that important right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Surprised by NHC track and no mention of obvious trend north on models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That 5pm NHC cone seems so far south. Even Montauk LI is barely in the cone. I am surprised it is not further north at least to Martha's Vinyard and Nantucket. On a separate note Sandy is on the verge of becoming a TS. If it doesthe media will be talking about it weakening. For preparation sake it would be best if Sandy could maintain hurricane status before it restrenghtens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BOX with some pretty hefty wording: STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. SEAS EXCEEDING 40 FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4 FEET WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION. that's serious stuff with 10.5 tides. would rival or exceed some of the all time events. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=text&list=ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL, looks like happy hour started early at NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How long will cane force gusts last? I really hope you guys get the wind you are hoping...it'll be such a shame if it's 90mph at 2500ft while under a rain-induced inversion it's only 30-40mph at the surface. I want to see spots like BDL, ORH, BAF, FIT doing 50G75 if all this talk of hurricane force gusts inland is going to come true. To gust over 74mph those sustained winds will need to be high....and seeing sustained 50mph in the interior would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Quite the 90 degree hook on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Honest/dumb question: If the NHC has to constantly expand/change the "cone of uncertainty," doesn't that significantly undermine the usefulness of the cone for purposes of public awareness? Seems like they should just start with a wider cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So the NAM has 80 knot sustained winds less than 1,000 feet of the ground at CHH, lol. How about nearly 100 knots at 900mb? That's impressive stuff if that ever came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Why isn't the cone extended north a bit and reduced to the south? I don't understand with all this guidance of the recent models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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