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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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Cone is narrowing..48 hours before NW turn is forecast to start. how strong is another matter. HPC and NWS discussion seem to think 965 mb is lowest it will go. Models are overzealous for sure but will have to see. Considering Sandy is a 971 mb now, thats more like holding her own with some expansion of the wind field maybe

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True, but I think for the most part the GFS has been steady with a LI landfall. One run when into NJ, but then it correct back north I believe...

It definitely could, but both could happen. GFS tick SW and Euro tick NE. I could see that...whether who caves in one direction more than the other is impossible to say.

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Excerpts from BOXs 4pm disco:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOCUSING ON LITERARY WORKS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS...THERE IS A

DEPENDENCY ON WHETHER SANDY REMAINS TROPICAL OR EVOLVES INTO A POST-

TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS ANOTHER MAJOR UNCERTAINTY. MENTIONED IN

YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM /ESPECIALLY ONE THAT MOVES

FAST/ WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CROSSING H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES

RESULTING IN A LESSER CHANCE OF PHASING WITH BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS

THEREBY REMAINING DISTINCT AND TAKING MORE OF A N/W TRACK /DAISY

1962 AND JUAN 2003/...WHEREAS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE

COMPLETE OPPOSITE /ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOWS/ HAVING A GREATER CHANCE

OF TRACKING LEFT /ESTHER 1961...MID-NOVEMBER UNNAMED SUB-TROPICAL

SYSTEM IN 1981/. IN SUCH CASES THE DOMINANT WAVE WITHIN A NEGATIVELY

TILTED TROUGH INTO THE ERN CONUS USURPED THE WEAKER SYSTEM CAUSING

THE LEFT-HOOK OF THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN PREMATURELY PHASING

SYSTEMS WHILE OVERZEALOUSLY DEEPENING THE CYCLONE. RUN-TO-RUN WITH

THE GEFS INITIALLY EXHIBITED A VERY STRONG ANOMALY WITH SANDY...BUT

HAS LATELY COME DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THAT ANOMALY /SANDY THOUGH

STILL REMAINS AN ANOMALOUS AND HISTORIC SYSTEM/.

IT IS FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE THAT

THERE IS HESITATION THAT SANDY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN DOWN TO A

LOW PRESSURE AROUND 950 HPA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. IN ADDITION

THERE REMAINS CHALLENGES WITH WHETHER SANDY WILL REMAIN TROPICAL OR

POST-TROPICAL...IMPACTING WHETHER IT PHASES WITH THE ANTICIPATED

TROUGH OR REMAINS AN ENTITY UNTO ITSELF. THEREFORE THERE ARE

CONSEQUENTIALLY QUESTIONS AS TO THE IMPACTS AND THREATS ASSOCIATED

WITH SANDY.

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strongest wording ive ever seen from box!!! just in awe

WIND...

WITH THE APPROACH OF SANDY FROM THE S/E...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS

ITSELF TRANSITIONING FROM THE NW QUADRANT TO THE NE QUADRANT AS IT

HOOKS WEST INTO THE INTERIOR NERN CONUS. INITIAL N/NELY FLOW WOULD

BE EXPECTED TO VEER OUT OF THE E/SE. THE ONSET OF WINDS BEGINS

SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE STRONGEST OF

WINDS BASED ON FCST GUIDANCE CENTER AROUND THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO

TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE BEST-CASE...GALE FORCE WINDS /40-54 MPH/ WITH FREQUENT STORM

FORCE GUSTS /55 MPH TO 73 MPH/.

IN THE WORST-CASE...SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS /AT OR GREATER THAN 74 MPH/. WE COULD SEE

GUSTS EXCEEDING 100 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND INTERIOR FLOODING...

WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM CENTER...THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN WILL LIKELY

BE ALONG THE S/W PERIPHERY COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LYR

LIFT. BUT A WARM-CORED SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

CONVEYORING AROUND THE CENTER OF STORM...THE ONSHORE MOIST E/NE FLOW

ROTATING AROUND THE STORM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO OROGRAPHICALLY LIFT

RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 4-8 INCHES /UP TO 10 INCHES

POSSIBLE/ IN A 24 TO 36 HR PERIOD. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IN A SHORTER

PERIOD OF TIME WOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE INTERIOR FLOODING.

IN THE BEST-CASE...HEAVIEST OF RAINS REMAIN WELL S/W OF THE SRN NEW

ENGLAND...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG E

FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR

URBAN AREAS...SMALL RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.

IN THE WORST-CASE...WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS MAY BE IMMEDIATELY

S/W OF THE FCST AREA...A BETTER WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF TROPICAL AIR

WOULD USHER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RESULTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF

RAIN IN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME /1-3 HRS/ WITH LOCALLY HIGHER

AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS

INCLUDING MAINSTEM RIVERS.

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BOX with some pretty hefty wording:

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH

SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. SEAS EXCEEDING 40

FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4 FEET

WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

that's serious stuff with 10.5 tides. would rival or exceed some of the all time events.

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