Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i haven't look much for interior areas, but coastal SNE is blasted pretty hard on the EURO. that seaward jog and bend back makes such a difference in the length of time of onshore flow and keeps a tight gradient in place much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 My accuwx euro came out. Doesn't look like cape may? Maybe Beach Haven on mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like it moved south in a closer cluster when I compare it to the 12z suite Yeah, That does not look north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has frightening sustained winds over the ocean pretty much GOM to Ocean City @ hr 90. Impressive. NJ just gets hit crazy hard. 850 winds are just insane to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 New Jersey consensus for landfall FOR NOW for you normal level headed people, so it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW, Sandy initialized east of 12z on the Nam @18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like it moved south in a closer cluster when I compare it to the 12z suite It had a bigger curve NE before coming around to maybe a slightly further north location. Some of these sites have all sorts of different models. I feel like no two are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has frightening sustained winds over the ocean pretty much GOM to Ocean City @ hr 90. Impressive. NJ just gets hit crazy hard. 850 winds are just insane to look at. As would NYC if it hits any where from central NJ on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We were talking about Sandy's westward wobble earlier. She seems to have now hit a brick wall. Looks like that loop may actually occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ec ensembles Sandy hook. Slower and a little north of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ensemble mean says C NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ec ensembles Sandy hook. Slower and a little north of 00z. I assume with the same general bend that's on most guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I assume with the same general bend that's on most guidance? Yeah a little weaker with the trough to the west, but good turn back west thanks to further east displacement of surface low pressure when compared to 00z. right down I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah a little weaker with the trough to the west, but good turn back west thanks to further east displacement of surface low pressure when compared to 00z. right down I-78. does it reach 70W before the bend? i'm kind of seeing that as a key spot. thanks...sorry for the ?s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That seems alot further north than where you suggested landfall? Like Belmar or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Like Belmar or so. Deleted. Had two separate locations confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 does it reach 70W before the bend? i'm kind of seeing that as a key spot. thanks...sorry for the ?s. Yes straddles 70W for a while before turning NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Differences become notable between the GFS camp and Euro camp in the next 6-12 hours. The GFS begins to move the storm pretty steadily north. The Euro is slower and arcs it out NE. By morning the GFS is considerably further NNW than the Euro. We aren't going to have to wait long to see which way this is going. Even at 12h the GFS is off to the races while the Euro is squatting further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NWS Boston @NWSBoston Latest guidance showing a nwd shift in track of #Sandy. Potential destructive storm impacts for SNE with brunt of storm mon into mon ngt. I hope KevinInMA doesn't get mad that I posted this link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro ens mean. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That Euro ens scenario is probably the worst case for NYC and coastal CT. That massive wide turn is going to create an insane fetch. And also prolong the high winds far far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mets ... When do things start. Monday or Monday nite and Tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yep CNJ and NNJ are worst case scenario for CT and NYC. Would like to see it stay CNJ for now because I think it will slip north as we near the event. CNJ or NNJ are probably the worst case scenario overall too because of the prolonged east winds and long fetch all the way up to NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mets ... When do things start. Monday or Monday nite and Tues? Well wider turn means Monday aftn/Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 kevin is going to be all over that lol but seriously we are in for one heck of a storm the euro coming north a bit was a help NWS Boston @NWSBoston Latest guidance showing a nwd shift in track of #Sandy. Potential destructive storm impacts for SNE with brunt of storm mon into mon ngt. I hope KevinInMA doesn't get mad that I posted this link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 we are in uncharted waters here. watching the short term sat loop now might give us a tell on which model to place the most faith in. very, very dangerous days ahead for some of us. Differences become notable between the GFS camp and Euro camp in the next 6-12 hours. The GFS begins to move the storm pretty steadily north. The Euro is slower and arcs it out NE. By morning the GFS is considerably further NNW than the Euro. We aren't going to have to wait long to see which way this is going. Even at 12h the GFS is off to the races while the Euro is squatting further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That Euro ens scenario is probably the worst case for NYC and coastal CT. That massive wide turn is going to create an insane fetch. And also prolong the high winds far far to the north. That's bad for any east facing area. Gradient will extend far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What does the ensemble mean do with Sandy after landfall in S/C NJ? Same track as OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hi guys... been following this discussion for quite a while now, figured I'd actually create an account to ask a question... Suppose a long island/northern jersey hit... what does this bring for those of us up in the Catskill/Adirondack area of NY? Albany? etc... Welcome, Andy Gregorio one of your local Mets posts here all the time and will have great iinsight, keep reading, also Mitch the Met lives near you and will provide much. High winds and torrential rain to upslope East side areas seem a sure bet on that track IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's bad for any east facing area. Gradient will extend far north. I think there is a chance we see further north movement towards the GFS...the initial north movement by the Euro could just be the start...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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