CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What does the ensemble mean do with Sandy after landfall in S/C NJ? Same track as OP? Stalls in NJ then drifts NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Are we still roaring on Tuesday? Yeah especially LI on north. Will weaken in the evening as winds go SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think there is a chance we see further north movement towards the GFS...the initial north movement by the Euro could just be the start...thoughts? Perhaps, but here is also the chance GFS goes SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Cone is narrowing..48 hours before NW turn is forecast to start. how strong is another matter. HPC and NWS discussion seem to think 965 mb is lowest it will go. Models are overzealous for sure but will have to see. Considering Sandy is a 971 mb now, thats more like holding her own with some expansion of the wind field maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Stalls in NJ then drifts NE. Brutal just brutal means, core winds stay over the water with the same trajectory over multiple tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's bad for any east facing area. Gradient will extend far north. If you don't visit Nantasket or a similar area because I can't... I will never forgive you. Bring a camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Perhaps, but here is also the chance GFS goes SW. True, but I think for the most part the GFS has been steady with a LI landfall. One run when into NJ, but then it correct back north I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you don't visit Nantasket or a similar area because I can't... I will never forgive you. Bring a camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 True, but I think for the most part the GFS has been steady with a LI landfall. One run when into NJ, but then it correct back north I believe... It was also steadily out to sea at one point. It has plenty of opportunity to waver again. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z NAM is more amped up with the troff over the MS valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Beavertail lighthouse, Point Judith should be wild on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 True, but I think for the most part the GFS has been steady with a LI landfall. One run when into NJ, but then it correct back north I believe... It definitely could, but both could happen. GFS tick SW and Euro tick NE. I could see that...whether who caves in one direction more than the other is impossible to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Excerpts from BOXs 4pm disco: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOCUSING ON LITERARY WORKS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS...THERE IS A DEPENDENCY ON WHETHER SANDY REMAINS TROPICAL OR EVOLVES INTO A POST- TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS ANOTHER MAJOR UNCERTAINTY. MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM /ESPECIALLY ONE THAT MOVES FAST/ WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CROSSING H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RESULTING IN A LESSER CHANCE OF PHASING WITH BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS THEREBY REMAINING DISTINCT AND TAKING MORE OF A N/W TRACK /DAISY 1962 AND JUAN 2003/...WHEREAS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE /ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOWS/ HAVING A GREATER CHANCE OF TRACKING LEFT /ESTHER 1961...MID-NOVEMBER UNNAMED SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN 1981/. IN SUCH CASES THE DOMINANT WAVE WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE ERN CONUS USURPED THE WEAKER SYSTEM CAUSING THE LEFT-HOOK OF THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN PREMATURELY PHASING SYSTEMS WHILE OVERZEALOUSLY DEEPENING THE CYCLONE. RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE GEFS INITIALLY EXHIBITED A VERY STRONG ANOMALY WITH SANDY...BUT HAS LATELY COME DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THAT ANOMALY /SANDY THOUGH STILL REMAINS AN ANOMALOUS AND HISTORIC SYSTEM/. IT IS FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE THAT THERE IS HESITATION THAT SANDY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN DOWN TO A LOW PRESSURE AROUND 950 HPA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. IN ADDITION THERE REMAINS CHALLENGES WITH WHETHER SANDY WILL REMAIN TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL...IMPACTING WHETHER IT PHASES WITH THE ANTICIPATED TROUGH OR REMAINS AN ENTITY UNTO ITSELF. THEREFORE THERE ARE CONSEQUENTIALLY QUESTIONS AS TO THE IMPACTS AND THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 massive differences with the shortwave over the states lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing a jet streak developing southeast of Sandy at 300 mb. This places Sandy in the left exit region of that jet, which should help strengthen the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is bizarre and on crack by hour 54 regarding 500mb.... LOL look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 capital weather gang R/T that cape may islands being evacuated. can anyone else confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 strongest wording ive ever seen from box!!! just in awe WIND... WITH THE APPROACH OF SANDY FROM THE S/E...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF TRANSITIONING FROM THE NW QUADRANT TO THE NE QUADRANT AS IT HOOKS WEST INTO THE INTERIOR NERN CONUS. INITIAL N/NELY FLOW WOULD BE EXPECTED TO VEER OUT OF THE E/SE. THE ONSET OF WINDS BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE STRONGEST OF WINDS BASED ON FCST GUIDANCE CENTER AROUND THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. IN THE BEST-CASE...GALE FORCE WINDS /40-54 MPH/ WITH FREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS /55 MPH TO 73 MPH/. IN THE WORST-CASE...SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS /AT OR GREATER THAN 74 MPH/. WE COULD SEE GUSTS EXCEEDING 100 MPH. HEAVY RAIN AND INTERIOR FLOODING... WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM CENTER...THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE S/W PERIPHERY COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LYR LIFT. BUT A WARM-CORED SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS CONVEYORING AROUND THE CENTER OF STORM...THE ONSHORE MOIST E/NE FLOW ROTATING AROUND THE STORM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO OROGRAPHICALLY LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 4-8 INCHES /UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE/ IN A 24 TO 36 HR PERIOD. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE INTERIOR FLOODING. IN THE BEST-CASE...HEAVIEST OF RAINS REMAIN WELL S/W OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG E FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR URBAN AREAS...SMALL RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN THE WORST-CASE...WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS MAY BE IMMEDIATELY S/W OF THE FCST AREA...A BETTER WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF TROPICAL AIR WOULD USHER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RESULTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME /1-3 HRS/ WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS INCLUDING MAINSTEM RIVERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Beavertail lighthouse, Point Judith should be wild on Monday Pt Judith will be big. A spot called Elbow Ledge in Newport will be bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That is one of the discussions that Will and Scott and Ekster pull up in 8 years and we all reminisce. Actually this post will make me reminisce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pt Judith will be big. A spot called Elbow Ledge in Newport will be bigger. Yeah... but my car can't go there so well...lol If they close my school (doubtful), maybe I will try to be down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol at the Nam, It has sandy out towards 69W @hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BOX with some pretty hefty wording: STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH SEAS OF 30 TO 35 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. SEAS EXCEEDING 40 FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4 FEET WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION. that's serious stuff with 10.5 tides. would rival or exceed some of the all time events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Good evidence why you shouldn't even look at the NAM right now. Differences from 12z to 18z @ 500. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM and GFS could be onto something. Biggest Euro run of our lives later tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 capital weather gang R/T that cape may islands being evacuated. can anyone else confirm?. Yeshttp://t.co/2GRrB2Zh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weenie NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM is a crusher. Give it no chance of verifying as modeled. Not the scenario, but the details in depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Still "understanding uncertainty, pushing preparedness", I would make preparations in Central/Southern NewEng for extended outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weenie NAM solution. lol, LI landfall 960mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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